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28 November 2022, Volume 30 Issue 11 Previous Issue   
Articles
Supply Chain Resilience: Adapting to Complexity—Based on the Perspective of Complex System Thinking
SHENG Zhao-han, WANG Hai-yan, HU Zhi-hua
2022, 30 (11):  1-7.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.11.001
Abstract ( 411 )   PDF (1037KB) ( 495 )  
Building a resilient supply chain has risen from a concern at the enterprise level to a strategy at the industry, regional and national levels, and has become an important means to cope with the complex situation of current social and economic development. It is also an important means to improve the national security and competitiveness. On the basis of expounding that supply chain is a complex adaptive system of social multi center sharing and co-governance, it is pointed out that supply chain resilience is a sign of the ability of the behavior and function of the supply chain system to adapt to the complex changes of the environment as a whole. The complex integrity attribute of supply chain resilience requires us to form new research paradigms and methodologies through the paradigm shift of complex system thinking. The academic value of supply chain resilience theory is not mainly aimed at conventional problems, but depends on whether it is effective and efficient in dealing with supply chain instability, risk, emergency, functional degradation and other resilience crises. Supply chain resilience has a specific real world. To explain, analyze and reveal the complex phenomena and objective laws of supply chain resilience, it is pointed to pay full attention to the uniqueness and discourse context of the supply chain. No two realistic supply chain resilience mechanisms are identical. Supply chain resilience is a big and difficult problem in the field of supply chain research today, which has important academic frontiers, reality and challenges. It should be oriented and rooted in the rich practical soil of supply chain management in China, and consolidate the research foundation from the basic academic system, theoretical system and discourse system, rather than being too tied by the “disruption” and “no disruption” in the initial definition of supply chain resilience.
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Hua Luogeng System Engineering of Management Science and Industrial Big Data Analysis
LIU Xiang-guan, GAO Chuan-hou, LUO Shi-hua, WANG Yi-kang, WU Wu-lin
2022, 30 (11):  8-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1655
Abstract ( 69 )   PDF (2158KB) ( 63 )  
The achievements of the national key research project in the comprehensive utilization of vanadium and titanium resources in Panzhihua are briefly introduced under the personal guidance of Professor Hua Luogeng, a consultant of Pangang. Taking the typical big data analysis case in the “first prize of national scientific and technological progress” as an example, the guiding role of the management science theory created by Professor Hua Luogeng in big data analysis, intelligent optimization algorithm and process intelligent manufacturing of iron and steel industry is discussed. Through the introduction of specific cases and algorithms, it can help us more deeply understand the rich connotation of Hua Luogeng’s 36 word policy of management science. Especially in today’s digital economy era, how to apply Hua Luogeng’s scientific management theory to guide the research and development of intelligent manufacturing technology of industrial production line has universal guiding significance.
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Does the Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Market Have a Role in Stabilizing China’s Stock Market?
KOU Hong-hong, CHAI Jian
2022, 30 (11):  20-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0777
Abstract ( 87 )   PDF (1488KB) ( 45 )  
Since Shanghai crude oil futures (INE) was listed in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center in March 2018, it has become the third largest international crude oil futures after WTI and Brent crude oil futures. With the continuous growth of market capacity, INE not only accurately reflect the fundamental changes of the market, but also have more sensitive price discovery and risk management functions. How to determine whether China’s crude oil futures can help avoid the risk spillover of the global crude oil market to China’s stock market has become an urgent theoretical and practical problem. The effectiveness of Shanghai crude oil futures on the stability of China’s financial market from the perspective of dynamic conditional risk spillover is explored. More than 4000 daily data from 2002 to 2020 are selected, and the correlation effects of four international crude oil futures markets and two groups of stock composite indexes are compared. DCC-MGARCH model, BP multiple structure mutation test and CoVaR conditional risk spillover effect are used to comprehensively verify the role of INE market.Based on DCC-MGARCH model, the dynamic correlation between multiple international crude oil markets and stock markets is verified. Based on the BP multiple structure mutation model, the influence of major emergencies on the correlation between the two is analyzed.Based on the CoVaR conditional risk spillover formula, the risk spillover effects of international crude oil markets in China and the United States stock markets are calculated, and the risk spillover effects of multiple international crude oil markets on China and the United States stock markets are compared, so as to determine whether the INE market has the role of stabilizing China ' s stock market. It is found that the heterogeneity of international crude oil prices on the composite index of the two groups of stocks is mainly manifested in the two groups of stocks are crude oil importers and exporters; The time points of structural mutation in China (USA) are 5 (3), which coincides with the time points of sudden major economic and political events. International evidence shows that INE has the smallest CoVaR in Sino-US stock market, and crude oil futures market is lower than spot market. Some new evidence is revealed that China’s crude oil futures market is conducive to decoupling from international risk, and it is suggested that risk regulators improve systemic risk by smooth hedging risk spillover during major emergencies.
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Governance Structure, Ownership Background and Derivatives Innovation of Exchanges
LI Jia-lan, WAN Di-fang, CHEN Nan
2022, 30 (11):  31-41.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0750
Abstract ( 20 )   PDF (1150KB) ( 2 )  
Derivatives innovation is an important part of supply side reform in financial market.The innovative performance of an exchange can be influenced by its governance structure. The data of 85 exchanges across 37 countries over the period 2006-2016 is taken as samples to study the influence of governance structure and ownership background on derivatives innovation for the first time, as well as the moderating effect of legal environment. The panel Poisson regression model is adopted, and the number of newly launched futures/options contracts is employed as the measurement of innovative output of an exchange in that year.
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The Measure of Volatility Spillover Effect of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Based on Rolling Window VAR
ZHANG Xiao-wan, YI Rong-hua, YU Ying, WANG Ying
2022, 30 (11):  42-51.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1409
Abstract ( 22 )   PDF (1992KB) ( 9 )  
The interconnection between the stock markets is a “double-edged sword”, which not only strengthens linkage but also expands risk exposure. As a major measure of China’s stock market opening to the outside world, the effect of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in the past six years is a topic of concern to the industry. Whether the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has improved the competitiveness of the mainland stock market, and whether it has increased the volatility spillover effect between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, these are the themes of this paper. In the context of the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, in order to explore the impact and changes of the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets, the volatility spillover index is measured to observe the effect of the stock market. Furthermore, the stock market volatility spillover index is measured under time-varying conditions, and the volatility spillover effect and the change of risk transmission direction before and after the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect are analyzed. At the same time, in order to analyze the volatility spillover effect with the international market, the New York stock market is added as a research sample to examine the linkage between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets and the international stock market. The rolling window VAR model is adopted, the constant coefficient VAR model within the window is estimated and the corresponding volatility spillover index is calculated by fixing the sample window width, and then the window period by period is moved to estimate the time-varying volatility spillover index. The data include Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index and S&P 500 Index. The time span is 1,000 trading days before and after the opening day of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. It is found that the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has increased the volatility spillover effect of the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets, and has relatively reduced the volatility spillover effect of the U.S. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has strengthened the linkage between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets while weakening its relationship with New York. The transmission direction of the volatility spillover effect between Shanghai and Hong Kong is changed, from a single Hong Kong→Shanghai spillover to a two-way Shanghai←→Hong Kong spillover dominated by the Shanghai stock market. At the same time, the impact on the New York stock market is also increased and the competitiveness of Shanghai stock market is enhanced. This result is consistent with the economic foundation hypothesis and the synergy market synergy hypothesis. The research in this paper quantitatively measures the degree and direction of the volatility spillover effect between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets of interconnection, provides an evaluation of the effect of China’s Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect policy, and further provides a reference for decision-making for the establishment of the International Board.
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Operation and Coordination for Closed-loop Supply Chain Considering Corporate Social Responsibility Behavior Consciousness
YAO Feng-min, YAN Ying-luo, TENG Chun-xian
2022, 30 (11):  52-63.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1734
Abstract ( 41 )   PDF (1514KB) ( 16 )  
The recycling and remanufacturing of waste products can not only reduce environmental pollution and save resources, but also bring additional economic benefits to enterprises. Therefore, the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management has become an important development strategy for many large enterprises. At the same time, in addition to pursuing profits, more and more enterprises begin to pay attention to corporate social responsibility (CSR). However, the existing researches to analyze the impact of CSR on supply chain operation either separately from the macro-strategic level or from the micro-investment perspective, and few studies consider the two different forms of CSR behaviors at the same time. Secondly, the existing studies generally ignore the fact that the motivation of members to fulfill CSR may vary due to their different position in the CLSC. Therefore, it has great theoretical and practical significance to study the operation and coordination problem of CLSC considering CSR behaviors.
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Research on Cooperative Promotions of Internet Recycling Platform in Closed-loop Supply Chain
JIAN Hui-yun, HUANG Qiu-lan, XU Min-li
2022, 30 (11):  64-73.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0841
Abstract ( 24 )   PDF (2696KB) ( 13 )  
The Internet recycling mode is still in infancy and developing stage in China. The public has low awareness of the Internet recycling platform and seldom uses the platform when disposing of wastes. In order to improve the recovery rate of the Internet recycling platform, game theory is used to analyze the cooperation of Internet recycling platform in closed loop supply chain, which is also based on the cooperation extension form of online travel agencies and hotels. In this article, supply chain system consists of a manufacturer, an online retailer, and a third-party recycler is assumed. The manufacturer uses raw materials to produce new products, and uses the old products recycled by the third-party recycler to produce remanufactured products. The online retailer is responsible for selling products, meanwhile, it takes full advantage of its own popularity to promote the third-party recycler’s Internet recycling platform to the consumers. The third-party recycler promotes the Internet recycling platform and uses it to recycle old products. A mathematical model is proposed to investigate the optimal cooperative promotion mode for a manufacturer.
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Operating Decision under Competing Supply Chains with Different Cross Sales Model
LIU Xiao-jing, FU Hong, DU Wen-yi
2022, 30 (11):  74-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0754
Abstract ( 29 )   PDF (1825KB) ( 12 )  
In a competing supply chain model consisting of two manufacturers and two retailers, each manufacturer can choose one or two downstream retailers distribution products. An exclusive sales, single cross and double cross sales supply chain competition model is set up, and the effects of different competition intensities on the ordering strategy, wholesale price and performance in three models are analyzed. The results show that when the vertical competition intensity is constant, the system profit of the supply chain under exclusive sales decreases with the increase of the horizontal competition intensity, and the system profit of the supply chain under single cross sales increases with the increase of the horizontal competition intensity. The change of system profit of supply chain under double cross selling is not only related to horizontal competition, but also vertical competition.
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The Prisoner’s Dilemma of Dual-channel Supply Chain under the Perspective of Income Stream Risk
LIU Xin-min, LIN Kang-kang, WANG Lei
2022, 30 (11):  84-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0063
Abstract ( 26 )   PDF (1840KB) ( 18 )  
With the rapid development of e-commerce technology and the change of consumers’ shopping concepts, more and more manufacturers break through the original single traditional sales channel and gain greater market competitiveness by opening up electronic direct sales channels. However, the existence of dual channels has intensified the competition between manufacturers and retailers, leading to the coexistence of horizontal and vertical competition in the supply chain. Although existing studies have shown that the centralized decision-making between manufacturers and retailers is the optimal equilibrium solution. For self-interested motives, both will choose to cut prices separately to increase market share, i.e., to take non-cooperation as the dominant strategy, which leads to non-cooperative decentralized decision-making as the Nash equilibrium solution in the prisoner’s dilemma of the supply chain. Therefore, it is necessary to study the influence mechanism of different strategic combinations of supply chain participants on their utility level and production decision-making, so as to provide reference for coordinated supply chain management.
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Robust Pricing Issues in a Two-layer Supply Chain under an Uncertain Demand
HOU Fu-jun, SUN Zhong-yuan
2022, 30 (11):  95-104.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0476
Abstract ( 25 )   PDF (890KB) ( 9 )  
In practice, the potential demand and the price-sensitivity coefficient sometimes are unknown to decision-makers. In this scenario, deterministic optimal strategies no longer pertain. In order to deal with this type of issue, robust pricing issues of a manufacturer and a retailer in a two-echelon supply chain in the presence of an uncertain potential demand and an uncertain price-sensitivity coefficient are investigated. The potential demand and the price-sensitivity coefficient are expressed as interval parameters, and both the decision-makers are assumed to be risk averse. Firstly, the complete-information case is discussed so as to offer comparable results for the following cases. Secondly, the asymmetric-information situation is analyzed in which the retailer possesses complete information while the manufacturer only knows partial information about the market demand. A Stackelberg robust game model is constructed for this case and the unique equilibrium solution is acquired. It is shown that the retailer gains advantages by the asymmetric information. Thirdly, the incomplete-information situation is analyzed in which both the manufacturer and the retailer only know the intervals of the uncertain parameters. Similarly, a Stackelberg robust game model is built and the solution is obtained. By comparing the acquired results, the condition which guarantee the manufacturer is shown and the retailer gain more profits in the incomplete-information case than the one in the complete-information case. Under this condition, there is no need both for the manufacturer and the retailer to spend costs to obtain accurate information. Further, it is demonstrated that the manufacturer gains more profit in the incomplete-information situation than in the asymmetric-information situation, while the retailer is just the opposite. The obtained results give practical solutions for the manufacturer and the retailer, when at least one is not aware of exact parameters. Actually, robust pricing methods proposed in this paper are also available in other pricing scenarios when decision-makers are risk averse.
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Altruistic Decision-making of Closed-loop Supply Chain under Government Incentive Mechanism
WANG Yu-yan, SU Mei, WAMG Xiao-di
2022, 30 (11):  105-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1538
Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (2265KB) ( 6 )  
With the environmental harm caused by Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) becoming more and more serious, recycling activities have become important ways to promote the environment and economy. However, fewer enterprises spontaneously participate in the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) due to the limitations of technology and funds, which leads to the implementation of incentive mechanism by the government to encourage enterprises to recycle. Then, manufacturers consider not only their profits but also the profits of retailers and recyclers to maintain the stable operation of CLSC. Thus, considering the impact of government incentive mechanism and the altruistic concerns, three decision-making models of the closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) are constructed, namely, decentralized decision-making models with and without manufacturers' altruistic concerns and centralized decision-making model. The optimal decision on recycling and the optimal decision on government incentive mechanism are given. Then, the influences of government incentive mechanism and manufacturer’s altruistic concerns on these decisions are discussed. Moreover, the optimal reward decision of the government under two kinds of decentralized decision is solved and analyzed. On this basis, the ‘quantity discount joint fixed fee-cost sharing’ contract is designed to achieve system coordination. Finally, numerical analysis is employed to verify conclusions.
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Pricing Strategy of Fashion Products with Strategic Consumer Regret
ZHOU Jian-heng, LI Qing-qing, XU Xiao-lei
2022, 30 (11):  117-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0694
Abstract ( 31 )   PDF (2482KB) ( 25 )  
Based on relevant research and practices on fashion strategy consumption behavior, two kinds of consumer psychological motivations are summarized: one is the “high price regret” derived from missing the low price due to impulse buying; the other is the “stockout regret” derived from waiting for the low price but encountering out of stock. On this basis, the effects of two regret psychologies on the Markdown (MD) pricing strategy and the Markup (MU) pricing strategy are analyzed in a two-period sales. First, two regret psychologies are taken into account in consumer's utility function and then, with the stochastic demand with consumer behavior, how the firm sets the pricing decision and ration level is discussed by model analysis in two-period selling of Markdown (Markup) pricing strategy. By comparing the firm's profits between both pricing modes, the interactive influence of two regret psychologies on the sales stage segmentation is investigated in depth. Our results suggest that the propensity to delay buying will be weaken for consumers with regrets and the firm can induce customers to buy at high prices by creating appropriate rationing risks. Under the two pricing modes, if certain condition is satisfied, facing consumers with regret psychologies, the firm can realize a higher optimal profit than that under the unified pricing, and the Markup pricing strategy is more beneficial than the Markdown pricing strategy.
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Strategy Selection of Government Subsidy Exit in Global Bidirectional Supply Chain
SUN Cai-hong, LI Xiao-yi, YU Hui
2022, 30 (11):  127-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0065
Abstract ( 26 )   PDF (2189KB) ( 7 )  
The “Belt and Road” strategy guides the explosive growth of the number of China-Europe trains, but behind the goal of scale and balance is the government subsidy strategy.The various drawbacks caused by subsidies continue to appear.It has gradually become a consensus in the industry reduces subsidies. The operational characteristics of cross-border two-way supply between China and Europe are characterized, and the exit path selection of government subsidies is studied.
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Patent Licensing, Products Distribution and Channel Choice
JIN Liang
2022, 30 (11):  137-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1327
Abstract ( 26 )   PDF (2336KB) ( 10 )  
Since reform and opening up, the consciousness of intellectual property protection permeates gradually every field of our lives with the constant deepening of people's intellectual property protection awareness. Good quality of patent licensing and authorization agreements is the foundation for the protection of intellectual property rights, and patent authorization agreement is the key to transform intellectual property into realistic productivity.At the same time, the enterprise needs to carry on the product research and development design, and reduces the product to sell in the market after obtaining the patent authorization. However, the distribution strategy of patent-using enterprise will affect the consumer demand and behavior of the supply chain operation process. As a result, the licensing of patent technology and the competition and cooperation among enterprises become complicated, which easily leads to the misalignment of decision-making incentives and performance losses of enterprises. In this context, the following questions will be studied: how technical supplier should choose the form of patent licensing contract and contract parameters, how technical supplier choose reasonable distribution channels, and what impact different channel strategies will have on patent technology licensing and other issues.
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Method of Screening Evaluation Indicators Based on Anti-image Correlation Matrix
CHEN Hong-hai
2022, 30 (11):  149-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0969
Abstract ( 26 )   PDF (1288KB) ( 10 )  
Evaluation is the basis of scientific decision-making and the most common cognitive activity of human beings. Evaluation index system is the basis of evaluation activities, so it is very important to select evaluation indicators scientifically. A group of evaluation indicators constitute an interactive and interactive system, and there are complicated information overlapping among them. Moreover, the overlapping information will be repeatedly emphasized in the comprehensive evaluation, which will distort the evaluation results. Therefore, it is necessary to eliminate some indicators with high information overlap to reduce the information overlap level of indicator set. The existing research mainly solves this problem by reducing the correlation between one indicator and some (mainly another) indicators. It is very easy to eliminate more indicators, but the information overlap of indicator set decreases slowly, which leads to excessive loss of evaluation information. In order to solve the above problems, Measure of Sampling Adequacy (MSA) is first introduced to represent the information overlapping level between an evaluation indicator and all other indicators, and KMO test statistics is introduced to represent the overall information overlapping level of a group of evaluation indicators. Secondly, the indicators with the largest MSA value in the indicator set are removed in turn until the KMO value of the remaining indicators is not high, which can quickly reduce the overall information overlap of the evaluation indicator set. After that, one with higher MSA value is eliminated in any two indicators with high partial correlation level to avoid the high information overlap between individual indicators. Finally, taking a small enterprise loan customer credit evaluation index screening of a commercial bank in China as an example, compared with the most widely used screening methods of information overlap indicators, it is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The results show that this method has higher efficiency of reducing information overlap of indicator set and less loss of evaluation information; it can neither delete the evaluation indicators with low information overlap level nor retain the evaluation indicators with high information overlap level. The study of the evaluation indicator selection methods is expanded, and a reference and guidance for solving the problem of reducing the high correlation among indicators is provided.
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Optimization of a Type of Local Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem Based on the Strong Duality Theory of Integer Programming
SU Zhi-xiong, WEI Han-ying, ZHANG Jing-wen, QI Jian-xun
2022, 30 (11):  159-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0272
Abstract ( 32 )   PDF (1406KB) ( 9 )  
Resource constraints are often broadly impacting, unavoidable impediments in project execution procedures. A number of recent, topical project management issues, such as the resource-constrainedproject scheduling problem (RCPSP), have their roots in the resource constraint problem. It is NP-hard in the strong sense. Current research on the RCPSP mainly focuses on the global problemin which all activities are constrained by resource constraints during the whole project process. Considering practical projects requiring numerous types of resources, the “resource constrained” designation may be for limited types of resources or during local project processes. The local “resource-constrained” designation may constrain activities in a part of the projectsuch that only a portion of activities need arrangement under resource restriction.The above representation denotes the local RCPSP.In this paper, a typical sub-problem of the local RCPSP is studied, which is generated by adding some special assumptions to the general local RCPSP.
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Crowdfunding Mechanism of Rural Environmental Governance Based on Evolutionary Game Theory
HE Qi-long, LUO Xing, CHEN Li-peng, GU Cui-ling
2022, 30 (11):  170-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2033
Abstract ( 29 )   PDF (2763KB) ( 12 )  
Rural environmental governance is one of the important tasks of Rural Revitalization Strategy. The government alone is unable to meet the environmental governance needs of more than 700,000 administrative villages in China. It has become a new mechanism to play the role of the main body of farmers,this will fundamentally relieve the pressure on government finances. In this paper, the crowdfunding is introduced into the environmental governance. The evolutionary game models of two strategies for multiple players are constructed under two scenarios of fair contribution and altruistic preference. Then the effects of risk probability, environment-friendly preference, group utility, initial wealth, financing target and crowdfunding shares on crowdfunding success are analyzed, and the internal mechanism of the emergence of cooperative environmental governance behavior of farmers is revealed.
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Optimal Control of Crowdsourcing Logistics Service Quality Considering Reward-penalty Mechanism and Cost Sharing
MENG Xiu-li, YANG Jing, WU Yi-fan
2022, 30 (11):  182-195.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0746
Abstract ( 15 )   PDF (2941KB) ( 3 )  
With the rapid development of sharing economy, crowdsouring logistics is emerging. However, the crowdsourcing logistics service quality is not high, which reduces the crowdsourcing logistics demand. It is a long-term process for crowdsourcing logistics service quality to be controlled by the service platform and the receriver, and the quality change is affected by the quality control level of both parties. Therefore, how to control crowdsourcing logistics service quality for service platform and receiver is studied from the dynamic perspective.
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Study on the Risk Early Warning Interval Model Based on Improved Adaptive Optimal Partition Method——Large-scale Public Health Emergency
OUYANG Yan-min, WANG Chang-feng, LIU Liu, YUAN Hong-min
2022, 30 (11):  196-206.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1327
Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (1583KB) ( 9 )  
Large-scale public health emergency, such as COVID-19, has severely endangered the safety of people around the world. Relevant emergency management system needs to be improved, among which risk early warning is the key issue. How to quantitatively estimate the risk early warning thresholds and partition risk early warning intervals is studied. In this paper, improved adaptive optimal partition model based on entropy method is introduced to fix this problem. It is found that the trend of public health emergency changes dynamically, while traditional partition model can not identify the changes of data characteristics in different epidemic periods. The model in this paper uses eight kinds of fitting functions to reduce the sum of squares of deviations when partitioning, so as to more accurately identify the development trends of epidemic in different periods. In addition, considering the diversity of epidemic indicators, five kinds of epidemic indicators are considered and the entropy method is used to assign the weight of each indicator, which can better avoid possible deviations caused by manual selection. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, the data of daily COVID-19 cases worldwide from January 20, 2020 to March 31, 2020, are used and the simulation results of risk early warning intervals are given. It is found that our partition results obtained by improved adaptive optimal partition model are basically consistent with the WHO statements about the epidemic development stages. What’s more, comparing with traditional partition model, the results in this paper are more accurate and the risk early warning thresholds are more advanced. Therefore, the study has guiding value for enhancing the accuracy of risk early warning of public health emergencies, and provides a theoretical reference for the construction of emergency management system.
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Optimal Design of Performance-based Contracts for Product Repair Service in the Presence of Component Expiry
WAN Guang-yu, LI Dong
2022, 30 (11):  207-215.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0544
Abstract ( 19 )   PDF (1984KB) ( 3 )  
Recently, Performance-based Contracts (PBC) have become a prevalent business model in the after-sales service area. Traditionally, the supplier receives payment based on providing failure repair activities and selling parts. However, under PBC the supplier is compensated based on realized product availability. Hence, the supplier needs to reconsider its operational decision to increase product uptime and avoid under-performance penalty. Spare parts are key to product failure repair and its availability affects repair rate and final product performance. When components face obsolescence risk, resourcing spare parts may become unfeasible and thus inventory management for obsolete parts is of highly importance. In this paper, a game-theoretic model is built to capture a setting when product quantity and PBC terms are contracted between a supplier and a customer. Two different penalty schemes in PBC are considered- penalty based on spare parts stockout (PBC-B) vs. penalty based on lost revenue caused by system downtime (PBC-L). It can be found that that these two types of PBC lead to divergent equilibrium outcomes. The analytical results and numerical experiments demonstrate that PBC-L provides a stronger incentive for the supplier to improve product availability. However, in contrast to PBC-B, PBC-L may lead to overinvestment in spare parts and a lower product quantity, which can result in lower profits for the supply chain partners. Our model and results shed lights on how to design and implement PBC contracts for aftersales service and provide insights for customers on how to design incentive punishment mechanism to motivate suppliers.
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A Multiple-attribute Decision-making Method Based on the Dual Hesitant Fuzzy Geometric Heronian Means Operator and Its Application
QU Guo-hua, WANG Bin-yu, QU Wei-hua, XU Ze-shui, ZHANG Qiang
2022, 30 (11):  216-228.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0938
Abstract ( 24 )   PDF (2848KB) ( 5 )  
Motivated by the problem that aggregates the membership, nonmembership and association, the dual hesitant fuzzy information is combined with the geometric Heronian means operator in this paper, and the dual hesitant fuzzy geometric Heronian means (DHFGHM) operator and dual hesitant fuzzy geometric weighted Heronian means (DHFGWHM) operator are defined. Meanwhile, the properties of these new operators are investigated, including Idempotency, Commutativity, Monotonicity and Boundedness. Then, for the multi-attribute decision-making problem with the dual hesitant fuzzy attributes, the model based on the dual hesitant fuzzy geometric weighted Heronian means (DHFGWHM) operator is established. Furthermore, based on this model, a multi-attribute decision-making method with the DHFGWHM operator is proposed. Finally, an example is shown to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the given method.
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A Neutral Two-stage Cross-efficiency Evaluation Approach
WANG Mei-qiang, HUANG Yang
2022, 30 (11):  229-238.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1697
Abstract ( 15 )   PDF (885KB) ( 3 )  
In data envelopment analysis, the existing two-stage cross-efficiency evaluation approach not only has not neutrally decomposed sub-stage efficiency, but also can only be applied to the basic two-stage network structure. A neutral cross-efficiency evaluation approach is present for both basic two-stage network structure and two-stage network structure with shared inputs. In this approach, the overall efficiency of self-evaluation is equal to the weighted sum of the sub-stage efficiency; on the premise of maximizing the overall efficiency of self-evaluation, an optimal set of weights is determined for each decision making unit from the perspective of maximizing the efficiency of each sub-stage; then the final efficiency scores of the whole and sub-stages of the decision making unit are calculated by mutual evaluation. Finally, according to the data in literature [18] and [29], 24 insurance companies decomposed into basic two-stage network structure and 27 banks decomposed into two-stage network structure with shared inputs are taken as examples. By comparing and analyzing the results of the existing approaches, it is verified that the proposed approach is applicable to a variety of complex network structures, and the approach is practical, reasonable and effective. The contribution of this paper is that the improved efficiency evaluation approach makes up for the limitations of the existing two-stage cross-efficiency evaluation approach and can be applied to many practical problems.
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Value-added Service Pricing Model Based on Industrial Internet Platform
PAN Xiao-jun
2022, 30 (11):  239-249.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2160
Abstract ( 26 )   PDF (1390KB) ( 12 )  
Value-added services of industrial internet platforms can improve manufacturers’ mass customization and product quality, thus increasing demand, on the one hand, and reduce production and manufacturing costs by improving efficiency, on the other hand. In this paper, a three-level supply chain game model consisting of an industrial Internet platform, a manufacturer and a retailer is constructed, and the optimal decision is solved based on usage-based and subscription-based charging models. The impact of value-added service sensitivity coefficients and cost savings coefficients on supply chain members’ decisions and profits under different pricing models is analyzed, and the optimal decisions under the two pricing models are compared. It is found that (1) the quality of value-added services, platform, manufacturer and retailer profits increase with the increase of consumer value-added service sensitivity coefficient cost savings coefficient under both usage-based and subscription-based models. When the value-added service sensitivity coefficient is greater than a certain threshold, both the wholesale and retail prices of products increase with the increase of the value-added service sensitivity coefficient. When the cost savings factor is less than a certain threshold, both the wholesale and retail prices increase with the increase of the cost savings factor.
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Study on Cross-efficiency Ranking Based on Evidential Reasoning and Prospect Theory
WANG Xu, WANG Ying-ming, WANG Liang, LAN Yi-xin, ZHANG Xing-xian
2022, 30 (11):  250-259.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0474
Abstract ( 25 )   PDF (911KB) ( 8 )  
There has a lot of researches on cross-efficiency based on data envelopment analysis (DEA), and different DEA cross-efficiency models usually lead to different decision making units (DMUs) rankings and conclusions. To avoid the biased performance evaluation caused by biased DEA cross-efficiency model and make a comprehensive assessment on DMUs, an alternative combined with prospect theory and evidential reasoning approach is proposed to integrate the cross-efficiencies of DMUs, which are obtained from several DEA cross-efficiency models, and the cross-efficiencies are converted into the belief degree to support the evaluated DMU being efficient. The weights of integrated efficiencies are obtained by prospect theory, which considers the expected gains and loss of decision makers. The rankings and comparisons of DMUs are determined by the final belief degrees. The higher the belief degree is, the better the DMU ranks. An assessment of 7 departments in a university is made with the proposed approach. It is found that the proposed approach integrates the evaluations of DMUs under aggressive, benevolent and neutral cross-efficiency models well, and leads a comprehensive conclusion.
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Interactive Large-scale Group Evaluation Method Based on Complex Network and Linguistic Information
WANG Wei-ming, XU Hai-yan, ZHU Jian-jun
2022, 30 (11):  260-271.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2020
Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (2374KB) ( 15 )  
Aiming at the problem that most of interactive group evaluation methods based on linguistic information are only suitable for small-and medium-scale group, a novel interactive large-scale group evaluation method based on linguistic information and complex network is proposed. First, the evaluators are regarded as nodes and a complex network is constructed by calculating the distance between nodes. Second, the node closeness degree and subgroup closeness degree are designed to measure the weights of nodes and subgroups. Then, two indicators of group’s satisfaction degree and group’s stability degree are defined to determine the interactive termination and obtain the stage weights. Finally, node density operator and node weighted operator are given to aggregate static group evaluation information and dynamic evaluation results. One exact example is applied to illustrate the availability and rationality of the proposed method. The research shows that this method can aggregate interactive large-scale group evaluation information more comprehensively and accurately, and the satisfaction degree of the results is more better.
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Optimization of Fresh Goods Multi-Center Vehicle Routing Problem Based on Resource Sharing and Temperature Control
WANG Yong, ZHANG Jie, LIU Yong, XU Mao-zeng
2022, 30 (11):  272-285.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.2129
Abstract ( 31 )   PDF (3187KB) ( 22 )  
Due to the characteristics of perishability, timeliness and temperature control heterogeneity of fresh goods, as well as customers’ diversified demands for fresh goods, scattered geographical locations, and high time window requirements, the logistics distribution requirements of fresh goods are significantly higher than those of other commodities. However, due to the limited distribution resources of fresh goods, it is impossible to realize the whole process of low-temperature transportation and distribution of fresh goods, and the non-low-temperature transportation and distribution processes will lead to serious value loss of fresh goods over time, which will limit the development of fresh goods logistics industry. The resource sharing and cooperation among fresh goods logistics facilities can realize the rational allocation and time-sharing use of resources among multiple fresh goods logistics distribution facilities, thus improving the efficiency of resource utilization. To overcome the shortcomings of the fresh goods multi-center joint distribution optimization study in the effective combination of resource sharing and temperature control, and then the fresh goods multi-center vehicle routing optimization problem with integrated resource sharing and temperature control is proposed. A bi-objective optimization model is constructed, including the minimum logistics distribution cost and the minimum number of vehicles in fresh goods distribution with the resource sharing and temperature control constraints. A TS-NSGA-II hybrid algorithm based on K-means multi-dimensional clustering is devised to address the model, and an effective selective endowing mechanism between the tabu search (TS) and the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is proposed to enhance the search and optimization ability of the solution space. Through the comparison and analysis with MOGEA and MOPSO algorithms, the effectiveness of the proposed model and TS-NSGA-II algorithm is further verified. Finally, through a case study, five resource sharing modes are compared and discussed, includingnon-sharing and unreasonable temperature control, internal sharing and unreasonable temperature control, global sharing and unreasonable temperature control, internal sharing and reasonable temperature control, and global sharing and reasonable temperature control. The research results show that the global sharing and reasonable temperature control mode can effectively reduce the value loss of fresh goods, temperature control cost, and the number of fresh vehicles, and then reduce the total operating cost of fresh logistics distribution network.This paper will enrich the multi-center distribution network optimization model of fresh goods, and then provide a new theoretical basis and decision support for the selection of resource sharing modes and the design of temperature control ranges for fresh goods logistics distribution enterprises.
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A Study on the Model of Multi-individual Learning from Experience: From the Perspective of Information Asymmetry and Analytic Method Asymmetry
CHEN Guo-quan, ZHOU Qi-wei, LIN Yan-ling, LIU Wei, WANG Jing-yi, XU Fen
2022, 30 (11):  286-298.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1329
Abstract ( 20 )   PDF (2808KB) ( 5 )  
At present, the increasingly complex and dynamic situation and environment put forward higher requirements for multi-individual learning from past events, accumulating coping experience, and quickly realizing the iteration of solutions. However, in the process of multi-individual learning from experience, different individuals often do not have enough knowledge of each other’s information and analytic methods, resulting in disagreement, delayed discussion, and failing to reach conclusions in time. The phenomena of not knowing what information other individuals have and/or what analytical methods other individuals will use as“asymmetry” is summarized in this paper. Using theory building method, focusing on the process of multi-individual learning from experience, taking “information” and “analytic method” as two dimensions, a two-dimensional matrix based on the asymmetry of information and the asymmetry of analytic method is established, and then four conditions are put forward. These four conditions include: information asymmetry and analytic method asymmetry, information asymmetry and analytic method symmetry, information symmetry and analytic method asymmetry, and information symmetry and analytic method symmetry. It is pointed out that the asymmetry of information and/or analytic methods will reduce learning efficiency, and the process mechanism model of multi-individual learning from experience based on asymmetric perspective. Then, the practical methods are put forward to reduce asymmetry from the perspective of “willingness” and “capability”, and the practical method base for reducing asymmetry in multi-individual learning from experience is constructed. Approaches are explored to solve the problems caused by the asymmetry of information and/or analytic method in multi-individual learning from experience, and theoretical framework and practical guidance for improving learning efficiency are provided.
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Evaluation of Campus Emergency Management Capability Based on Improved Matter-Element Extension Model
LIU Yang, LIU Xiao-yun, LI Yu-fei
2022, 30 (11):  299-308.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0290
Abstract ( 24 )   PDF (1844KB) ( 5 )  
In order to improve the capability of campus emergency management evaluation, the asymmetric approach degree criterion is introduced and the improvement model of university emergency management ability is established based on matter-element extension theory. At the same time, the evaluation index system is established based on the whole life cycle process and analytic hierarchy process, and the weight of each evaluation index is calculated, and the weight and sensitivity factors are discussed and analyzed. The survey results of campus security emergency management ability of five universities are gotten through statistics. The evaluation model has been applied in 5 universities. And the results show that the criterion of asymmetric approach degree is more effective than the principle of maximum degree of membership, and the results are basically consistent with the actual results. It further proves the reliability and validity of the improved matter-element extension model, which provides a new approach for the evaluation of campus emergency management capability.
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Pareto Equilibrium of New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Recycling Based on Extended Producer Responsibility
XIE Jun-yang, LE Wei, GUO Ben-hai
2022, 30 (11):  309-320.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0956
Abstract ( 19 )   PDF (2887KB) ( 5 )  
The growth of demand for power batteries will be inevitably driven by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle, and the derivative problem of battery recycling is becoming more and more prominent. However, multiple stakeholders are involved in the recycling process of power battery, and there are many problemssuch as unclear definition of recycling responsibilities, low enthusiasm of enterprises and high recycling costs. Therefore, the improvement of market system from the source prevention to the end-treatment will be a long-term process, requiring the joint efforts of multiple entities. Considering the concept of extended producer responsibility and the subject responsibility of recycling taking by the vehicle enterprise, a tripartite game model, which is based on the interests of vehicle enterprises, battery manufacturers and third-party dismantling corporations, is built in this paper. The benefit relationship of each party during green production and recycling of the waste battery is analyzed in this model. Matlab software is used to simulate the process of three-party interaction.
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A New Balance Strategy of Urban Subway Operation Under the COVID-19 Epidemic
CUI Wei, HAO Li-ning, MU Ren, SUN Hui-jun
2022, 30 (11):  321-332.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2596
Abstract ( 17 )   PDF (2675KB) ( 4 )  
Subway plays an important role in urban transportation. However, owing to the outbreak of COVID-19, the operation of the subway has emerged multiple constraints, including disinfect, restrictions on passenger flow and travel independently. Staggered shifts have become an inevitable choice in subway operation in many cities. How to meet the basic travel needs of residents, provide transportation support for the smooth resumption of work and school, as well as reduce the risk of infection of passengers and the cost of tracking close contacts effectively has become the new goal of urban subway operation. Based on the analysis of the current subway operation status in Beijing and the travel patterns of residents, it is found that under the COVID-19 epidemic, there are three difficulties during the process of the subway operation: the contradiction between travel demand and subway carrying capacity, the resumption and epidemic prevention, the problem of too many passengers’ cross trips. In response to the question, a complex assignment model is built for resumption of work in multiple time periods and weekends. This assignment model not only achieves the goal of balancing the passenger flow during the rush hour, reducing the risk of epidemic transmission and the difficulty of tracing close contacts, but also can accomplish the complex assignment target of enterprises using subway to resume work and production by modifying the model objective function and constraints. The model proposed in this paper has strong application value in the complex periodic balance problem.
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Research on Channel Strategy for Intellectual Property Management Platform Considering Blockchain-based Evidence Credibility
ZHANG Hai-qiang, DU Rong, AI Shi-zhong, PEI Qing-qi, MA Li-chuan
2022, 30 (11):  333-342.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0835
Abstract ( 20 )   PDF (1994KB) ( 5 )  
Blockchain technology can create a trustworthy environment, and as a result, its application to intellectual property (IP) management has received a lot of attention from the industry. The ability of IP management platforms to accurately provide evidence of IP rights confirmation (evidence credibility) is a very important competitive metric, but the question of the optimal strategies for platforms to compete when they can choose from multiple channels of confirmation has not been investigated. To address this issue, a three-stage game model is developed to analyze the optimal competition strategies of two oligopolistic IP management platforms through multiple channels, i.e., traditional channels, blockchain channels, and both channels open at the same time; and the model is extended to investigate the optimal strategies of emerging platforms when competing with existing platforms. The analytical solution and numerical simulation results lead to the following conclusions: (1) When the duopoly platforms compete, the platforms should choose their competition strategies according to the proportion of users with high timeliness requirements; when the proportion is low, both platforms provide only traditional channels; when the proportion is moderate, both platforms offer both traditional channels and blockchain channels; and when the proportion is high, one platform provides only traditional channels and the other platform provides both channels. (2) When the proportion of users with high timeliness requirements is low, the existing platforms should open the blockchain channel service simultaneously; when the proportion is high, the existing platforms should open only the traditional channel. This study provides guidance to the operational management of existing IP platforms, and also adds knowledge to the understanding of the impact of blockchain on specific industries.
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The Pricing and Incentive Contract Design with the Product Performance Improvement of “Hardware/software” Platform
ZHONG Li, AI Xing-zheng, DING Xue-feng
2022, 30 (11):  343-351.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1169
Abstract ( 24 )   PDF (1345KB) ( 7 )  
With the blossom of platform mode, a kind of “hardware/software” platform emerged. On the one hand, it sells its products to consumers, on the other hand, it provides the channel for third-party developers to sell complementary service and content to consumers. Such as smart phones, video game machines, e-readers, smart cars, etc. Take the smartphone as an example, after purchasing the smartphone, consumers enhance their experience value through downloading applications from the smartphone platform and installing them. Therefore, the “hardware/software” platform can profit by selling its own products and providing platform service. Furthermore, in order to meet the needs of consumers for higher performance of platform products and obtain the competitive advantage, the platform also continuously innovates the product. Based on the above background, how should the platform price its product and royalty fee, and how should third-party developers price its service or content? And how the platform and third-party developers cooperate to stimulate innovation in the platform product’s performance, improve system efficiency and optimize their own profits.
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Research on Decision-Making of Medical Service System Considering Information Platform Optimization
HU Dong-bin, HUANG Sen-long
2022, 30 (11):  352-360.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2180
Abstract ( 25 )   PDF (1930KB) ( 8 )  
The realization of appointment registration and intelligent triage on Wechat, Alipay and other mobile apps is essentially the optimization of information platform. The optimization of information platform may cause unreasonable increase of medical expenses. By analyzing the influence of information platform optimization input on patients’ choice, a medical service system considering information platform optimization is constructed. Different from previous studies, the expected waiting time in the system is more accurate waiting time in the waiting queue. In addition, the optimization decision variable of service provider innovatively changes from medical service capability to input of information platform optimization, and the decision goal of capital provider is to minimize social medical cost. The equilibrium strategy and the properties of equilibrium state of medical service system are studied. The equilibrium state of medical service system with different medical service scale is compared. It is found that for the public medical system, the optimal input of information platform optimization is uncorrelated with the patient co-payment rate, which is helpful to realize the equalization of basic medical services. Secondly, it is mathematically proved that in equilibrium, when patients’ medical needs increase, the budget allocated to public hospitals will decrease. Finally, the patient co-payment rate is not related to the complexity of medical services, that is, the medical costs borne by patients are not related to the complexity of medical services. These management insights will help public hospital managers to better optimize the medical information platform, and also help the government to make more reasonable decisions to prevent the unreasonable increase of medical costs.
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