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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (10): 35-46.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1920

• Articles • Previous Articles    

The Time-varying Effects of Monetary Policy Rules on International Capital Flow and RMB Exchange Rate—— Empirical Test Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

LI Chenggang1,2, LI Feng1, ZHAO Guanghui2   

  1. 1. School of Big Data Applications and Economics, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China;2. School of Business Administration, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China
  • Received:2019-11-23 Revised:2020-03-04 Online:2021-10-20 Published:2021-10-21

Abstract: The main regulatory goals of traditional monetary policy rules are output and inflation, which have a good effect on the stability and development of the macro-economy.With the deep integration of the world economy, the frequent inflow and outflow of international capital and the violent fluctuations of foreign exchange market, which all together have caused the expanding volatility of China’s economy. Therefore, in an open economy, the stability of international capital flows and exchange rate are consideredvital economic indicators that a country's central bank shouldtake into seriousconsider when formulating monetary policy. However, there are disagreement on whether quantitative or price rules are more effective in stabilizing international capital flows and RMB exchange rate. In view of this, the “multi-objective” monetary policy rule theoretical model is construated to stabilize international capital flow and RMB exchange rate. And using monthly data from January 1998 to November 2019, the TVP-SV-VAR model is established in an open economyto empirically test the time-varying and dynamic impact of money supply shock and interest rate shock on international capital flow and RMB exchange rate under different monetary policy rules. The results show that: (1) An different time periods, the impact of monetary policy shock on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate have strong time-varying characteristics. (2) The equal interval impulse response shows that the short-term effect of monetary policy shocks on international capital flows is higher than that in the medium and long-term, but the impact on the RMB exchange rate show signs of hysteresis and diffusion, and price rules are more conducive to smoothing the impact of external shocks on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate. (3) The point-in-time impulse response shows that the impact of interest rate shocks on international capital flows and RMB exchange rate is weaker than that of money supply shocks, and the impact of interest rate shocks on international capital flows returns to steady-state equilibrium more quickly. Therefore, price rule is superior to quantitative rule in the effect of stabilizing international capital flow and RMB exchange rate. The choice of monetary policy rules of the Chinese central bank should gradually change from quantitative rule to price rule, which also serves the best choice for the Chinese central bank to implement monetary policy to regulate macro-economy in the post-financial crisis era.

Key words: monetary policy rules, international capital flow, RMB exchange rate, tvp-sv-var model

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