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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (7): 77-88.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.07.008

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The Spillover Effects of China's Monetary Policy on the United States——An Analysis based on the Two Countries' Open DSGE Model

ZHAO Xing1, CUI Bai-sheng2   

  1. 1. School of Economics, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2. School of Finance and Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
  • Received:2017-10-31 Revised:2019-06-05 Online:2020-07-20 Published:2020-08-04

Abstract: In recent years, with China becoming one of the world's major economies, the spillover effect of China's monetary policy on other countries has become a new topic. The open new Keynesian DSGE model is built to analyze the Chinese monetary spillover effects on the United Sates. The model includes three departments which are family, firm and monetary authority. Bayesian estimation method is used to estimate the dynamic parameters. There are two monetary policy rules used by the monetary authority. One is the interest rate rules. The other is the money supply rule. The results show that the monetary policy of China under the two monetary rules has the same direction of spillover to the economic variables of the United States, but there are still differences in the size of spillover effect. The spillover effect of interest rate reduction in China's money supply to the United States interest rate is obviously greater than the spillover effect of interest rate directly on interest rate. China's money supply policy is not as good as the smoothness of the interest rate policy. China pays more attention to inflation, output and exchange rate under the interest rate rules than it does under the rule of money supply. Therefore, from the perspective of China's domestic objectives of monetary policy and the coordination of international monetary policy, Taylor's rule is more suitable for China's current economic situation, and can reduce the impact on US macroeconomic variables while achieving the domestic objectives of stabilizing prices and economic growth.

Key words: open economy, monetary policy, spillover effect, DSGE model

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