Table of Content

20 June 2015, Volume 23 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Weighted Composite Quantile Regression Method of Dynamic VaR risk Measure and Their Applications LIU Xiaoqian, ZHOU Yong 2015, 23 (6):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.001 Abstract ( 2459 )   PDF (948KB) ( 2430 )   Save Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most popular methods of measuring financial asset risk in the current finance industry. Calculating unconditional risk measure values based on autoregressive models (AR) is widely used in industries. Further investigation of this problem is valuable both in theory and application. In this paper, an estimating approach for autoregressive models based on weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) is proposed. This new approach can make full use of information from several quantiles to improve the efficiency of parameter estimators, and given different weights for different quantiles regression, which result in making the estimation more efficient. The proposed estimator is shown to have asymptotic normality. Finite sample studies illustrate that when the error follows a non-normal distribution, the statistical properties of WCQR estimators are similar to those of maximum likelihood estimators. It implies that the proposed estimator is strongly competent to the existing estimators because the error is free of a specific distribution. The proposed method has a good application in the calculation of dynamic VaR. The empirical results via analyzing nine Chinese closed funds show that the VaR values based on WCQR method is similar to those based on the non-parametric method. In addition, one pronounced advantage based on the proposed WCQR estimation is that it can be used to calculate and forecast the values of dynamic VaR for asset returns. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-stage Stochastic Programming Model for Active and Dynamic Government Bonds Investment Strategies YIN Li-bo, HAN Li-yan 2015, 23 (6):  9-16.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.002 Abstract ( 1864 )   PDF (1584KB) ( 2923 )   Save A multi-stage stochastic programming (MSSP) model for investment in government bond portfolios is proposed in a dynamic setting, an active dynamic strategy under uncertainty is derived. The uncertainty is modeled by discrete scenario trees including the levels, slopes and curves of interest rates, and the growth rate of broad money supply, which reflect the dynamic evolution of the term structure of interest rates. The model minimizes the CVaR of the government bond portfolio with comprehensive consideration of safety, liquidity and profitability, and achieves an effective balance between risk and the expected return. Empirical results show that the MSSP model outperforms traditional duration vector immunization approaches significantly, in terms of stronger competence in profit generation and risk control, which provides a flexible and effective decision support for active management of government bond investment by financial institutions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Overnight Risk of Exchange Rate Research Based on CAViAR JIAN Zhi-hong, PENG Wei 2015, 23 (6):  17-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.003 Abstract ( 1889 )   PDF (1206KB) ( 1681 )   Save Currently, there is little quantitative analysis literature about the impact of dollar exchange rate on the overnight of other markets. Overnight-AS model and Overnight-SAV model are proposed in this article to measure the overnight risk of exchange rate based on AS mode and SAV model of CAViaR. Then these models are used to measure the risk of Yen exchange rate, HK exchange rate and RMB exchange rate,which select from 2009 to 2014 and then the pros and cons of each model are compared. The results show that Overnight-AS model and Overnight-SAV model are better than AS model and SAV model. Overnight-AS model is better than Overnight-SAV model. The overnight risk of these three exchange rates are affected by lag risks and RMB exchange rate are suffered the biggest risk. Fluctuations in the dollar index will increase the overnight market rates of these three risks. The impact of the RMB exchange rate by the dollar index is less than HK exchange rate and Yen exchange rate. The impact of the weaker dollar on overnight risk is greater than the impact of the stronger dollar. New ideas and methods for the management of exchange rate overnight risk are provided in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Credit Asset Securitization, Heterogeneous Investors, and Financial Risk LIN Min-hua 2015, 23 (6):  25-31.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.004 Abstract ( 1936 )   PDF (1217KB) ( 2061 )   Save Gennaioli,Shleifer and Vishny[1] investigate only one type of investor with local thinking and argue that financial fragility is caused by investors neglecting some risks.However,bonds from credit asset securitization are allowed to be traded by not only institutional investors but also individual investors in China, which is different from the fact of developed capital markets.Different types of investors have great heterogeneity, which may make GSV's model not work in China. Based on the standard model of Gennaioli,Shleifer and Vishny[1], another model is developted, in which two types of investors who have heterogeneous investor time preferences and who have heterogeneous investor beliefs caused by overconfidence are considered to study the effect of investor irrationality on financial risks. It is found that, contrary to Gennaioli[1],investor irrationality won't cause banks the overissuance of bonds securitized by credit assets, which provides the theoretical evidence for Chinese government's decision that bonds securitized by credit assets will be traded in the exchange. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Shanghai Stock Index Volatility:Forecasting Research Based on Fuzzy FEGARCH Model and Different Distribution Hypothesis HOU Li-qiang, YANG Shan-lin, WANG Xiao-jia, CHEN Zhi-qiang 2015, 23 (6):  32-40.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.005 Abstract ( 1825 )   PDF (973KB) ( 1767 )   Save In general, the transmission of volatility in the stock market is time-varying, nonlinear, and asymmetric with respect to both positive and negative results. Given this fact, the method of fuzzy logic systems is adopted to modify the threshold values for an EGARCH model.The volatility forecasting for the SSEC stock index series from 2006 to 2011 is provided and the essential source of performance improvements is identified between distributional assumption and volatility specification suing distribution-type (GARCH-N,GARCH-t,GARCH-HT and GARCH-SGT)and asymmetry-type(GJR-GARCH and EGARCH) volatility models through the superior predictive ability test. Such evidence strongly demonstrates that modeling asymmetric components which is the fuzzy EGARCH model is more important than specifying error distribution for improving volatility forecasts of financial returns in the presence of fat-tails,leptokurtosis, skewness, leverage effects and nonlinear effects in china stock market. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing of European Options Based on Tsallis Distribution and Jump-diffusion Process ZHAO Pan, XIAO Qing-xian 2015, 23 (6):  41-48.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.006 Abstract ( 2012 )   PDF (1214KB) ( 1728 )   Save The accurate description of the motion law of asset prices is the foundation of pricing and controlling risk of derivatives. The distribution of yields often has a peak, fat or skewed tail, because of influence of the external environment of financial market. Tsallis distribution has the characteristics of long-term memory and statistical feedback. So, the peak or fat tail of yields can be captured, through fitting non-extensive parameter qof Tsallis distribution. In addition, asymmetric jump processes can fit the skewed tail of returns. Tsallis distribution and renewal jump process are employed in this paper, then, an abnormal jump diffusion model of share price movements is established. In the risk-neutral condition, the pricing formulas of European options were obtained by using the stochastic differential and martingale method. But, in the literature of Merton[11], the model employed the Poisson jump process and normal distribution. The literature of Borland[21] only used Tsallis distribution without considering the skewed tail of yields. Therefore, they were included in our model as special cases. Using the actual data of China's shanghai index, the parameters of the models and the mean absolute error of yields are calculated,respectively. The results showed that the mean absolute error of our model was reduced respectively by 10.4% and 25.1% compared with ones of the literature 11 and 21.It explained that our model can fit accurately the motion law of asset prices. In addition, our model can also be used to price or measure and control risk of other derivatives, such as warrants and other types of options. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Research of Intra-dayPeriodic Adjustment Based on Ultra High Frequency Data WANG Wei-guo, SHE Hong-jun 2015, 23 (6):  49-56.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.007 Abstract ( 1847 )   PDF (1138KB) ( 2982 )   Save Intra-day periodicity has been widely found in financial high frequency data study,It is a dynamic effect characterized by intra-day periodic motion and it affects the accuracy of econometric model estimation which contains intra-day financial variables. The importance of intra-day periodic adjustment is discussed firstly in this study and then introduces self-organizing maps as a intra-day periodic adjustment solution are introduced based on financial ultra high frequency duration data. The SOM method is a feature extraction on the basis of neural network learning which can recognize the dynamic feature in high-dimensional data in order to overcome the disadvantage of static periodic adjustment. Finally a monte carlo simulation through autoregressive conditional duration model is built to compare the effects of three intra-day periodic adjustment methods. The result shows that the SOM method performs more effective and stable.Therefore SOM method can be particularly suited for analysis of periodic structure in big data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Selection and Evaluation of Asset Portfolios Over Multi Horizons by DEA Combing Value and Momentum Strategies YANG Hong-lin, CUI Yan-chen, ZHA Yong, CHEN Shou 2015, 23 (6):  57-64.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.008 Abstract ( 1994 )   PDF (1543KB) ( 1857 )   Save The methods of DEA are used to integrate effective value and momentum indicators in this paper. By such a integration, new asset portfolios are constructed. And using the expected return (ER) and risk-adjusted return (RAR) evaluates their efficiencies relative to traditional portfolios. The investigations for CSI 300 show that the portfolios consisting of high DEA performance stocks are significantly higher than CSI 300 portfolio. And their values of ER and RAR also exceed those portfolios from single value and winner strategies. Meantime, the hedge trade strategy, which simultaneously holds the long position of high DEA performance portfolios and the short position of low DEA performance portfolios,is designed to bring investors obviously excess returns over relatively long horizons. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Quota Allocation Mechanism based on Historical Emissions of Carbon LINGHU Da-zhi, YE Fei 2015, 23 (6):  65-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.009 Abstract ( 1844 )   PDF (1625KB) ( 1713 )   Save According to the current realities of industry and the target of carbon reduction,companies are classified into two categories: high and low ranked by the carbon emission per unit item and introduce' the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities'. Considering history of carbon emissions and incentive by profit margins, a carbon quota allocation policy is present. Based on the allocation policy, a Cournot duopoly model is employed to study the influences on the two categories of reduction targets, quota allocation policy and carbon emission per unit item. The result shows that the quota allocation policy has a positive sensitivity on carbon emission per unit item; generous allocation focusing on low-ranked has a stronger incentive utility on those companies. Moreover, progressive-stage reduction mechanism has a positive effect on both incentive utility of implement a low-carbon and steady implementation of policies. The study highlights the importance of verification on the carbon emissions and also extends the perspectives of research and mechanism design on carbon reduction and will contributes to carbon reduction in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Supply Chain Network Equilibrium with Loss-averse Retailer and Multi-products Flow ZHANG Gui-tao, HU Jin-song, SUN Hao, Mazalov, XU Meng-die 2015, 23 (6):  73-82.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.010 Abstract ( 1695 )   PDF (1125KB) ( 1803 )   Save Supply chain is a complicated system which can be formulated as a network consisting of manufacturer tier, retailer tier and demand market tire. Based on the Prospect Theory, the decision makers prefer risk-averse when facing the uncertain revenue, and the retailers are usually confronted with uncertain demand and profits. To describe the dynamic characteristic of the supply chain network, the decision making time is discreted into multi-period planning horizons. The decision-making environments of various players in a planning period are stable, while may be changing in different planning periods. The manufacturers make various types of products, and the risk-averse retailers deal with a corresponding consumer market with stochastic demand. Prospect theory is adopted to describe the loss-averse behaviors of retailers, and the transferring inventory is used to express the relationship between adjacent periods. The optimal decision behaviors of manufacturers, retailers and demand markets are modeled by variational inequalities, Lagrange duality theory and complementary theory, and then the governing supply chain network equilibrium is obtained. In turn, the solving method with modified projection contraction algorithm is designed. Using numerical examples, the characteristic of two breakeven points of retailers is obtained and the impact of the loss-averse coefficients in different periods on the optimal strategies of various players is analyzed. The results show that when the loss-averse coefficients of retailers increase, the first breakeven points of the retailers decrease and the second breakeven points increase; the order quantity of the retailers decrease, and their expected profits and expected utilities increase. On the contrary, it will be harmful to the manufacturers and consumers; when the stock-out cost increase, the retailers have to order more products to avoid stock-out losses, but meanwhile increase the possibilities of surplus; when the loss-averse coefficients change in a certain period, the retailers and manufacturers should adjust their strategies in the whole planning horizons accordingly.The supply chain risk management theory will be enriched and references for dynamic supply chain modeling are suggested in this study. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effects of Platform Service and Logistics Service on Online Store Owners' Confidence HE Xi-ming, HU Sai-quan, YI Cheng, LIU Xia 2015, 23 (6):  83-90.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.011 Abstract ( 2138 )   PDF (847KB) ( 1696 )   Save Unlike the traditional retailing context, store owners on e-commerce platforms have to rely on services provided by the platforms as well as third-party logistics services to serve their customers. Store owners' confidence in their business, in general, determines their future investment decisions and also plays an important role in the long-term development of the platform. However, no current research has investigated the effects of the two kinds of service, platform services and logistics services, on store owners' confidence in the context of e-commerce platforms. This study aims to explore the effects of platform service and logistic service on online store owners' confidence, and how such effects differ for stores with different levels of reputation. To test the research model,a large-scale survey on Taobao, the largest e-commerce platform in China was carried out, and responses from 3995 store owners were collected. Based on the survey data, ordered logistic model was adopted to analyze the role of platform and logistics service played on store owners' confidence. The results show that platform service and logistics service both have significant effects on online store owners' confidence. Moreover, the impact of platform service is larger for stores with higher reputation, while the impact of logistics service does not vary significantly for stores with different levels of reputation. Also, stores with higher reputation rely on platform service more than logistics service. These findings shed some light on the practical decisions of platform managers in terms of how to distribute limited resource into platform and logistic service. The results also contribute to the literature on e-commerce platforms and online services. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dual Channel Pricing Strategy under Retailer Stackelberg Leadership LIU Han-jin, FAN Xiao-jun, CHEN Hong-min 2015, 23 (6):  91-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.012 Abstract ( 1741 )   PDF (2160KB) ( 2025 )   Save Aiming at the channel structure of retailer Stackelberg leadership, the channel effect when one manufacturer introduce direct online channel is discussed in this paper based on the consideration of both the different channel efficiencies and the product online acceptation degree of customer. Some results are showed that when the distribution efficiency of online channel is lower than the distribution efficiency of traditional channel enough, the sales in traditional channel will increase after the introduction of online channel. If the pricing strategy of fixed wholesale price is adopted, when the product online acceptation degree of customer is low and the distribution efficiency of online channel is lower than the distribution efficiency of traditional channel, the introduction of online channel is beneficial to the manufacturer, the retailer and the channel. Then, the introduction will be successful to the manufacturer. Under other conditions, the introduction of online channel is beneficial to the manufacturer and the channel, but disadvantageous to the retailer. As a result, the channel collision will appear. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decisions on the Minimum Order Quantity of Supply Chain Based on Asymmetric Demand Information DING Ping, FU Chao, XIAO Ming, ZHAO Jing 2015, 23 (6):  99-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.013 Abstract ( 1859 )   PDF (867KB) ( 1802 )   Save In a two-hierarchical decentralized supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer, the supplier generally protects his/her own profits by means of determining minimum order quantity (MOQ). Sometimes demand information is asymmetrical between the supplier and the retailer; that is, the retailer catches the complete demand information but the supplier only knows the distribution of price-sensitive factor in the demand information. In this situation, how to determine MOQ becomes an important problem that the supplier faces. For this problem, from the marketing point of view, a profit maximization model is constructed based on Stackelberg game. Suppose the supplier knows that the price-sensitive factor in the demand follows normal distribution. The optimal MOQ in the model is then determined by strict mathematical deduction. The proposed determination method of the optimal MOQ is applied in the sales supply chain to determine the optimal minimum storage capacity sold by cloud storage supplier, which demonstrates the rationality and validity of the proposed method. Experimental results show that setting MOQ by the proposed method exactly increases the profits of the supplier. More important, the proposed method can significantly promote the research on supply chain coordination considering MOQ. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing and Coordination Decision of the Dual Channel Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering the Customer Preference CAO Xiao-gang, ZHENG Ben-rong, WEN Hui 2015, 23 (6):  107-117.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.014 Abstract ( 1868 )   PDF (1533KB) ( 2629 )   Save The pricing strategies and coordination mechanism are studied in the closed-loop supply chain based on channel competition. The equilibrium pricing strategies of the manufacturer-leading Stackelberg game and the Bertrand competition game are obtained. Furthermore, the influences of some key parameters in the model including consumer preference coefficient and remanufacturing cost savings on the optimal pricing decision and the profits of the channel members are analyzed. Then, to balance the centralized decision-making results for reference, a simple price mechanism and profit sharing mechanism are used to achieve the perfect coordination of the combination of the dual channel closed-loop supply chain. Finally, through the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, the effect of the consumer preference coefficient on the profit of the channel members and the dual-channel closed-loop supply chain system is explored. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision-making and Performance Analysis of S-M Closed -Loop Supply Chain with Two-Echelon Remanufacturing DING Bin, MA Hai-qing 2015, 23 (6):  118-125.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.015 Abstract ( 1773 )   PDF (1375KB) ( 1766 )   Save Suppliers are decision-makers which can't be ignored in the studies of remanufacturing, because the suppliers' decision would be influenced by the manufacturers' product remanufacturing strategy, and the suppliers have a choice whether to participate the parts remanufacturing or not under supplier-dominated. In order to discuss the influence of two-echelon remanufacturing (product remanufacturing and parts remanufacturing) on the members' pricing decision and revenues, Stackelberg game theory is used to analyze two models according to whether the supplier is involved in the parts remanufacturing or not, then a comparative analysis on the pricing decisions and revenues is made. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn from this paper: with the implementation of remanufacturing strategy, the pricing decision of wholesale price relate to the demand situation, and the pricing decision of retail price relate to the recycling risk situation; The supplier should take an active part in the two-echelon remanufacturing strategy, because it is beneficial for the supplier to provide parts that can be used to remanufacture, and it will not only increase the both members' revenues but also reduce the both wholesale price and retail price if the supplier takes part in the activity of parts remanufacturing. Finally, the conclusions are demonstrated by a numerical example. The research results about the impacts of remanufacturing strategies on pricing decisions and revenues are enriched. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Disruptions Coordination Model of Fresh Agricultural Products under Time Constraints with Asymmetric Information WU Zhong-he, CHEN Hong, LIANG Cui-lian 2015, 23 (6):  126-134.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.016 Abstract ( 1988 )   PDF (1349KB) ( 1637 )   Save As a sort of special and spoiled product, fresh agricultural product has a fair corruptive and wastage character. Additionally, the fresh agricultural product supply chain exists universally the phenomenon of information asymmetry in the process of production, supply and sale, and this brings great loss to the fresh agricultural product, and brings great difficulty to the supply chain management. On the other hand, the disruptions such as SARS, H1N1 flu relating to the fresh agricultural products occur frequently in the recent year, and these disruptions make tremendous influence to the production, sale, demand and the confidence of the food safety which being cared by the consumer. So, it is very important and urgent for the fresh agricultural product supply chain to explore the strategies to coordinate the disruptions. This is just the origination of the question for the paper. In this paper, focusing on a fresh agricultural products supply chain system composed of one supplier and one retailer which restrained by transport time, and by supposing the retailer's cost being a private information, we study how to coordinate the supply chain to response to the disruptions while they cause the retailer's cost distribution function fluctuated, in order to provide the theory basis to the decider. A fresh agricultural product supply chain coordination model is constructed under symmetrical and asymmetric information firstly. Secondly, it is supposed that the disruption should cause the fluctuant to the retailer's cost distribution, and supply chain coordination model is proposed based on disruption environment by drawing (leading) into deviation cost so as to adjust the production plan. Finally, an optimal analysis to the model is provided and some management strategies relatively are suggested. Based on asymmetric information of the retailer cost, firstly, the coordination model of the fresh agricultural product supply chain under symmetrical information is given. Secondly, the centralized system and the decentralized system decision mechanism are analyzed under the condition of asymmetric information. Finally, the optimal response strategy is investigated under the retailer's cost distribution fluctuation caused by disruption. The study results show that it is the optimal decision to keep the original production plan of the fresh agricultural product supply chain based on time restrain unchanging when the expectant cost of the retailer fluctuates to a small extent with asymmetric information of the cost of the retailer, and it can keep the system operating normally. When the degree of the expectant cost fluctuation of the retailer exceeds the robustness zone, the supply chain can achieve coordination only if the original production planning, the wholesale price and the retail price must be adjusted. In the part of data emulation and analysis, a living example according to the feature of thefresh agricultural product supply chain restrained by transport time is designed under the asymmetric information, furthermore, the influence suffered by wholesale cost, sale quantity, retail price, the supplier's expectant profit, the retailer's profit and the expectant profit of the whole supply chain system while the cost distribution of the retailer fluctuated caused by the emergent event are analyzed. Finally, the validity of the model on response to the disruption is verified. In brief, a fundamental train of thought and a frame for coordinating the fresh agricultural product supply chain under asymmetric information to response to disruptions to the other related researches are provided in this study. Moreover, it can be used for reference to the other related studies in how to coordinating the supply chain under asymmetric information to response to disruptions. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Purchasing Decisions with Materials Prices Fluctuation and Random Makespan under MTO Environment HU Sheng-qiang, ZHANG Bi-xi, WANG Ling-ling, CHENG Shuo 2015, 23 (6):  135-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.017 Abstract ( 1828 )   PDF (1221KB) ( 1723 )   Save For the Small and Medium Production Enterprises(SMPEs) under MTO(Make-to-order) environment, materials provision in time and schedules as planed are the key factors, which affect delivery time. In reality, the price of some materials fluctuates over time continuously, and because of other random inserted orders, staff turnover, equipment failures and rework owing to the poor quality of some products etc, the makespan is random. For the decision of materials ordering, the traditional methods mainly consider the beginning date of the order and minimizing the materials purchasing costs but regardless of the random makespan. Based on the system considering about internal supply chain integration and minimizing the total costs, When the materials price fluctuates over time and the makespan is random, it considers how to model, analyze and solve the problem of getting the optimal decision of ordering date, so that the total costs (it includes the costs of materials procurement, manufacturing, delay in delivery or in advance) are lowest. For the case of a single type of materials, the existence of the minimum points by extreme method is discussed.When the types are more than two, a constraint nonlinear optimization model with multi-variables is built by the algorithm of PHR. Then, the numerical examples show the validity of the models. The above ideas about integrated procurement and production, the methods about model building and problems solving would give references to some relevant persons. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Method for Combination Weighting Experts Based on Information Entropy and Cluster Analysis CHEN Yun-xiang, DONG Xiao-xiong, XIANG Hua-chun, CAI Zhong-yi 2015, 23 (6):  142-146.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.018 Abstract ( 1800 )   PDF (894KB) ( 2232 )   Save In terms of the research of multi-attribute group decision-making, a method for combination weighting experts is put forward based on information entropy and cluster analysis so as to scientifically determine the weight of every expert. According to the experts' collating vectors obtained by normalization of corresponding judgment matrixes, correlation matrix is constructed by the correlation coefficient. Through the analysis of change rate of threshold, the optimal clustering threshold is selected and the higher priority vector similarity obtained the reasonable clustering. The experts' weight of within-class can be ascertained by the theory of information entropy weight. The experts' weights are determined according to the result of classification and information entropy of collating vectors. Finally, a numerical example shows that the method is effective for the higher priority vector similarity classification and can accurately weighing every experts' information. The method will effectively improve the rationality of determining experts' weight and contribute to scientific group decision-making. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Analysis of Float Calculation in the Hierarchical Network LI Xing-mei, ZHANG Qian, WEI Han-jing, QI Jian-xun 2015, 23 (6):  147-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.019 Abstract ( 1701 )   PDF (1417KB) ( 1729 )   Save The current network planning technique is mainly concern with single-layer network, which lacks the efficiency in guiding the production of large-scale manufacturing project. The production process of large-scale project whose activities are tens of thousands is complex, which brings extremely difficulty in describing the corresponding network. However, according to the hierarchical network technology, a complex network can be divided into several simple sub-networks, which means a large type of network can be transformed to a single-layer network, and single-layer network technology can be used to analyze the complex network. In this paper, based on the process of building a large type of network, the issue that how to simplify the network of large-scale project is studied in this paper, several single-layer networks is divided, and the calculation of the float in hierarchical network is carried out. Finally, correctness and feasibility of the conclusion are illuminated through example analysis. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Relationshipamong TMT Heterogeneity, Strategic Change and Improvement of Corporate Performance——Empirical Study Based on Non-Diversified Enterprises with Declining Performance LI Wei-ning, LI Li 2015, 23 (6):  153-161.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.020 Abstract ( 1893 )   PDF (862KB) ( 1873 )   Save Based on Upper Echelons Perspective, this study focuses on corporations with declining performance to analyze relationship among TMT heterogeneity, strategic change (including strategic variation and strategic deviation) and improvement of corporate performance. Choosing the data from 2005 to 2013 as variables, an empirical research of 145 Chinese listed non-diversified companies which had CEO successions during 2008-2010 after firm performance declined is carried on. It is shown that TMT tenure heterogeneity and strategic variation are negatively related, and that strategic deviation has a negative effect on the improvement of corporate performance. As exploring the direction of strategic change, it is discovered that strategic variation has a U-shaped relationship with improvement of corporate performance; strategic deviation has an inverted U-shaped relationship with improvement of corporate performance. A new perspective for researches about transformative strategy of non-diversified enterprises with declining performance is provided, and a basis for Chinese enterprises to select TMT is also proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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How do Leaders Promote Cooperation? The Effects of Self-sacrifice and Emotional Expression GAO Pei-xia, LI Chang-hong 2015, 23 (6):  162-168.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.021 Abstract ( 2482 )   PDF (909KB) ( 2556 )   Save Previous studies have found mixed results regarding the influence of positive and negative leader affect on follower performance. In addition, the effect of leaders' self-sacrifice on followers' cooperation need to explore broader range of leader behaviors to refine theories of charismatic leadership and cooperation. It is proposed that leader expression will not be ignored. So the present laboratory experiment was conducted to test the interaction effect in the content of social dilemma. The result shows that both self-sacrifice and leader sadness expression engender more cooperation. Though the interaction role is not significant, the positive effect of self-sacrifice is most strongly only when the leader expresses happiness. The present results are discussed in light of prior research on self-sacrifice and the emotion as social information model (EASI) in general and suggestions are made that future research needs to focus more on the emotional character of leadership and the psychological processes underlying these effects, especially in the context of Chinese Culture. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Green Supply Chain Game Models and Revenue Sharing Contract with Product Green Degree JIANG Shi-ying, LI Sui-cheng 2015, 23 (6):  169-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.201.06.022 Abstract ( 2668 )   PDF (1219KB) ( 2888 )   Save The living standards and environment requirements of consumers are greatly improved as the rapid development of the global economy. And the transformation of economic development mode is driven by consumers demands,so the green supply chain mode considering resource consumption and environmental impact is adopted, which based on the traditional supply chain. In this context, how to work with the retailers downstream supply chain, how to determine the wholesale price w and product green degree g for manufacturers; How to respond to the needs of consumers and manufacturers, to determine the optimal product prices p for retailers; As well as how to establish coordination mechanism between the two to coordinate their interests, all these are the problems to be solved. Based on the above issues, the Stackelberg game and Nash Equilibrium game theories are used to establish game models in this paper,and the Revenue Sharing Contract theory is used for coordinating green supply chain members. Firstly, four game models are established based on manufacturer and retailer,and their optimal decision variables are determined. Furtherly, Four game models are conducted a comparative analysis in terms of product green degree, product price and wholesale price.On this basis, further consideration of using revenue sharing contract is taken to coordinate manufacturers and retailers.Finally, a numerical simulation is given in order to validate the models. It is shown that the product green degree is the highest in case of centralized control mode, while it is the lowest in case of stackelberg game led by manufacturer.In management practice, in order to promote consumers to buy a higher degree of green products, manufacturers and retailers can implement revenue sharing, and the revenue sharing coefficient range should be (0.40,0.48]for the best. The data used in numerical simulation, is primarily collected through surveys of green industries, manufacturing companies, retail companies and consumers, as well as reference to the relevant literatures.The game behaviors and coordination strategies of the green supply chain inside members are discussed in this paper, and it promotes the research about green supply chain from the outside supply chain to inside.In addition,a preliminary green supply chain coordination model from the perspective of quantitative research is provided is this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics