考虑“因素-阶段”双重关联的复杂装备交付风险动态评估方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1330

Abstract

Abstract:

The delivery link of the integrated supply chain of complex equipment is the key to the transformation of national defense combat power. Due to the complex and changeable delivery environment and the complex product technology， risks in the delivery process are frequent， and how to effectively identify and control risks has become a research difficulty in academia and industry. To solve this problem， the dynamic model of complex equipment delivery risk is studied under which delivery risk factors and stages （factors-stages） are related. According to the characteristics of complex equipment delivery， a criteria system affecting the delivery risk is constructed； the preference of decision-makers is expressed by using probabilistic linguistic terms， and a prospect theoretical analysis model that considers dynamic reference points and loss aversion coefficients are proposed； considering the dual correlation of factors-stages， risk measurement models based on Choquet integral are constructed. Finally， the feasibility of the method is verified based on the survey data of an aviation manufacturing enterprise. The results show that：（1） Due to poor technical stability， the delivery risk level of new complex equipment is higher than other types of risks；（2） Knowing customer needs in the early stage can help enterprises to resolve some risks in advance， helping to shorten the delivery cycle and improve customer satisfaction；（3） There is an interactive relationship between delivery risk， and enterprises need to focus on related risks when conducting risk investigation. It can support the decision-making of complex equipment delivery risk management and control schemes， continuously enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises， and provide a specific theoretical basis and practical value for enterprise delivery risk management and control.

Key words: delivery risk of complex equipment, dynamic model, dual correction of factors-stages, probabilistic linguistic terms

CLC Number:

C934

Siqi Zhang, Jianjun Zhu. A Dynamic Assessment Method for Complex Equipment Delivery Risk Considering the Dual Correlation of “Factors - stages”[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(5): 173-183.

Figures/Tables 10

期望值	$g 1$	$g 2$	$g 3$	$g 4$	$g 5$
$h 1$	0.8095	0.8000	0.8286	0.6349	0.3429
$h 2$	0.6667	0.6000	0.6429	0.8000	0.5000
$h 3$	0.6714	0.6032	0.5429	0.5429	0.3492
$h 4$	0.5238	0.6714	0.4857	0.4857	0.3571

期望值	$g 1$	$g 2$	$g 3$	$g 4$	$g 5$
$h 1$	0.4571	0.6000	0.4714	0.4714	0.3286
$h 2$	0.4714	0.4603	0.3429	0.4571	0.3143
$h 3$	0.3143	0.4857	0.3286	0.3286	0.3143
$h 4$	0.3143	0.4571	0.3429	0.3143	0.2143

前景值	$g 1$	$g 2$	$g 3$	$g 4$	$g 5$
$h 1$	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.7145	1.0000
$h 2$	0.6923	1.0000	0.7269	0.0000	0.0000
$h 3$	0.6576	0.9914	0.9077	0.8990	0.9780
$h 4$	1.0000	0.7945	1.0000	1.0000	0.9502

前景值	$g 1$	$g 2$	$g 3$	$g 4$	$g 5$
$h 1$	0.1093	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
$h 2$	0.0000	0.9881	0.9464	0.1255	0.2686
$h 3$	1.0000	0.8897	1.0000	0.9474	0.2686
$h 4$	1.0000	1.0000	0.9464	1.0000	1.0000

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一级指标	二级指标	含义及描述
交付人员风险(g₁)	操作规范性差(g₁₁)	操作规范不统一，复杂装备表面易出现划伤、掉漆等情况
	安全意识薄弱(g₁₂)	高空作业人员有坠落的风险，地面作业人员有被高空抛物砸伤的风险
	随机工具配发错误(g₁₃)	不同装备的随机工具略有差异，工作人员对其认知不足，容易错误配发
	随机设备等配套资料缺失(g₁₄)	工作人员检查不仔细，配套资料易缺失
交付设备风险(g₂)	随机设备等延期交付(g₂₁)	随机设备等可能存在配套不齐全、过期等情况
	零部件等存在质量缺陷(g₂₂)	各厂家对零部件质量管控不严格
	复杂装备技术状态不稳定(g₂₃)	装备设计更改频繁，改装工作造成的衍生故障较多
交付管理风险(g₃)	检查所需资源分配不合理(g₃₁)	检查所需的场地、人员、工具及设备不足
交付管理风险(g₃)	记录性文件填写不规范(g₃₂)	对记录性文件填写等要求贯彻不到位，文件填写/更改不正确
交付标准风险(g₄)	喷漆标准不一致(g₄₁)	客户不认同企业现行喷漆标准
交付标准风险(g₄)	交付检查标准不一致(g₄₂)	客户和企业参照的检查标准不一致
交付环境风险(g₅)	不良气候条件(g₅₁)	在露天开放环境下工作，遇雷雨等不良天气
交付环境风险(g₅)	其他交付风险(g₅₂)	如在现场试用结束后发现有漆面损伤等

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A Dynamic Assessment Method for Complex Equipment Delivery Risk Considering the Dual Correlation of “Factors - stages”

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