Abstract: Major infectious disease attributes are extracted in this paper by the approach of multi-case study to describe the major infectious disease structurally from the event type, the key attributes, the secondary attributes, the environment attributes and the hazard assessment attributes. On the basis of the structural description, properties of related events in the events chain are analyzed for the process of major infectious disease, the Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) is applied to model the diffusion of major infectious disease, and the corresponding Markov chain is established based on isomorphic relation between GSPN and Markov chain. Finally, the equilibrium state and fluctuation pattern of the system are studied for evaluating and improving the system with Markov chain and corresponding mathematics method, which provides decision-making support for monitoring and responding to the major infectious disease.

Key words: emergency, major infectious disease, generalized stochastic Petri nets, Markov chain