Abstract: Aiming at the fact that adverse weather affects agricultural production and makes supply chain members suffer uncontrollable risk during contract farming, a stochastic profit model for a two-stage agricultural supply chain consisting of a risk-averse farmer and a risk-neutral company was built. Under the CVaR criterion, a CVaR decision model was constructed for the risk-averse farmer. Then the influence of adverse weather on the optimal decisions was analyzed by comparing optimal decisions in the centralized system and decentralized system. It is found that adverse weather reduces the supply chain performance and that the risk aversion of the farmer aggravates the double marginalization. In order to solve these issues, an improved revenue sharing contract was designed based on weather index and farmer's risk aversion degree. The result shows that company can motivate both parties to share revenue and bear the risks by designing the contract according to the influence of adverse weather. Besides, the perfect win-win coordination for agricultural supply chain can be achieved after the implement of this contract, which makes up the efficiency loss in the decentralized system and enhances the steadiness of the supply chain. Finally, the result obtained in this paper can provide guidance for relevant studies and firms in practice.

Key words: agricultural supply chain, adverse weather, risk aversion, contract farming, CVaR criterion, revenue sharing