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20 May 2017, Volume 25 Issue 5 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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A Mean-VaR Portfolio Selection Model based on Nonparametric Kernel Estimation Method HUANG Jin-bo, LI Zhong-fei, DING Jie 2017, 25 (5):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.001 Abstract ( 1017 )   PDF (2430KB) ( 744 )   Save Value at Risk (VaR), which is widely used by fund companies, banks, securities firms and financial supervision institution, is one of the most popular risk measurement tools presently. The estimation methods of VaR and portfolio optimization models with VaR have been one of the hot spots in recent years. Since VaR is not a convex risk measure, it is difficult to obtain the global optimal solution of portfolio selection problems based on VaR. Moreover, the present study on portfolio selection with VaR is mostly carried out under normal or ellipsoidal distribution assumptions, which is not consistent with the reality of financial markets. In this paper, nonparametric kernel estimation method is firstly applied to estimate VaR and a nonparametric kernel estimator for asset portfolio's value at risk (VaR) is gotten with distribution-free specification. Then kernel estimator of VaR is embedded into the mean-VaR portfolio selection models and accomplish the goal that financial risk estimation and portfolio optimization are implemented at the same time. It is easy to show that the objective function of our model is smooth theoretically and easy to solve the optimization problem. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to compare the accuracy of our method with the accuracy of classical methods. The simulation results show that our model possesses large sample properties, and outperforms empirical distribution method and Cornish-Fisher expansion method which are usually applied in the classical literatures under the asymmetric and thick tail distribution setting. Finally, our models and methods are applied to the Chinese A stock market. The daily data of SSE 50 Index and its constituent stocks are collected. The data window ranges from January 2nd 2004 to July 8th 2016, with a total of 3040 daily data. The empirical results show that our model can effectively control risk, as well as obtain excess returns relative to the stock index and support effectiveness of our model and application value of this research. It is acknowledged that, in this study, our nonparametric mean-VaR model has these shortcoming:First, our model requires a large number of samples; Secondly, our model is non-convex optimization problem, which is difficult to find the global optimal solution; Finally, it can be seen from the Monte Carlo simulation, sometimes our model cannot give the optimal asset allocation strategy, especially when the number of assets is large and the sample size is small. These questions are left for further research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis Based on Mixing Data Operational Risk with Mixture Parametric Models GAO Li-jun, GAO Xiang 2017, 25 (5):  11-16.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.002 Abstract ( 1079 )   PDF (891KB) ( 935 )   Save Due to the inherent characteristics of operational loss and the data collection problem, the internal data is always insufficient and hardly to get correct and robust estimation. External data is the most recommended supplement data to internal data, but it has inherent biases, and there should be inevitable result deviation if directly mixed with internal data. How to combine external data with internal data is a hard problem and needs discussion. Since the operational data of Chinese commercial banks is scarce, the selection of candidate factors for factor method subjectively, the Bayesian method with strong subjective and the quantile methods assumptions strictly, these application all are limited to Chinese commercial banks. The factors are just splitred as the common component and the idiosyncratic component, and the loss affected by the common factors are equal. Using Macarthur's homogeneity measure, the homogeneity of the internal data and external data is estimated, which enables us to get the idiosyncratic factor of internal and external data. Then the external data is modified using scaling model and combined with the internal data. Since common model can't fit the operational risk well, while the extreme theory model can just modify the tail distribution well, the two-phase mixture model is used to fit the whole operational risk severity distribution. The threshold is set as a parameter is used to be estimated. Considering the continuity constraint at the threshold, it is found that the distribution with log-normal as the body and the generalized Pareto distribution as the tail fits well to the mixture data. With the frequency simulated, the annual loss distribution is gotten. The external data comes from the 10 years collection of our team and the internal data from the bank. The result shows that the external data should be modified before combined to internal data. The threshold selection is more stable and the result more reliable of the mixed data and mixture models. The external data modified method we used has no assumption to distribution similarity, and it gives a reference to the mixture data literature. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Analysis of Merger Strategy in Two-Sided Markets LIU Wei-qi, ZHANG Su 2017, 25 (5):  17-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.003 Abstract ( 1128 )   PDF (910KB) ( 1196 )   Save The merger behavior of platform has been increasing in recent years. The existing research literatures on merger strategy of two-sided markets are still less, and more focused on single-dimensional analysis, that is, vertical merger or horizontal merger analysis. There is no literature that had examined the comparison analysis of pricing strategy of two-sided platform under different merger structures. Considering that, in order to analyze the pricing mechanism problem of two sided platform under different merger structures, this paper constructs a game model, assuming that there are two competing platforms existed in the market and two sided users are single-homing. Based on the model, firstly, it discusses the pricing mechanism of the two-sided platforms under the conditions of no merger, vertical merger and horizontal merger structures. Secondly, the equilibrium solutions obtained by solving the profit maximization problem under different situations are compared and analyzed. Thirdly, the effect of network externality intensity on platform pricing, market share and platform profit under different merger structures is investigated. Research results show that in the aspect of pricing, the complementary products are priced at the lowest level under vertical merger and the highest under horizontal merger, while the users' access fee is related to the intensity of network externality. When network externality intensity is small, the users' access fee is at the highest level under vertical merger and the lowest under horizontal merger; In the aspect of profit, the highest platform profit is obtained under vertical merger. When network externality intensity is small, the platform profit is the lowest under horizontal merger; With the increase of network externalities intensity, the platform profit and the users' access fee are higher, while the price of complementary products for consumers is lower. These conclusions provide an important theoretical basis and referential significant for platform companies to adopt different merger strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Market Structure of Agricultural Insurance, Spatial Dependence and Agricultural Insurance Conditional Convergence HUANG Qi, TAO Jian-ping, ZHANG Hong-mei 2017, 25 (5):  25-32.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.004 Abstract ( 948 )   PDF (1133KB) ( 749 )   Save The tremendous diverse regional characteristic has weakened the universality of agricultural insurance.The root cause is that the agriculture insurance market has a highly oligopolistic market structure.So the essential point of agricultural insurance upgrading is to solve the problem of regional differences of agricultural insurance. In this paper provinces' (cities')panel data and vector data from 2007 to 2014 of China are utilized. First,HHI index HHI=???20170504???(xi)2 is considered to measure agricultural insurance market competition. The second step is to confirm the necessity of adopting spatial dimension by computing the mergence Moran's I index, and Local Moran's I index. Finally effects of agricultural insurance market structure to regional agricultural insurance growth convergence are analyzed by Spatial Econometric Model gyi,t=αi,t+βLnyt-1+ρWgyi,t+γLnHHIi,t+τLnXi,t+μi,t,μi,t~N(0,σi,t2). The following conclusions are drawn:(1) There exists significant spatial dependence on China's agricultural insurance market structure and the density of agricultural insurance; (2) Through the controlling of certain variables, regional agricultural insurance growth follows the convergence theory. The conditional convergence rate is 24.37%, among which 17.725% of the rate of convergence is determined by the agricultural insurance market structure itself, 6.645% of the rate of convergence is determined by the "Spatial Spillover Effect"; (3) In addition, "Crowding Out" concerning finance support agriculture, results in the decrease of development speed of agricultural insurance. The efficient agricultural insurance claims will produce "Demonstration Effect", leading to the enthusiasm of the agricultural insurance improvement. This research has improved itself with the important theoretical significance and practical value to enrich and develop the theory and method of regional agricultural insurance and to improve the policy of agricultural insurance convergence development. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis and Statistical Inference of Crude Oil Price Change Points CHAI Jian, LU Quan-ying, ZHOU You-hong, XING Li-min, WANG Shou-yang 2017, 25 (5):  33-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.005 Abstract ( 1011 )   PDF (1404KB) ( 964 )   Save The crude oil is of dual attributes, strategic and financial. Oil price fluctuations attract attention around the world, especially the oil price fluctuation change point is considered more important for energy finance industry. Based on this idea, an exploratory research direction is introduced in this paper. Monthly international crude oil prices were taken as the study objective and the PPM-KM integration model was established by extending product partition model (PPM) to adapt to measure, cluster, and identify the posterior probability of change points of international crude oil price. First, this paper measured the mutations posteriori probability of the oil price based on the PPM model in order to distinguish and analyze the mutations of the oil price, and gave the result of the tolerance threshold and mutations of commodity price combined with K-Means clustering method. Second, the Poisson distribution, power-law distribution, and logarithmic-normal distribution were used to build statistical inference model to the catastrophes description, and then corresponding probability distribution functions for simulation and analyses of the monthly crude oil price change point trends were constructed. The results showed that there were 37 significant breaking points in the period of 1986 to 2015. At different time points, the imbalanced structure of market supply and demand, unexpected events, the dollar index, the global geopolitical economic development situation the main oil mutations as the main cause of crude oil price fluctuation respectively. By fitting the distribution of the time interval of change points, this paper preliminary think the time interval of monthly international crude oil price change points obeys power-law distribution assumption is reasonable. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Profit Distribution of Collaboration in Mega Project Supply Chain SHI Qian-qian, ZHU Jian-bo, SHENG Zhao-han 2017, 25 (5):  42-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.006 Abstract ( 1072 )   PDF (1470KB) ( 1005 )   Save The collaboration of contractor and supplier in mega project has a significant help for the production schedule enhancement and quality improvement of key equipment and prefabrication resources. Therefore, the owner often takes a variety of incentives to encourage the collaboration between contractor and supplier such as the establishment of prizes, which the distribution mechanism of benefit will influence the collaboration performance. In order to promote the collaboration and enhance the performance, the collaboration of contractor and supplier in mega project is taken as the object of the research. Based on the differences of decision environment, decision order and decision purpose, two dynamic game models which are decentralized decision making model and centralized decision making model are designed. Given the difference between contractor and supplier, the model highlights the weight of contribution. Then the best profit distribution mechanism, the best effort and the best benefit are given. Also comparative analysis and numerical modeling are taken. The research shows that when contractor's effort and supplier's effort all have the impact on the output, the profit must be shared which can incent the enthusiasm of collaboration. The distribution coefficient is only affected by the weight of output contribution. The contractor's distribution coefficient is positively correlated to his own weight of output contribution, while is negatively correlated to the supplier's weight of output contribution. The best effort and best revenue are negatively correlated to the cost coefficient of either side. When the bilateral moral hazard exists, the contractor's benefit in decentralized decision making model is higher than its in centralized decision making model, so contractor prefer to choose decentralized model, while the supplier is inverse. It is also indicated that the benefit of the supply chain system is optimal in centralized decision making model. The research will have a great help for decision making and strategy selection of contractor and supplier in their collaboration. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quantity Flexible Procurement Strategy Under Random Yield HE Bo, ZHANG Xia 2017, 25 (5):  52-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.007 Abstract ( 1113 )   PDF (1300KB) ( 794 )   Save Random yield of the upstream supplier is often seen in the semiconductor, electronics and chemical industries, which has a significant negative impact on the downstream manufacturer's operations. Since the major supplier's (risky supplier) yield is random, to mitigate supply risk, the manufacturer can procure from an alternative reliable supplier (QF supplier) with quantity flexibility contract. So, the manufacturer faces a problem of how to determine its procurement strategy in the presence of random yield. Using stochastic modelling and optimization, the manufacturer's optimal procurement decisions are investigated under deterministic and stochastic demand, respectively. The structural properties of optimal solutions are analyzed and the conditions under which the quantity flexibility procurement policy should be used are identified. Furthermore, by theoretical analysis and numerical computations, the effect of random yield, flexibility, wholesale price and demand risk on the procurement decisions are examined. It is found that the higher supply risk and demand risk reduce the manufacturer's expected profit but have different impacts on the manufacturer's order decisions. For the QF supplier, it may not obtain more orders by providing larger flexibility to the buyer,on the contrary, doing this may benefit the risky supplier. For the QF supplier or risky supplier, given its competitor's wholesale price, it can increase its order share by lower wholesale price. Our results can facilitate the manufacturer to mitigate its supply risks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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How to Generate Cooperative Performance through Inter-organizational Information Systems Capabilities ZHU Shu-ting, ZHONG Wei-jun, MEI Shu-e 2017, 25 (5):  61-69.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.008 Abstract ( 1033 )   PDF (1047KB) ( 859 )   Save The emerging business networks bring opportunities and challenges to the applications of inter-organizational information systems (IOS). To reveal the mechanism of how IOS generate cooperative performance in the network embedded environment, the theoretical model is built from the IT process perspective to leverage IOS capabilities and inter-firm process ambidexterity through network embedded level. Survey data are collected from 213 manufacturing firms in China. According to the hierarchical regression analysis result, it is found that inter-firm processes alignment and flexibility positively interact to impact on the cooperative performance, while IOS integration capabilities and IOS reconfiguration capabilities have positive correlation with inter-firm process ambidexterity respectively. In contrast to previous research, it is found that network embeddedness has negative moderation effects, high level of network embeddedness will undermine the effect of IOS capabilities on inter-firm process, which shows the paradox of embeddedness. Our findings deepen and expand the framework of IT business value in information systems field, and provide inspiration and guidance for network practices of applying IOS to create value. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Virus Based on Cooperative Genetic Algorithm Automated Warehouse Space Optimization Model LI Peng-fei, MA Hang 2017, 25 (5):  70-77.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.009 Abstract ( 1170 )   PDF (1823KB) ( 733 )   Save Automated warehouse is an intricate system of storage, and slotting optimization problems directly affect the efficiency of the Automated Warehouse. To solve the dilemma of location selection of automatic stereo warehouse, a Slotting Optimization model which take the out of storage efficiency and shelf stability of storage as its optimization factors is proposed, the Multi-objective mathematical model of Slotting Optimization is established. According to the actual conditions of Automated Warehouse, with the help of Strategy Set Transformation, Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) are used to determine the weight. And virus combined with genetic algorithm is taken to simulate the optimization model. In the MATLAB software environment, the Multi-objective genetic algorithm for virus is utilized to calculate the model solution. Finally, the results comparison among the simulation of the data before Slotting Optimization, the data after virus combined with genetic algorithm and the data after traditional genetic algorithm indicates that Virus Cooperative Genetic Algorithm(VEGA) can effectively optimize the automation stereoscopic warehouse slotting. It is also a kind of effective way to improve the efficiency of goods out of storage and stability of shelf. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Tabu Search Algorithm for the Vehicle Routing Problem with Soft Time Windows and Split Deliveries by Order FU Zhuo, LIU Wen, QIU Meng 2017, 25 (5):  78-86.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.010 Abstract ( 1287 )   PDF (1059KB) ( 1060 )   Save As an important type of vehicle routing problem, split delivery vehicle routing problem, which can be divided into two subtypes, split deliveries without restriction (by unit) and split deliveries by order, has broad applications such as distribution vehicle routing optimization and so on. In most of the present research of split delivery vehicle routing problem, customers' demands can be split without restrictions. However, in practical, sometimes a customer order consists of several cargos and could not be split during deliveries. So the cargos in the same order can only be delivered by the same vehicle. In that condition, customers' demands can be split in orders while a specific order could not be split. In addition, more and more customers have time window requirement during the distribution process. Considering this two respects, the vehicle routing problem with soft time windows and split deliveries by the order and its optimization algorithm are presented. The problem allows that the same customer can be serviced by multiple vehicles and the customer demand can be split but not split a specific order. Customers can be served either in the specified time windows or out of the time windows with according punishment. A mixed integer programming model for the problem is constructed and a tabu search algorithm for the model is proposed. The proposed algorithm was coded and tested on the problems which are based on the benchmark problems generated by Solomn. The computational results are compared with the ones in related literatures. It shows that the algorithm converges well and effectively solves the problem. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effects of Subsidy from WEEE Fund and Market Cooperation on Formal Recycling Channel LIU Hui-hui, LIU Tao 2017, 25 (5):  87-96.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.011 Abstract ( 1166 )   PDF (1479KB) ( 760 )   Save At present, most of China's waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) flows into the informal recycling channel without disassembling qualification, which exerts a big competitive effect on the formal channel with disassembling qualification. Faced with the serious e-waste problem, how to support formal channel and promote the regulated WEEE recycling has become a major concern for China. In the current literature, there is a lack of research on the impact of subsidy and market cooperation on the formal channel, based on the recycling competition between formal and informal channels. This paper aims to study the role of government subsidy and market cooperation in supporting the formal channel. On the one hand, the formal channel can be provided dismantling subsidy by the China Recycling Fund. On the other hand, the different disposal methods are examined between the two channels and the market mechanism in which the formal channel cooperates with a remanufactureris introduced. As such the formal channel can sell the high-quality old products to the remanufacturer for remanufacturing. The recycling competition between formal and informal channels is firstly studied, and a game model with quality-based acquisition pricing is established. Based on the different disposal methods between two channels, three competition scenarios are set and the equilibrium solutions are solved respectively. The acquisition pricing of the two channels in different quality levels of old products and the pricing decision of the remanufacturer in the transfer of old products are examined. The influence of subsidy on recycling competition is discussed, and the role of market cooperation in improving the competitiveness of formal channel is analyzed. Furthermore, the changes of acquisition prices are a numerically simulated at different quality levels of old products in three scenarios. Based on the recycling practices in China, the recycling industry corresponding to each scenario of the model is analyzed. The results show that fund subsidy can effectively improve the competitiveness of the formal channel. When the subsidy is not very high, market cooperation can play an important supporting role to the formal channel. The demarcation point in the roles of fund subsidy and market cooperation depends on the relative value of subsidy level and the transfer price of old products for remanufacturing. When remanufactured products are more popular in the market, the transfer price provided by the remanufacturer will be higher, which can help the formal channel enhance its competitiveness in the product acquisition. Our paper provides a modeling framework for the following research based on the competition between formal and informal channels and has practical significance in promoting the regulated development of recycling industry in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research onNash Equilibrium Strategies by Considering Brand Effect in Multi-Products' and Multi-Manufacturers' Supply Chain JI Shou-feng, JIANG Li-wen, SUN Qi, YU Hai-fei 2017, 25 (5):  97-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.012 Abstract ( 1217 )   PDF (1692KB) ( 727 )   Save With the rapid development of Internet technology, many manufacturers begin to adopt the dual-channel strategy, such as Benz、Nike and some other enterprises have been gained much benefits by adopting this distribution pattern. But with the introducing of direct channel, some conflict and competition arise between online and offline channels. How to coordinate this situation, make a better integration between online and offline channels bring a new challenge for the scholars and businessmen. APP served as an effective media to connect online and offline channels, and brings many benefits for enterprises; therefore many enterprises begin to consider whether to develop APP and what effects may arise in their production and distribution systems. In addition, two kinds of substitutable products produced by two manufacturers, and one manufacturer's product has a stronger brand effect, how the brand effect of a product and the substitutability between two kinds of products influence the performances and the pricing strategies of production and distribution systems are also considered, these make the research more close to actual. Thus, according to media richness theory and spillover Effect theory, richness of APP is added into the demand model, sub-game Nash equilibrium are obtained under four different channel selection and pricing strategies by backward induction, by comparing the total profits of production and distribution systems before and after develop APP to decide channel selection strategies, furthermore, analyzing the effect of APP richness, brand effect and the substitutable degree of the products on pricing strategies. The study results can be summarized as follows. Firstly,the channel price, market demand and total profits increase with the brand effect of the product, enterprises should improve brand image to attract more consumers and make much more benefits for themselves; Secondly, with the substitutability of the products increase, the total profits and price of production and distribution systems both decrease, therefore enterprises should pay attention to increase product differentiation, and focus on the R&D of APP richness; Finally, the market demand and total profits both increase with the richness of APP, and two manufacturers both choose to develop APP are Pareto optimal strategies. Future research may consider the problem of Cournot competition between manufacturers, prices depend on the uncertain demand and the empirical methods to explore how to improve the APP richness are worth studying. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Bertrand Model based on Contracts for Difference for Inhibiting Market Power PU Yong-jian, SUN Xian-hua 2017, 25 (5):  109-115.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.013 Abstract ( 1155 )   PDF (1141KB) ( 1182 )   Save In this paper, the market power inhibiting effects of contracts for differences are studied. Due to oligopolistic characters owned by the electricity market, it is of great importance to focus on methods that could help restricting the market power of generators. The contract for differences is considered an effective way to control market power according to former researches, but the model we propose has the following characters that make our research special and creative. First of all, it is based on Bertrand model, which is properly applied in the electricity market, without adding any exogenous factors suggesting the relationship between the bidding price and the electricity quantity. It provides conditions that guarantee positive profit of generators. Secondly, Lerner index is introduced to the model for assessing market power. The main parts of this paper include the Nash equilibrium of generators in an identical duopoly electricity market (which is gained by analyzing the best responses of each generator), the superior limit of both equilibrium price and Lerner index, the conditions to guarantee positive profit and illustration of identical duopoly electricity market by data simulation. Finally, the conclusion that the absolute electric quantity contract for difference has inhibiting effect on market power in an identical duopoly electricity market is drawn through the movement of the superior limit of Lerner index. This research provides a tool for other researches that consider using Bertrand model for analyzing contractual problems in electricity market, which is not often used in former researches due to the zero profit of classical Bertrand model, though it actually matches the electricity market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Player Participation on the Evolution of Cooperative Behaviors in Scale-free Networks XIE Feng-jie, WU Xiao-ping, CUI Wen-tian, CHEN Zi-feng 2017, 25 (5):  116-124.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.014 Abstract ( 1068 )   PDF (1KB) ( 842 )   Save The evolution of cooperation in prisoner's dilemma game (PDG) and snow game (SG) on scale-free networks has been explored in this study. One-shot two-person game is played between neighbors on scale-free networks. Players have two possible strategies, cooperate or defect, and the strategies evolve according to the update rule of limited population analogue of replicator dynamics. Different from previous studies in which a player can interact with all his neighbors in every round of the game, this work proposes a new interaction pattern of players. A player can interact with at most W neighbors in every round of the game, who are named as interacting-neighbors. The value of W reflects the limited time and energy of players, and thus describes the limited interaction level of players in a networked PDG and SG. Results indicate that a high-level of cooperation in PDG and SG can be achieved on scale-free networks as long as high-connectivity players interact with a small fraction of their neighbors, and the interaction levels of players have significant positive effects on cooperation. These results suggest that even if individuals in real world have limited time and energy to interact with each other, they could still preserve cooperation because their interactions are rooted in actual scale-free networks. Moreover, high-connectivity individuals such as leaders or directors in an organization, who generally prefer interacting with each other in real world, play an important role in the evolution of cooperation. Current work provides a new interaction mechanism in networked game and contributes to understanding the emergence of cooperation in real society. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis on the Main Manufacture-Supplier Cooperative Strategies of Airliner Based on Dynamic Games of Incomplete Information YI Kai-kai, ZHU Jian-jun, ZHANG Ming, WANG He-hua 2017, 25 (5):  125-134.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.015 Abstract ( 1228 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 1116 )   Save The consideration of how hard for main manufacture with poor capability to control supplier with strong capability, and leading to the first flight of new aircraft delay. Discussing the collaborative equilibrium strategy of airline on the "main manufacturer-suppliers" model. Focusing on the characteristics of the main manufacture of aircraft with short developing time in China and poor core technical capability of subsystem, but cooperating with the supplier can mostly solve the problem of production, with the result that the supplier's attitude of cooperation will influence the quality and efficiency. In the consideration of the incentive effect of profit distribution and order quantity, and the induction to supplier of incomplete information in the main manufacture's core technical capability, using Cobb-Douglas production function to show the profit of supplier and main manufacture, which leads to the collaborative game model under incomplete information between the main manufacture and supplier.Discussing the equilibrium strategies and existence conditions, making the comparison of them and finding the strategy which makes higher profit. Results show that the profit distribution coefficient and order quantity will influence collaborative strategies, and and main manufacturer uses pooling strategy is strictly better than separating strategy. With the case analysis,we get the optimum strategy of small batch with high profit distribution coefficient and large batch with low coefficient. This paper reveals the suppliers' collaborative attitude motivation issue from the perspectives of main manufacture collaborative strategies, and it has an important guiding significance for the long-term strategic cooperation between the main manufacture and supplier of airliner. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Customers' Choice Behavior on Pickup Point Location CHEN Yi-you, ZHANG Jin, LUO Jian-qiang 2017, 25 (5):  135-144.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.016 Abstract ( 1180 )   PDF (1145KB) ( 925 )   Save Last mile delivery (LMD) problems have become increasingly prominent with the rapid development of e-commerce. And traditional home delivery service can't meet customers' demand. Pickup service provides customers with a more flexible distribution solution, gaining scale benefit of LMD and reducing the delivery pressure of the city logistics system. Pickup point location is a strategic decision for enterprises to broaden customers' pickup mode and promote market share of LMD. In contrast with other logistics facilities, pickup point is a direct terminal to customers, and customers have a choice in whether to receive service from pickup point in the region or not. In order to maximize the customers' total pickup demand, it is necessary to put emphasis on how customers choose the pickup points to patronize. To this end, assuming that customers' pickup distance and pickup points' attraction are two important attractiveness attributes considered by customers. Based on the competitive location and gradual coverage theory, a piecewise utility function between customer and pickup point is constructed. Under this circumstance, two alternative models are respectively presented with the MNL model and demand elasticity function:in the "probabilistic-choice model", a customer may patronize each pickup point with a certain probability, which increases with the attractiveness of available pickup point. In contrast, the "optimal-choice model" stipulates that each customer will go to the most attractive pickup point. Both models are formulated as a mixed-integer program. To solve the problems efficiently, an immune algorithm is proposed and a random example is used for verification. The results show that pickup point's coverage distance, customer rational degree and demand elasticity coefficient affect the location decisions. In particular, the comparison between the two models indicates that the choice behavior of the customer has a significant impact on the pickup point location decisions, and a thorough empirical investigation of this behavior prior to choosing a model is necessary. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Empirical Study of Influential Elements of Mobile Social Marketing CHE Cheng, QI Xiao-lin, MA Wan-qi, SHAO Dong-yan 2017, 25 (5):  145-149.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.017 Abstract ( 1614 )   PDF (867KB) ( 1477 )   Save With the development of communication technology, mobile social network and other cutting-edge new media have become a new marketing tool for enterprises. The effect of mobile social marketing is obvious to all, but the influence factors and action path of mobile social network marketing remains to be further researched. After reviewing the literature, 17 factors influencing the application of mobile social network by companies in four aspects including leadership strategies, brand management, customer relationship, resources and ability are proposed. Based on the surveys on 103 companies in Qingdao, factor analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis are applied to conduct the empirical research on factors affecting the mobile social network in the improvement on companies' marketing effect. The results show that the brand management factor is the most influential factor to the marketing effect. Application mode, customer relationship, leadership strategies have a significant positive correlation with mobile social network marketing effect. The input of recourses and technology also plays an important role. The conclusion is more comprehensive to reflect the influence factors and mechanism of the enterprise marketing in the mobile social network environment, which has great reference value for the enterprise to implement the mobile social network marketing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Researching on A Grey Common Prediction Modeling with Strong Compatibility and Its Properties ZENG Bo, LIU Si-feng, QU Xue-xin 2017, 25 (5):  150-156.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.018 Abstract ( 944 )   Save The complicacy of predictive modeling object gives rise to the diversity of form and mutual non-compatibility of structure of grey models. A grey common prediction modeling with powerful compatibility (CGPM) is established through putting the lagged item of dependent variable, corrective terms of linear and constant into grey model. The transformation conditions and equivalence properties between CGPM model and multivariable grey models which include GM(1, N) and GM(0, N) and single variable grey models including GM(1, 1), DGM(1, 1) and NDGM(1, 1) are proved in this paper. The effectiveness of CGPM model is verified by some calculation examples. The study findings have some positive significance for optimizing the structure of grey model and improving the commonality and universality of grey model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Emission Reduction Effects and Its Spatial Heterogeneity of Rural Water Environmental Policy Based on Discrete Grey Model ZHANG Ke, MA Cheng-wen, FENG Jing-chun, XUE Song 2017, 25 (5):  157-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.019 Abstract ( 2306 )   Save With the growing pollution of rural water environment in China, accurate emission reduction measurement of rural water environment management is significant for the subsequent policies. It is difficult to effectively measure the effects of different kinds of policies due to the relatively small amount of data as well as its non-stability characteristics. Therefore, a multivariate discrete grey model is introduced to measure the emission reduction effect and then an empirical research is conducted. Firstly, the policies related to rural water environment management since 1995 are sorted out, and then they are classified into different groups and some representative policies are selected respectively according to the contents and targets. Secondly, the amount of different kinds of water pollutants emission is computed using the unit investigation and evaluation method. Furthermore, different groups of policies are introduced as virtual driven variables into the model, and competitive models strategy is adopted by setting a series of emission reduction measuring models. By comparing the adaptability among those models, the most adaptive model is selected to measure the emission reduction effect of different policy groups respectively. The research results show that rural water environment management policies are effective in general. Meanwhile, there exists certain difference about the emission reduction effect among three groups of policies. Moreover, the effect displays a spatial-clustering feature at province level. Lastly, some countermeasures are proposed to improve the management of rural water environment in China. It is hoped that the study will provide some reference for measurement of policy effectwith insufficient data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research of Tourist Flow Hybrid Forecasting Model for Tourism Emergency Events CHEN Rong, LIANG Chang-yong, LU Wen-xing, DONG Jun-feng, GE Li-xin 2017, 25 (5):  167-174.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.020 Abstract ( 1114 )   Save Because of sudden explosiveness and destructiveness as well as information asymmetry caused by tourism emergency events, the tourist flow deviates from original patterns and presents nonlinear and linear features, which causes a great difficulty to tourist flow forecasting. Traditional forecasting methods cannot solve this complicated problem. The article proposes a kind of tourist flow hybrid forecasting model for tourism emergency events which include two methods. One method is Support Vector Regression (SVR). It has good ability to deal with nonlinear and small sample problems and has been successfully used in many forecasting fields by researchers. The other method is Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) which can deal with linear problem easily. At same time, the three parameters C,ε,σ of SVR affect the accuracy of forecast. A kind of Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO) is used in the article. By the local search ability of Chaotic Local Search(CLS) as well as global search ability of Adaptive Inertia Weight Factor (AIWF) in CPSO, the optimal parameters C,ε,σ of SVR can be found effectively. The detail process of tourist flow hybrid forecasting model is as follow. Firstly SVR is used to forecast tourist flow during emergencies. Meanwhile, CPSO is implemented to select the SVR parameters; Secondly ARIMA model is provided to forecast residual sequence of forecasting values. Finally two predicted values will be added, which leads to the final predicted values. Data set from Mount Huangshan during Wenchuan Earthquakes period are used to validate the effectiveness of the hybrid models. The number of the data is from February 12, 2008 to June 12, 2008, including the daily tourist flow and daily tourist flow before eight o'clock. The results show that the hybrid approaches are significantly higher in accuracy than CPSO-SVR and PSO-SVR., which provide an effective choice to tourism emergency events flow forecasting as well as similar industries facing the same situation.Next researches will focus on tourist flow forecasting under the background of big data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Organizational Internal Learning, External learning and Organizational Performance in Corporations: The Moderating effect of Organizational Structure and Environmental Dynamism CHEN Guo-quan, LIU Wei 2017, 25 (5):  175-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.021 Abstract ( 1327 )   PDF (1KB) ( 939 )   Save Based on the literature and theoretical reasoning, models and hypothesis about relationships among organizational learning (internal learning and external learning), organizational structure (mechanistic structure and organic structure), organizational environment (environmental dynamism) and performance are built from the perspective of contingency theory. With a sample of 213 Chinese companies, Hierarchical Regressions are proposed to examine the moderation. Evidence is found to be consistent with the hypotheses by showing that the impact of organizational learning, both internal learning and external learning on organizational performance are moderated by organizational structure and environmental dynamics. The higher the dynamic environment and the lower the mechanistic structure (the higher the organic structure), the more obvious the effect of organizational learning, both internal learning and external learning, on performance. It is also found that the interaction effect between internal learning and external learning on organizational performance was more significant in organic structure and stable environment. While in mechanistic and dynamic environment, internal learning and external learning don't have synergistic effect on performance. In this study, factors that influence the effect of organizational learning from both inside and outside of organizations are combined to discuss, which makes a comprehensive understanding about how to create better condition and environment for performance improvement. Chinese companies should emphasize both internal and external learning, and integrate the two learning styles by structural design and environmental recognition. Finally, the limitations of the study are analyzed and the future development direction is proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Corporate Social Responsibility and Earnings Management: Based on the Empirical Study of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock A-share Manufacturing Listed Companies in China SONG Yan, TENG Ping-ping, QIN Chang-cai 2017, 25 (5):  187-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.05.022 Abstract ( 1438 )   PDF (1KB) ( 1004 )   Save In this paper, listed manufacturing companies are taken for the study, based on 2012-2014 panel manufacturing sector listed company data, by using statistical software STATA 12 to study the impact of corporate social responsibility accrued earnings management and real earnings management. For a measure of corporate social responsibility, evaluation system of corporate social responsibility is constructed in the method of factor analysis.The index of scientific technological innovation, quality and safety is used in the evaluation system,the composite score for each enterprise as a measure of social responsibility; for measurement of accrued earnings management, the modified Jones model is used to measure discretionary accrual earnings management; for real measure of earnings management, Roychowdhury approach is taken to integrate abnormal product costs, abnormal flow from operating activities net, abnormal discretionary expenses as a true three-part activity measure of earnings management. The results show that:Listed manufacturing firms will also use accrued and real earnings management in two ways, and the Corporate Social Responsibility and accruals earnings management, real earnings management showed a significant negative correlation, suggesting that corporate social responsibility is a kinds of ethical behavior, the better social responsibility fulfill, the more transparent information disclosure, thereby inhibiting earnings management behavior. Results of this study to further enrich the research of corporate social responsibility and earnings management, It provides guidance and advice for the supervision of the manufacturing sector. References | Related Articles | Metrics