网络社区群体观点演化的弹性与突变机制

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0247

Abstract

Abstract:

The sudden change phenomenon in group opinion in online communities is becoming increasingly prominent and needs to be described and predicted by reasonable methods. Combining catastrophe theory with resilience modeling， resilience index prediction methods are proposed for sudden changes in group opinion of online communities. Taking Xiaomi community as an example， the catastrophe model is fitted and the resilience calculation is performed. Then the method is verified and confirmed from several perspectives， and the stability of the resilience threshold under different community sizes is tested through comparative experiments. The influence of key variables on group opinion and the relationship between resilience index and fluctuation of product reputation are discussed for the actual case of Xiaomi community. The contribution of this paper is the establishment of the resilience index prediction method for the sudden changes in group opinion in online communities. The actual case study shows that this work can quickly grasp the level of group opinion in online communities and predict the fluctuation of it， providing support for community management decisions.

Key words: complex systems, group opinion, catastrophe theory, resilience

CLC Number:

C912.6

Zilin Zeng, Bin Hu, Zhichao Wang, Xiaomeng Ma. The Resilience and Sudden Change Mechanism of Group Opinion in Online Community[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(9): 161-176.

Figures/Tables 15

分类	自变量	变量名称	变量含义
楼主特性	$x 1$	state_sentiment	楼主的观点情绪值
	$x 2$	power	楼主等级
	$x 3$	minus_sentiment	楼主观点与跟帖评论观点差异的绝对值
帖子特性	$x 4$	scan	帖子浏览量
帖子特性	$x 5$	agree	帖子点赞数
跟帖者特性	$x 6$	comment_variance	跟帖评论观点标准差
	$x 7$	frequency	跟帖评论中出现频率最高的三个词频率
	$x 8$	topword_sentiment	频率最高的三个词的平均情绪
语义网络特征	$x 9$	num_nodes	评论语义网络节点数
	$x 10$	num_edges	评论语义网络边数
	$x 11$	density	评论语义网络密度
	$x 12$	global_efficiency	语义网络全局效率
	$x 13$	transitivity	语义网络传递性

References 35

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模型	R²	logLik	npar	AIC	AICc	BIC
Linear	0.4067943	-11896.69	15	23823.37	23823.42	23931.60
Logist	0.4340182	-11660.66	25	22271.32	22271.45	23351.70
Cusp	0.4371062	-10878.27	26	21808.55	21808.69	21996.14

The Resilience and Sudden Change Mechanism of Group Opinion in Online Community

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