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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Table of Content

    05 August 2022, Volume 30 Issue 7 Previous Issue   
    Articles
    Precise Screening Strategy of Public Health Emergency Based on Robust Optimization
    CAI Jian-ping, WANG Jing, JIAO Zi-hao
    2022, 30 (7):  1-8.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0945
    Abstract ( 101 )   PDF (1221KB) ( 541 )   Save
    Faced with the severity of public health emergencies, particularly the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), “precise screening” is the important means to implement the precise prevention and control of public health emergencies. However, how to scientifically and reasonably develop precise screening strategies for public health emergencies in order to not only quickly cut off the transmission route of the epidemic but also avoid the negative impact of excessive epidemic screening on the social economy? By classifying the population and introducing the “testing utility”, the precise screening strategy is studied, which will help prevent and control the public health emergencies in the future.
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    Investor Attention and Covariance Forecasting in China’s Stock Markets——A Study Based on the MHAR Type Models
    QU Hui, SHEN Wei
    2022, 30 (7):  9-19.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2148
    Abstract ( 38 )   PDF (2320KB) ( 395 )   Save
    Economic facts disclose that investors are not completely rational. On the one hand, investors can’t possess all the information in the financial markets due to limited attention, which causes the under-reaction of prices to some information. On the other hand, some information may induce investors’ over attention and over trading, which results in more noises in the price signals. These may cause temporarily mispricing of stocks, which generates volatility and correlation in the market.
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    Supply Chain Coordination via Option Contracts with Fairness Preference and Sales Effort
    DAI Jian-sheng, LIU Yue
    2022, 30 (7):  20-30.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1695
    Abstract ( 41 )   PDF (1746KB) ( 396 )   Save
    Considering a supply chain system consisting of a fairness-neutral supplier and a fairness-concerned retailer, where the supplier sells newsvendor-like commodities to the retailer, who can exert promotion effort to enhance stochastic market demand of the commodities. An option contract model is constructed based on fairness preference theory, where the retailer can buy physical goods or options goods.
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    Urban Resource Allocation, Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China
    LIU Feng-gen, WANG Yi-ding, YAN Jian-jun, ZHANG Min
    2022, 30 (7):  31-46.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2253
    Abstract ( 38 )   PDF (1595KB) ( 449 )   Save
    Differences in the level of urban resource allocation lead to population mobility and population agglomeration, which is a main factor for the rise of China’s real estate prices. From the perspective of the natural attributes and basic functions of commercial housing, the growth of urban population also plays a role in promoting the rise of real estate prices.Higher levels of public resources motivate the population to move from low resource allocation areas to the high allocation area. The resulting resource competition generated in the process of population agglomeration will inevitably lead to increasing real estate prices in the area.Under the background of increasing domestic and international uncertainties and the downward pressure on the macro economy, this paper reveals the formation mechanism of real estate price changes and the underlying driving factors which play an important role in the implementation of China’s current real estate market policies aimed at stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations and effective regulation of real estate prices.
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    Information Disclosure and Contract Selection under Asymmetric Information with Strategic Inventory
    JING You-guo, SONG Jian, LIU Zhen
    2022, 30 (7):  47-58.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1666
    Abstract ( 42 )   PDF (2046KB) ( 397 )   Save
    Inventory management is a critical part of the supply chain operation, and holding inventory is generally regarded as a passive choice of retailer in distribution channel. In fact, inventory may also be treated strategically as a means by the retailer to respond to manufacturer’s dynamic pricing. At the same time, the above behaviors of inventory and dynamic pricing are often influenced by the asymmetry of demand information.
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    Deliverysplit Milkrun and Supplyhub Collaborate to Optimize Automobiles Parts Inbound logistics
    HUANG Xiao-ling, CHEN Huan-ping, GAO Xiao-nan, WANG Dan, LIU Jin-ping, CHEN Ji-hong
    2022, 30 (7):  59-68.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1806
    Abstract ( 21 )   PDF (2867KB) ( 370 )   Save
    Under the influence of energy pressure, environmental protection and the increasing diversification of consumer demand, it is urgent for automobile manufacturing enterprises to improve the manufacturing system, optimize the cost, and tap the new profit space. As the most complex part of automobile logistics system, the optimization of inbound logistics is the key to reduce the total logistics cost of automobile manufacturing enterprises.
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    Stackelberg Optimization for Spare Parts’s Collaborative Innovation of Complex Products Considering Cost Sharing
    CHEN Hong-zhuan, HUANG Xin, WANG Wei-ming
    2022, 30 (7):  69-76.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1774
    Abstract ( 42 )   PDF (992KB) ( 384 )   Save
    Under the background of the technical upgrading, complex products as a representative of high-end manufacturing industry, to some extent, its industrial technological level represents the technological level of manufacturing industry. In the process of production and development of complex products which are composed of tens of thousands of spare parts, the production innovation of spare parts directly determines the production innovation of complex products, and how to study the production collaboration of spare parts from the perspective of supply chain to achieve the production collaboration of complex products has become a difficulty in the research process. Due to this reason, Based on the collaborative manufacturing mode of complex products, the collaborative innovation of complex product parts is studied under the cost sharing mechanism of the main manufacturer in the incentive of the main manufacturer mechanism, which considers the process innovation and equipment innovation of parts. Firstly, in order to motive the supplier to innovate more actively, the production function of the complex products is constructed in accordance with the degree of technological innovation and assembly innovation which is about the parts and components, meanwhile, the some relevant parameters of innovation degree is designed, then the cost-sharing incentive strategy of the main manufacturer is discussed and a Stackelberg model of collaborative innovation is built which based on the cost-sharing. Secondly, the optimal innovation level of and the optimal cost-sharing ratio of the main manufacturer are studied in the case of cost-sharing and non-sharing. Finally, the simulation results of a aircraft power support system show that the optimal cost-sharing ratio of the main manufacturer is proportional to the process elasticity and assembly elasticity, while the optimal degree of process innovation and assembly innovation are inversely proportional to the process elasticity and assembly elasticity. When the elasticity varies in a certain range, the cost-sharing situation is better than non-sharing situation. When it exceeds the certain range, the optimal choice is on-sharing situation. The innovation degree of parts and components is systematically analyzed under cost-sharing, which will provide a decision basis for long-term incentive cooperation between the supplier and the main manufacturer.
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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Knowledge Sharing Incentive in Cloud Manufacturing Innovation Ecosystem
    HE Zheng, ZHANG Zhi-zhao, YANG Xiao-hong
    2022, 30 (7):  77-87.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1465
    Abstract ( 41 )   PDF (2545KB) ( 383 )   Save
    In the process of knowledge sharing in cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem, while sharing knowledge with the supplier, the cloud manufacturing service integrator also hopes that the supplier can actively share its own knowledge and participate in the operation process of cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem. Because the cloud manufacturing service supplier is affected by information asymmetry and excessive cost of knowledge sharing, it may not participate in knowledge sharing, which leads to the problem of unsmooth knowledge sharing in cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem.In order to effectively solve the problem,the influences of key factors on innovation subject’s strategy choices and evolution paths are analyzed in different situations.Based on the principle of limited rationality and maximization of benefits, the strategy choices of cloud manufacturing service integrator and supplier are analyzed by the evolutionary game theory in the process of knowledge sharing incentive, and the evolutionary equilibrium strategies are obtained under different parameter restrictions, and the evolutionary stabilities of knowledge sharing incentive are analyzed. Finally, referring to the current situation of knowledge sharing in Haier Group’s cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem, the dynamic evolution processes of strategy selections between cloud manufacturing service integrator and supplier are analyzed by the numerical simulation based on MATLAB software. The research shows: ① The greater the cloud manufacturing service integrator’s transformation benefits of knowledge stock, knowledge sharing willingness,trust degree to the supplier, incentive cost, and the greater the knowledge absorption capacity of the cloud manufacturing service supplier,the more the system tends to evolve to the path of (no incentive, participation); ② The greater the knowledge sharing cost of the cloud manufacturing service supplier, the more the system tends to evolve to the path of (incentive, no participation); ③ The greater the penalty paid by the cloud manufacturing service supplier, the more the system tends to evolve to the path of (incentive, participation). According to the above research conclusions, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the knowledge sharing performance of cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem, which can provide the theoretical guidance for the knowledge sharing among members of cloud manufacturing innovation ecosystem.
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    Real-time Pricing Based on PMSC Management and Reward-Punishment Mechanism in Smart Grid
    GAO Hong-wei, LI Lu
    2022, 30 (7):  88-98.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2105
    Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (2059KB) ( 365 )   Save
    The emergence of smart grid provides an efficient distribution method for rapidly increasing power demand, the balance of power distribution based on demand response is one of issues keys in smart grid. This article aims at the user’s increasing market price response capacity. The user’s electrical appliance classification is considered, the electrical appliance is divided into the must-use appliances, elastic appliances and semi-elastic appliances, and an improved MIP (Mechanism of Identification and Processing) mechanism is proposed. PMSC (Power Market Scheduling Center) uses the MIP mechanism to screen out malicious users and unstable power suppliers and punish them. By enhancing the penalty mechanism for malicious users and unstable power providers, increasing the cost of providing false data, the number of malicious users and unstable power providers is reduced, while encouraging non-malicious users to prevent them from becoming malicious users, and establishing a model with the goal of maximizing social welfare to study the real-time pricing of smart grid based on PMSC management. Lagrange dual decomposition method is used to construct the Lagrange function of the model, and the decomposition function is used to find the dual problem. Finally, the heuristic algorithm is used to solve the user’s optimal power consumption and the supplier’s optimal load power. The simulation results show that: the solution algorithm can be rapidly converged, and the user’s utility can be improved under the dual adjustment of punishment and incentives; the higher the proportion of malicious users and unstable power providers, the longer it takes for electricity prices to converge, and the longer it takes for user load demands and power providers’ load capacity to stabilize. In addition, the incentive factor can increase users’ utility and social welfare within proper range. By studying the real-time pricing problem in the smart grid environment, the idea of user electrical appliance classification is provided, the malicious user screening mechanism is improved, and the reward and punishment mechanism is fully considered, which provides some methods for improving the reliability and stability of the power system.
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    Study on Efficiency Evaluation of Regional Sustainable Development System Based on BLP-DEA and Satisfaction Degree
    REN Teng, LI Shu-xuan, ZHOU Zhong-bao, LI Si-di, XIAO He-lu
    2022, 30 (7):  99-109.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0080
    Abstract ( 32 )   PDF (1509KB) ( 397 )   Save
    In order to achieve a dynamic balance between ecological environmental protection and economic development, and to obtain the greatest socio-economic benefits at the same time with the least damage to the environment, it is an urgent and key issue to achieve sustainable development. The ecological subsystem is taken as the upper layer (leader) and the economic and social subsystem are taken as the lower layer (follower), and a two-level planning ecological economic and social composite system evaluation system that considers sustainable development is constructed. By introducing public weights, interval efficiency and satisfaction, a bi-level programming-data envelopment analysis(BLP-DEA) model based on max-min satisfaction is constructed. The research method is applied to the efficiency assessment and satisfaction research of China’s regional sustainable development system from 2008 to 2017. The results show that: (1) Compared with the ordinary BLP-DEA model, the BLP-DEA model based on satisfaction constructed in this paper is an evaluation method that allows most decision-making units to accept the results of their own efficiency values. In the results, the lower-level system (economic-social sub-system System) efficiency value is generally limited to the efficiency value of the upper system (ecosystem). (2) Under the premise of satisfying the maximum satisfaction of the sustainable development system, the efficiency value of each region reflects the distinct regional characteristics. Among the comparison of ecological subsystem efficiency values, the western region has the highest efficiency value; among the economic-social subsystem efficiency values, the eastern region has the highest efficiency value; among the comprehensive efficiency values of the sustainable development system, the eastern region has the highest efficiency value.
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    The Brand Strategy of Conspicuous Goods: Brand Extension or New brand?
    WANG Qi-jun, NIE Jia-jia
    2022, 30 (7):  110-120.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1953
    Abstract ( 37 )   PDF (1522KB) ( 364 )   Save
    Conspicuous goods exist in a lot of categories, such as luxury goods, fashion products, automobiles, digital products,which satisfy not just material needs but also social needs of consumers. The consumer can get the pleasure from using conspicuous goods for showing off their wealth and status to others. This kind of pleasure could be called the status utility. In order to show off their wealth, consumers are willing to pay higher prices for the conspicuous goods than ordinary products.Moreover, companies often introduce new product lines to gain more market share. In this case, the companies need to decide the brand name for the new product. According to the behavior of the companies in reality, there are two options:New brand or brand extension. The new brand means that a brand new name is created to a new product, while brand extension means that an a new product is named an established brandname. Prior research on brand extension of the common goods has investigated how branding affect consumers’ perceptions of product quality. However,consumers of conspicuous goods care not only about product quality but also about the status of its users.This is because that the brand of conspicuous goods signals consumers’ status and gives status value to them, and the status value of the product is influenced by the expectedwealth of its users.People used to identify product origin by their brand (brand name or brand logo). Thus, if adopt brand extension to introduce new product, the consumers of new product and original product will obtain identical brand status, while the consumers of new product and original product will get different status utility if adopt new brand strategy.Intuitively,consumers’ status utility would influence their purchase decisions, which further affect firm’s profit.
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    The Economics of Cloud Queueing System
    WANG Zhong-bin
    2022, 30 (7):  121-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0814
    Abstract ( 233 )   PDF (1098KB) ( 430 )   Save
    With the rise of intelligent reservation systems in congestion-prone service systems, the phenomena of “long waiting time” have been greatly alleviated. The simple operation of cloud queueing system has been well accepted by a large number of businesses and customers. A queuing-game model is established, and the impact of “cloud queuing system” on customers and service provider is analyzed theoretically in the framework of the current popular service industries. The following results are obtained in this paper. First, the equilibrium strategies for two types of customers are characterized. Second, it is found that the prevalence of cloud queueing can encourage the online customers to join, but it worsens the utilities of offline customers, and reduce their enthusiasm. Third, the revenue of service provider can be improved in the presence of cloud queueing, and a higher price should be set accordingly.
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    MGM (1, m, N) Model Based on the New Kernel and Degree of Greyness Sequences and Its Application
    XIONG Ping-ping, CHEN Shi-ting, ZHOU Yi-fan, LIU Yu-chun, DING Song
    2022, 30 (7):  130-139.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1993
    Abstract ( 23 )   PDF (1755KB) ( 390 )   Save
    Haze is regarded as one of the important indicators of air quality evaluation. And accurate prediction and analysis of haze are considered toprovide theoretical support for relevant government departments to make correct decisions. Various kinds of suspended particles exceeding the standard in the atmosphere are collectively referred to as haze, and the influencing factors are divided into pollutant concentration and meteorological factors. This paper in which PM2.5 and PM10 are represented as suspended particles and SO2, CO, NO2 and O3are regarded as the relevant factors of pollutant concentration is mainly used to discuss the influence of pollutant concentration on suspended particles.
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    Dynamic Evolution Research on Emergency Decision Quality of Large Group Based on the Public Preferences Big Data
    XU Xuan-hua, MA Zhi-peng, CHEN Xiao-hong
    2022, 30 (7):  140-149.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0986
    Abstract ( 43 )   PDF (2826KB) ( 401 )   Save
    In recent years, more and more emergencies have severely affected our economic construction and social development, which urgently needs larger-scale expert wisdom experience to improve the quality of emergency decision-making for large groups. At the same time, with the rapid development and popularization of the Internet, emergencies will arouse the enthusiastic attention and discussion of the public, whose opinions and emotions will be transmitted through big data. While increasing the risk of events, it will also provide new opportunities for emergency decisions analysis and information channels. Therefore, through theoretical analysis and experimental research, research is conducted on the influencing factors and dynamic evolution of the large group emergency decision quality, in order to find methods to improve the large group emergency decision quality. Based on the real case data of “8.12 Tianjin Port Explosion”, the dynamic evolution process of the large group emergency decision quality is characterized and evaluated, and further empirical tests are made on the influencing factors obtained from the previous theoretical analysis. Different information diffusion models provide a new research entry point for traditional large-group theory research and methods. This article extracts and quantifies public risk perception by capturing big data on public big data during emergencies, and then from the level of public participation guided and evaluated the dynamic evolution process of the large group emergency decision quality, re-examined the impact of decision hesitation on the large group emergency decision quality, and put forward corresponding management countermeasures based on the research conclusions.
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    Bond Portfolio Optimization Strategy with Target Tracking of CRMW Default Risk Mitigation Utility
    YANG Rui-cheng, XING Wei-ze
    2022, 30 (7):  150-163.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1726
    Abstract ( 21 )   PDF (2838KB) ( 350 )   Save
    Since 2018, default events occurred frequently in the Chinese bond market. In this context, Credit Risk Mitigation Warrants (CRMW), sometimes called Chinese credit default swaps(CDS), was issued by the inter-banks bond market in China in 2018. The measurement of CRMW risk mitigation ability and the application of CRMW in the bond portfolio become the key issues to be solved urgently. The reduced model is introduced to measure the default probability of underlying bond, and the default intensity is driven by a two-factor CIR process. Applying State-space model and Kalman filter approaches, the related parameters of the CIR process are estimated according to a time series of historical prices of bonds and risk-free rate. Invoked by CVaR theory, the Default Risk Mitigation Utility (DRMU) of a CRMW is proposed to measure the ability that CRMW mitigates the default risk of underlying bond, and the dynamic risk of bonds with probability quantile is introduced. Given a tracking benchmark, the target of dynamic risk mitigation, a portfolio optimization policy is developed to reasonably utilize CRMW. Using the market data of CRMW and its underlying bonds, the behavior of the optimal portfolio is analyzed. The experiment results show that the optimized portfolio possesses a desired performance for different β quantile and a reasonable risk transfer ratio α, that is, under the premise of guaranteeing the investment return target, the optimal portfolio can achieve the target of dynamic risk mitigation. In addition, the portfolio optimization policy shows a better anti-risk performance. The higher the risk in the scenario, the more robust the optimized portfolio will be. Therefore, the proposed method in this paper can effectively measures the ability of CRMW to mitigate the default risk of underlying bonds,and provides an optimized portfolio strategy to mitigate the default risk of underlying bonds by using CRMW.
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    Optimal Environmental Technology Investment of Manufacturers in Competitive Supply Chains
    YANG Zhen-hua, FENG Zhan-bin, SHEN Qiang, DONG Xiao-song
    2022, 30 (7):  164-175.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1965
    Abstract ( 41 )   PDF (1769KB) ( 102 )   Save
    In recent years, with the development of the economy, consumers have higher and higher requirements for corporate environmental protection, and more and more companies have begun to pursue green, low-carbon, and sustainable development. For example, the three-way catalytic converter technology in the automobile industry can effectively improve the utilization rate of gasoline and reduce exhaust gas emissions such as carbon monoxide; Heat pump technology and frequency conversion technology in the air conditioning industry can reduce energy consumption. However, in a competitive market environment, companies also need to consider the impact of competitors’ market pricing and environmental investment strategies when determining their own environmental technology investment decisions. This not only complicates the enterprise environmental technology investment decision-making process and the competition and cooperation game relationship, but also may lead to the imbalance of corporate decision-making incentives and the loss of corporate performance. As a result, by constructing three-stage game model between one supplier and two competing manufacturers, it is aimed to study how should manufacturers determine their environmental investment strategies and price strategies in a competitive market environment? How can manufacturers adjust pricing and environmental investment decisions to maintain their competitive advantage and maximize profits? And what impact will environmental technology investment have on supplier pricing, profits, as well as consumer purchasing behavior and consumer welfare?
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    Research on the Motivation and Formation Mechanism of Online Products Deceptive Reviews
    ZHANG Wen, WANG Qiang, MA Zhen-zhong, LI Jian, XIE Rui
    2022, 30 (7):  176-188.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2022
    Abstract ( 23 )   PDF (1775KB) ( 82 )   Save
    The online deceptive reviews (ODRs)make great loss for the E-commerce ecosystem that includes online consumers, online merchants, and online platforms. Based on the motivation theory, the motivation and formation mechanism of ODRs are studied. On the one hand, we examine the motivation of consumers and merchants that may post deceptive reviews by using questionnaire survey.On the other hand, data analysis and structural equation model are combined to explore the formation mechanism of ODRs. Five types of motivations are investigated for posting ODRs with the two dimensions as consumer-related motivation and business-related motivation. A structural equation model is constructed to empirically examine the formation mechanism of ODRs. The findings of the paper are as follows. Firstly, the motivation of emotional catharsis, incentive mechanism, perfunctory response, and hiring “water army” is the direct motivation of posting ODRs. Secondly,the motivation of hiring “water army” has an indirect impact on the behavior of posting ODRs with the intermediary path of supporting or libeling merchants and promoting or defaming the merchants’ commodities. Thirdly, the “water army” post ODRs by promoting the merchants’ commodities and defaming the competitors’ commodities and, the underlying motivation of hiring “water army” is to boast the merchants and beat the competitors. The great managerial implications are provided to improve and optimize the ODRs management practice in the E-commerce platform and potential directions of effective governance and prevention of ODRs are provided.
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    Research on Bidding and Timing of Hostile Mergers under White Knight Strategy
    ZHANG Wei-guo, HU Wen-xiu, DU Jin-zhu
    2022, 30 (7):  189-200.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0223
    Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (1546KB) ( 34 )   Save
    From the practice that the target company often introduces the white knight to resist the hostile M&A, the dynamic competitive and hostile M&A model is built under the white knight strategy by introducing the termination fee agreement. The critical points of the pater are the solutions in equilibrium for optimal bidding strategies in bidding phase, the optimal entering decisions for the white knight, the optimal termination fee strategy for the target company, and the best initial offering strategy for the hostile acquirer in the sequential entry phase, and the optimal hostile merger timing for the hostile acquirer in the timing choice phase. The research results show that the termination fee reduces both the optimal biddings of the hostile acquirer and the white knight, but does not change the bidding result, that is, the acquirer with the largest synergy coefficient obtains the target enterprise ownership. There is a threshold of the synergy coefficient. When the synergy coefficient of the hostile acquirer is higher than the threshold, the hostile bidder makes a preemptive bid, and the target company accepts the offer; otherwise, the hostile bidder does not make the preemptive bid, the target company signed a termination fee agreement with the white knight, and the white knight competed with the hostile M&A for the target company. The white knight strategy increases the synergy coefficient threshold and preemptive bid, reduces the expected merger value of the hostile acquirer, delays the timing of hostile M&A, and prevents the occurrence of hostile M&A with positive returns when the random impact is small.
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    Multi-Objective Optimization of Overseas Warehouse Location for Cross-border E-commerce Enterprises
    HU Yu-zhen, LI Qian-qian, JIANG Shan
    2022, 30 (7):  201-209.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0555
    Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (1299KB) ( 41 )   Save
    As a new cross-border logistic mode under the strategic environment of the Belt and Road, overseas warehouses have the characteristics of short transportation time and fast return and exchange.In the context of cross-border e-commerce, a multi-objective optimization model is present for overseas warehouse location,considering the factors of warehouse construction cost, transportation cost, transportation time, tariff and so on.Under the conditions of giving the supply point and demand point,the model figures out a set of overseas warehouse location plan and commodity transportation plan to obtain the optimal value of the three objectives which are listed via their priorities. The first objective is to minimize the maximal warehouse construction cost. The second is to minimize the sum of transportation costs, taxes, and customer time penalty costs incurred during transportation. The last is to minimize the number of overseas warehouses. Afterward, based on the priority of the objectives in the model, a binary search-minimum cost flow algorithm is designed based on the stratified sequencing method to solve the model, and it is proved that the algorithm can achieve the optimal solution with polynomial time. Finally, an example is given to prove the feasibility and practicability of the model and algorithm. The results show that the Binary search-Minimum cost flow algorithm can be used to solve the multi-objective problem to obtain a better location scheme. This provides theoretical basis and decision support for the selection of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses.
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    Research on Surge Subsidy Strategy of Ride-hailing Platform
    LIU Yang, DENG Qian-qian, FAN Zhi-ping, ZHANG Qi
    2022, 30 (7):  210-220.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2050
    Abstract ( 31 )   PDF (1425KB) ( 44 )   Save
    Surge subsidy strategies are frequently adopted by the ride-hailing platform when the supplement of drivers is not sufficient during the surge demand period. According to the different sources of subsidy cost, surge subsidy strategies can be classified into three categories, i.e., platform subsidizing drivers strategy, passengers subsidizing drivers strategy, platform and passengers simultaneously subsidizing drivers strategy. Which surge subsidy strategy should be adopted under a given market scenario? It is worth to conduct the research on surge subsidy strategy of ride-hailing platform.
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    An Empirical Measure of Consumption Credit’s Profit Contribution in Chinese Gender Difference——From the Evidence of Credit Card Business in Commercial Banks
    WANG Xing, ZHANG Jin-qing
    2022, 30 (7):  221-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.2133
    Abstract ( 19 )   PDF (1190KB) ( 45 )   Save
    The issue of consumer credit profitability has always been a research topic of great concern to commercial banks and consumer finance companies. Take credit card as an example, in foreign countries, credit card is a high profit product. In contrast, the profit level of credit card business in China is obviously insufficient, most of the credit card businesses are still in a loss state.In order to improve the profitability of commercial banks’ credit card business, the mechanism and path of the influence of gender difference on the profit contribution of consumer credit are studied, so as to help commercial institutions grasp the core variable and influence path of consumer credit. The mediating effect model of consumption credit’s profit contribution in Chinese gender difference is established, based on the commercial banks’ 103,455 accounts and their transaction records from the past year. The results show that in terms of comprehensive effects, women ’s contribution to consumption credit’s profit is significantly higher than that of men. In terms of indirect effects and direct effects, gender difference has a significant impact on the contribution of consumption credit profit by affecting the frequency of transactions. Loan and risk level have totally negative indirect effects. Transaction amount, loyalty and the current transaction time have no significant impact on the profit contribution. It’s said that consumption financial institutions should change the scale-driven development path in the past into the transaction-driven path to reactive the existing customers, especially the women customers. Meantime, China should develop the female economy, women ’s consumption ecology to improve the overall profit contribution.
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    The Goal Programming Model Solving Fuzzy Cooperative Games with Priority Coalition
    NAN Jiang-xia, WEI Li-xiao, LI Deng-feng, ZHANG Mao-jun
    2022, 30 (7):  231-240.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1629
    Abstract ( 25 )   PDF (963KB) ( 45 )   Save
    As the allocation problem in practical management problem is studied by cooperative game theory, there exist some unimportant coalitions or invalid coalitions, which affect the fairness and rationality of the allocation. For example, the joint investment problem: if the three enterprises which are denoted as enterprise 1, enterprise 2 and enterprise 3, they partly participate in the joint investment in H company due to the consideration of risk, while enterprise 2 can provide the H company with advanced technology at the same time. If only enterprise 1 and enterprise 3 participate in the cooperation, the characteristic function value of the coalition {1,3} is far less than coalitions {1,2} and {2,3}, so the coalition {1,3} will not be given firstly priority in the cooperation, which is a cooperative game with priority coalitions. However, these coalitions in cooperative games are treated equally solving by some exiting solutions such as core, Shapley value and the least square pre-nucleolus, which cannot reflect the different importance of the coalitions in the cooperation. Thus, it is necessary to find a new solution to consider the importance of coalitions.
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    Max-NPV Project Scheduling Based on Optimizing the Resource Flow Network
    LIANG Yang-yang, WANG Tian, CUI Nan-fang
    2022, 30 (7):  241-251.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1431
    Abstract ( 17 )   PDF (2110KB) ( 23 )   Save
    The Max-NPV problem is a new branch of the resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP), in which numerous models and algorithms for generating a workable baseline schedule (BS) have been advocated by various authors in a static and deterministic environment. During execution, however, a practical project is subject to high levels of uncertainty. As a result, one or more project activities may take more time than anticipated in the BS. Moreover, those activity delays can propagate throughout the resource flow network due to the constraints of both strictly technological precedence relations and resource-driven precedence relations, resulting in a kind of snowball effect and incurring great impacts on the expected project NPV especially for capital-intensive IT and construction projects. Therefore, it is crucial and practical to generate a stable baseline schedule to ensure that the realized payment time of cash flows occurs as closely as possible to its original plan in a stochastic environment.
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    Disaggregating China’s National Carbon-reduction Target Based on Optimizing the Total Cost of Emission Reduction
    DU Juan, PAN Meng, WANG Yun-feng
    2022, 30 (7):  252-263.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0073
    Abstract ( 30 )   PDF (1632KB) ( 109 )   Save
    In order to take an active role in fighting greenhouse effect and global warming, China is vigorously promoting the ecological civilization construction and a new mode of harmonious development between man and nature. One of the important measures is to establish the national market for trading carbon emissions. How to equitably allocate the national carbon reduction target at the provincial level is one of the key factors to ensure the orderly running of the carbon trading market. Under the frame of efficiency analysis, directional distance function (DDF) is used to assess for each provincial region the quantitative trend between its GDP loss and carbon emission reduction. Based on the fitted regression equations, the GDP decreases directly caused by emission reductions can be calculated and viewed as the costs of cutting carbon. Then a programming method is developed to disaggregate China’s national reduction target of carbon dioxide emissions at the provincial level by minimizing total reduction cost.The results indicate that different provincial regions tend to share different levels of reduction target depending on their economic conditions, industrial structures and energy structures. All 30 provincial regions are divided into four clusters by economic development and emissions level. Provinces belonging to the same cluster exhibit similar trend in carbon reduction. Detailed discussions are provided for each cluster on the economic and industrial status, and on how to achieve sustainable development. Under the stepwise regression analysis, three factors, namely GDP, per capita GDP and carbon dioxide emissions have a significant positive impact on the allocation results, while the second industry proportion and the third industry proportion influence them in a negative way.
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    Research on Encroachment with Product Returns
    HUANG Fu, SONG Hua-ming, YANG Hui, LV Yi-fan, WU Jia-wei, ZHANG Zhe
    2022, 30 (7):  264-275.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0239
    Abstract ( 28 )   PDF (2123KB) ( 47 )   Save
    The optimal quantity in a two-level supply chain model consisting of a manufacturer, a retailer and consumer considering money-back guarantees is studied.The effects of money-back guarantees and decision sequence on equilibrium results, threshold of adding direct channel are analyzed. By the comparison analysis, it is found that in a single retail channel supply chain, compared to not offering money back guarantees, offering money back guarantees not only increases total sales, manufacturer profit and consumer surplus, but also increases retailer profit. Offering money back guarantees enables manufacturer, retailer and consumers achieve “three wins”. In the dual-channel supply chain, whether it is a sequential decision or a simultaneous decision, offering money back guarantees always reduces the retailer’s profit, and the retailer’s profit increases with the direct sales cost; offering money back guarantees increases the direct sales volume and the total sales volume. Direct sales volume and total sales volume decrease with direct sales cost, manufacturer's profit and total profit decrease first and then increase with direct sales cost; in the case of sequential decision-making, direct sales volume increases with retail satisfaction, but in the case of simultaneous decision-making, direct sales volume decreases with retail satisfaction. When retail satisfaction is high and direct selling costs are low, offering money back guarantees can improve manufacturer profit, but when retail satisfaction is high and direct selling costs are high, offering money back guarantees reduces manufacturer profit.
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    Network Communication Platforms’ Pricing Strategies Considering Intra-group Network Externalities and Consumers’ Multi-homing Behavior
    ZHAO Ju, WANG Yan, CAO Zong-hong, LIU Long, YANG Ai-feng
    2022, 30 (7):  276-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.0856
    Abstract ( 32 )   PDF (1393KB) ( 58 )   Save
    With the development of platform construction technology, the market of network communication platforms has changed from monopoly to duopoly or oligopoly. For example, in China, China Mobile monopolized the market in 80’s of last century, but now there are a three-pronged situation of China Mobile, Telecom and China Unicom. At the same time, with the improvement of the economic level, consumers have also shifted from single-homing to partial multi-homing. Motivated by the observation, how the market structure and the changes of consumers' behavior affect the platforms’ optimal pricing decision and profits is investigated.
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