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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2008, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (4): 18-23.

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Dynamic VaR Risk Measures Based on EVT-BM-FIGARCH

XIAO Zhi1, FU Xiao-xiao1, ZHONG Bo2   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China;
    2. College of Mathematics and Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China
  • Received:2007-06-27 Revised:2008-06-10 Online:2008-08-31 Published:2008-08-31

Abstract: This article uses FIGARCH model to handle the heteroscedasticity and long memory behavior in return's volatility.At the same time,it transfers return series into standard residuals and uses EV T-BM method to capture the fat tails of standard residuals Thus it deals with return's fat-tails trait in this way.Then,the paper constructs a dynamic VaR risk measure based on EV T-BM-FIGARCH and applies it to daily returns of composite index of Shanghai stock market.The empirical analysis indicates that the risk measure can describe the index return's dynamic VaR risk more exactly and reasonably.

Key words: EV T-BM, FIGARCH, fat tails, long memory, VaR

CLC Number: