房地产价格波动与金融脆弱性:——基于中国的实证研究

Abstract

Abstract: Recent studies show that there are intimate connections between price fluctuation of real estate and financial fragility. From this perspective, by selecting six index in the two leves of economic face and micro finance measuring the financial fragility of our country, this paper establish the vector auto-regressive model to analysis the relationship between price fluctuation of real estate and financial fragility. The empirical results show that: there is the two-way causality between price fluctuation and financial fragility; Specifically, price fluctuation of real estate has some negative effect on financial fragility in the short term, a positive impact in later period; the banking sector has more sensitive reaction to the shock of real estate price, meanwhile, real estate market fluctuations has certain positive impact on maro-economy and banking sector in the short term, but then exacerbate their fragility and the effects on macroeconomic in relatively larger degree.

Key words: price fluctuation of real estate industry, financial fragility, VAR model

CLC Number:

F830
C931

WEN Feng-hua, ZHANG A-lan, DAI Zhi-feng, YANG Xiao-guang. Price Fluctuation of Real Estate Industry and Financial Fragility: An Empirical Study Based on Chinese[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (2): 1-10.

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Price Fluctuation of Real Estate Industry and Financial Fragility: An Empirical Study Based on Chinese

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