考虑风险态度和自信行为的应急响应等级决策方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1618

Abstract

Abstract:

The level of emergency response is an important basis for effective， orderly and effective emergency disposal.In the case of increasing complexity， uncertainty and harmfulness of emergency events， decision-maker usually cannot accurately determine the emergency response level in a short period of time， and it is necessary to organize experts in many fields to conduct consultations and judgements. For the decision-making scenarios where experts have different judgements on the response levels， the voting mechanisms， such as the principle of minority obeying majority， cannot be well applied because these decision-making methods based on the deterministic information is not suitable for complex uncertain decision-making in emergency environment. In this paper， both the complexity of experts' risk attitudes and expert self-confidence behavior are considered to resolve the conflicts in the judgement of the response levels， so as to provide support for decision maker to accurately determine the emergency response level. First， a method for generating evidence， that is influenced by experts' riskattitude， is proposed to transform the incomplete judgement information provided by experts into the form of evidence using evidence theory. Then， from the two different aspects of judgement reliability and expert weight， the measurement method of evidence reliability is proposed for the fusion of conflict evidence， and an optimizing decision method of processing different judgements on the response levels is further developed.Finally， the effectiveness and scientificity of the proposed method are verified by an example. The results show that the consideration of experts' risk attitude can improve the accuracy of judgment， and it is beneficial and necessary to consider self-confident behavior in decision making to improve decision quality. There is both theoretical and practical significance for improving the government'semergency management capabilities.

Key words: emergency decision-making, risk attitude, self-confident behavior, emergency response level, evidence theory

CLC Number:

C934

Lei Zhang,Xin Ye. Decision-Making Method of Emergency Response Level Considering Riskattitude and Self-confident Behavior[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(6): 120-128.

Figures/Tables 8

风险态度	风险系数 $θ$
较强风险规避(S-RA)	0.1
一般风险规避(G-RA)	0.3
风险中立(RN)	0.5
一般风险偏好(G-RP)	0.7
较强风险偏好(S-RP)	0.9

$E$	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	研判信度	风险态度
$e 1$	√		$s 4$	G-RP
$e 2$		√	$s 5$	RN
$e 3$	√		$s 5$	G-RA
$e 4$		√	$s 4$	G-RP
$e 5$	√		$s 5$	S-RA

专家	焦元及其BPA
$e 1$	$m 1 h 2 = 0.7140, m 1 h 1, h 2 = 0.2860$
$e 2$	$m 2 h 3 = 0.8333, m 2 h 2, h 3, h 4 = 0.1667$
$e 3$	$m 3 h 2 = 0.6823, m 3 h 2, h 3 = 0.3177$
$e 4$	$m 4 h 3 = 0.7140, m 4 h 2, h 3 = 0.2860$
$e 5$	$m 5 h 2 = 0.5586, m 5 h 2, h 3 = 0.4414$

专家	焦元及其BPA
$e 1$	$m ? 1 h 2 = 0.4380, m ? 1 h 1, h 2 = 0.1754, m ? 1 Ω = 0.3866$
$e 2$	$m ? 2 h 3 = 0.7667, m ? 2 h 2, h 3, h 4 = 0.1534, m ? 1 Ω = 0.0799$
$e 3$	$m ? 3 h 2 = 0.4613, m ? 3 h 2, h 3 = 0.2148, m ? 3 Ω = 0.3239$
$e 4$	$m ? 4 h 3 = 0.7140, m ? 4 h 2, h 3 = 0.2860$
$e 5$	$m ? 5 h 2 = 0.5530, m ? 5 h 2, h 3 = 0.4370, m ? 1 Ω = 0.0100$

决策方法	Ⅰ级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级	决策结果
$M$	0.0146	0.5680	0.4029	0.0146	Ⅱ级
$M *$	-	0.4141	0.5859	-	Ⅲ级

决策方法	$R 1$	$R 2$	$R 3$	$R 4$	$R 5$
$M$	0.5201	0.5338	0.5731	0.7656	1
$M *$	0.6134	0.9201	0.6761	1	0.9899

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	m₁			m₂			m₃			m₄			m₅
	k_ij	d_ij	c_ij	k_ij	d_ij	c_ij	k_ij	d_ij	c_ij	k_ij	d_ij	c_ij	k_ij	d_ij	c_ij
m₁	0	0	0	0.8333	0.7746	0.8045	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.7140	0.6753	0.6949	0	0.0024	0.0017
m₂	0.8333	0.7746	0.8045	0	0	0	0.5686	0.7540	0.6678	0	0.0072	0.0051	0.4655	0.7081	0.5992
m₃	0	0.0002	0.0002	0.5686	0.7540	0.6678	0	0	0	0.4872	0.6553	0.5774	0	0.0011	0.0008
m₄	0.7140	0.6753	0.6949	0	0.0072	0.0051	0.4872	0.6553	0.5774	0	0	0	0.3988	0.6109	0.5159
m₅	0	0.0024	0.0017	0.4655	0.7081	0.5992	0	0.0011	0.0008	0.3988	0.6109	0.5159	0	0	0

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Decision-Making Method of Emergency Response Level Considering Riskattitude and Self-confident Behavior

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