中国绿色债券发展的国际比较：评估与动因探索

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0043

Abstract

Abstract:

As a targeted financing channel for green and low-carbon projects， green bonds have developed rapidly around the world， but there are some different specific conditions for each country. However， the existing literature lacks an assessment and analysis of green bond development at the national level. This knowledge gap obstructs understanding the development trend of China's green bonds from a global perspective. So， it is crucial to comprehensively evaluate the global green bond development level and detect the determinants behind the differences among economies.In this paper， the green bond issuance record data of 62 countries or regions from 2014 to 2020 are collected to conduct comprehensive empirical research. With the application of the principal components analysis method， a systematic assessment of the green bond development in various economies is conducted firstly； then， some national clusters are obtained through the K-means cluster algorithm， which suggests some heterogeneities and homogeneities for different economies； To detect the rationales for the global differences in the development of green bonds， multiple linear regression， and ordinal Probit model are utilized sequentially.The empirical results show that the different economies display different levels and speeds in developing green bonds. Three categories of determinants could affect the development level of green bonds in a country， namely macroeconomic fundamentals， financial system， and low-carbon transition environment. Regarding specific determinants， the intensity of targeted green bond promotion policies is the most critical driving force for the development of green bonds.Some targeted policy recommendations are provided for China， in the field of capturing the development tendency of global green bonds， optimizing the development path of green bonds， and promoting green bonds to support the carbon-neutral actions. Additionally， this paper fills the current research blank in evaluating the development of green bond， whose conclusions can effectively support further exploration of this emerging domain.

Key words: green bonds, carbon neutrality, green financial market development, policy support

CLC Number:

F831.5

Boqiang Lin,Tong Su. International Comparison of China's Green Bond Development: Evaluation, and Determinants Exploration[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(10): 66-75.

Figures/Tables 8

References 22

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指标	指标含义	衡量方式
发行金额	从体量角度上衡量绿色债券市场规模	发行量/GDP
发行支数	从数量角度上衡量绿色债券市场规模	当年发行绿色债券支数
发行人个数	衡量绿色债券发行参与的多样化水平	绿色债券发行人当年累计个数
发行成本	绿色债券的直接发行效率	当年发行绿色债券的平均票息
发行方涉及行业数	绿色债券的行业覆盖多元化水平	绿色债券当年累计涉及行业
绿色债券的期限结构数量	绿色债券期限结构多元化水平	绿色债券当年累计期限结构数量

聚类	国家
第一梯队	法国、美国、瑞典
第二梯队	德国、荷兰、挪威、中国
第三梯队	奥地利、澳大利亚、巴西、比利时、丹麦、芬兰、韩国、加拿大、卢森堡、马来西亚、墨西哥、日本、瑞士、西班牙、意大利、印度、英国、智利、中国台湾、中国香港
第四梯队	阿根廷、阿联酋、埃及、爱尔兰、巴拿马、冰岛、波兰、俄罗斯、菲律宾、斐济、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、格鲁吉亚、哈萨克斯坦、捷克、卡塔尔、肯尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、罗马尼亚、秘鲁、纳米比亚、尼日利亚、葡萄牙、沙特阿拉伯、斯洛文尼亚、泰国、土耳其、乌克兰、希腊、新加坡、新西兰、匈牙利、印度尼西亚、赞比亚

变量类别	变量名称	符号	衡量方法	数据来源
因变量	绿色债券发展程度	GBM	发展指数	作者计算
基本面变量	经济规模	GDP	GDP取对数	世界银行WDI
	经济发展程度	Dev	人均GDP	世界银行WDI
	通货膨胀水平	CPI	CPI	世界银行WDI
金融制度变量	资本管控程度	TF	Chinn-Ito指数	Heritage 基金会
	金融市场发展水平	FD	金融市场发展指数	IMF IFS数据库
	监管质量	RQ	监管质量指数	世界银行WGI
	法制水平	RL	Rule of law指标	世界银行WGI
绿色低碳转型变量	碳排放	CO2	二氧化碳排放量取对数	BP能源统计年鉴
	气候风险	CR	截至2020年各国（地区）气候风险指数	Germanwatch
	碳市场发展	ETS	碳市场发展分数^①	ICAP年度报告
	绿债推动政策	Policy	绿色债券政策强度^②	Green finance platform

解释变量	全样本				OECD国家（地区）	非OECD国家（地区）
解释变量	（1）	（2）	（3）	（4）	（5）	（6）
GDP	3.081^***			1.315^**	4.848^***	0.435
GDP	(0.77)			(0.72)	(1.38)	(0.59)
Develop	2.121^**			-3.067^**	-1.277	-2.372^**
Develop	(0.86)			(1.43)	(3.34)	(1.05)
CPI	-0.216			-0.036	-0.010	-0.079
CPI	(0.12)			(0.08)	(0.39)	(0.07)
TF		-0.663^**		-0.765^***	-1.157^***	-0.348
TF		(0.29)		(0.25)	(0.31)	(0.23)
FD		16.680^***		7.532	-6.289	4.730
FD		(4.71)		(4.87)	(8.99)	(6.11)
RQ		9.250^**		11.460^***	16.540^***	3.914
RQ		(4.58)		(3.39)	(5.35)	(2.57)
RL		-0.121		3.343^**	3.074	4.697^**
RL		(2.16)		(1.97)	(3.57)	(2.28)
CO2			-0.500	-0.929	-1.146	-0.899
CO2			(1.11)	(0.99)	(1.28)	(1.07)
CR			-1.521	0.427	4.805	-0.343
CR			(2.17)	(2.40)	(4.23)	(1.51)
ETS			1.469	-0.768	-0.230	0.606
ETS			(0.48)	(0.52)	(0.87)	(0.66)
Policy			5.862^***	5.538^***	5.641^***	4.310^***
Policy			(1.23)	(0.86)	(0.86)	(0.79)
Constant	-10.520	36.033^***	12.029	79.17^2***	70.671^**	53.493^**
Constant	(8.48)	(17.12)	(8.85)	(21.96)	(31.07)	(21.20)
年份固定效应	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
观察值	420	420	420	420	239	181
R-squared	0.405	0.420	0.435	0.599	0.642	0.606

变量	有序Probit	边际效应
变量	有序Probit	①	②	③	④
GDP	0.977^***	0.043^***	0.034^***	0.055^***	-0.133^***
GDP	(0.14)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.02)
Dev	-0.419^***	-0.019^**	-0.015^**	-0.024^**	0.057^**
Dev	(0.19)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.03)
CPI	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	-0.001
CPI	(0.02)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
TF	-0.175^***	-0.008^***	-0.006^***	-0.010^***	0.024^***
TF	(0.03)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)
FD	1.402^**	0.062^*	0.049^*	0.079^**	-0.191^**
FD	(0.72)	(0.03)	(0.03)	(0.04)	(0.10)
RQ	2.381^***	0.106^***	0.083^***	0.134^***	-0.324^***
RQ	(0.56)	(0.03)	(0.02)	(0.04)	(0.07)
RL	1.016^***	0.045^***	0.036^***	0.057^***	-0.138^***
RL	(0.32)	(0.02)	(0.01)	(0.02)	(0.04)
CO2	-0.203^**	-0.009^*	-0.007^*	-0.011^*	0.028^*
CO2	(0.10)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)
CR	0.233	0.010	0.008	0.013	-0.032
CR	(0.21)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.01)	(0.03)
ETS	-0.147^*	-0.007^*	-0.005^*	-0.008^*	0.020^*
ETS	(0.08)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.01)
Policy	0.377^***	0.017^***	0.013^***	0.021^***	-0.051^***
Policy	(0.09)	(0.00)	(0.00)	(0.01)	(0.01)
年份固定效应	控制
观察值	420
R-squared	0.549

International Comparison of China's Green Bond Development: Evaluation, and Determinants Exploration

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变量	主回归	Tobit	截面回归	熵权法GBM
变量	主回归	Tobit	截面回归	多元回归	有序Probit
GDP	1.315^**	1.316^*	3.351^**	7.701^*	0.267^***
GDP	(0.72)	(0.70)	(1.65)	(4.73)	(0.08)
Dev	-3.067^**	-3.072^**	-9.229^**	-30.525^***	-1.084^***
Dev	(1.43)	(1.40)	(3.48)	(11.37)	(0.14)
CPI	-0.036	-0.036	0.035	-0.530	0.013
CPI	(0.08)	(0.24)	(0.10)	(0.53)	(0.02)
TF	-0.765^***	-0.766^***	-1.198^***	-4.145^**	-0.034^*
TF	(0.25)	(4.77)	(0.41)	(1.70)	(0.02)
FD	7.532	7.540^***	14.811	77.380^**	1.631^***
FD	(4.87)	(3.33)	(10.08)	(33.38)	(0.50)
RQ	11.460^***	11.470^***	21.846^**	65.015^***	1.084^***
RQ	(3.39)	(1.94)	(8.89)	(23.74)	(0.36)
RL	3.343^**	3.346*	7.393	16.170	0.703^***
RL	(1.97)	(0.97)	(5.11)	(16.34)	(0.23)
CO2	-0.929	-0.935	-3.623	-6.892	0.130^*
CO2	(0.99)	(2.36)	(2.64)	(6.51)	(0.07)
CR	0.427	0.436	2.612	14.945	0.527^***
CR	(2.40)	(0.51)	(5.15)	(16.49)	(0.16)
ETS	-0.768	-0.768	-1.347	-0.814	0.162^***
ETS	(0.52)	(0.85)	(1.16)	(4.28)	(0.05)
Policy	5.538^***	5.543^***	5.874^***	42.825^***	0.376^***
Policy	(0.86)	(0.85)	(1.73)	(6.56)	(0.08)
Constant	79.172^***	79.250^***	173.561	482.862	N/A
Constant	(21.96)	(21.56)	(42.26)	(157.54)	N/A
年份固定效应	控制	控制	N/A	控制	控制
观察值	420	420	60	420	420
R-squared	0.599	0.113	0.606	0.639	0.283

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