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Table of Content

    20 October 2022, Volume 30 Issue 10 Previous Issue   
    Articles
    Loan Default Forecasting Based on Zero-inflated Quantile Two-part Model
    WANG Xiao-yan, YUAN Teng, DUAN Xiang-bin
    2022, 30 (10):  1-13.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0441
    Abstract ( 580 )   PDF (1427KB) ( 1201 )   Save
    Loan is not only a main means of solving the shortage of finances, but also an important business of financial institutions. Loan default forecasting is an essential content of bank risk management. To measure the loan credit risk of lenders, the number of days overdue is an informative variable commonly used. It shows whether the lender defaulted or not, but also the extent of default. However, this variable usually has an obvious zero-inflated characteristic, that is, there exists a quite large proportion of zero observations. Those zeros usually bring challenges to traditional credit default forecasting models.
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    Is Gold a Safe Haven of the Stock Market?——Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlation Mixed Data Sampling Model
    TAN De-kai, TIAN Li-hui
    2022, 30 (10):  14-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1285
    Abstract ( 390 )   PDF (1371KB) ( 855 )   Save
    Gold has always been regarded as an important safe-haven asset. With the increase in global uncertainties in recent years, gold investment is once again favored by investors. Whether gold can be used as a safe haven for the stock market investors is a hot topic in academic literature. However, the existing literature not only has inconsistent conclusions, but also does not give an empirical explanation of why gold hedging function has changed.
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    Study on Identification of Financing Risks for Transport Infrastructure Construction under a Pluralistic Integrated Mode
    SUO Wei-lan, ZHANG Jin
    2022, 30 (10):  25-34.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1207
    Abstract ( 315 )   PDF (1301KB) ( 768 )   Save
    The transition from a single mode to a pluralistic integrated mode has become an inevitable choice to broaden the financing channels for transport infrastructure construction under the current new situation. The pluralistic integrated mode can avoid the limitations of a single mode and form the combined strengths of multiple modes. Nevertheless, it also increases the uncertainty and complexity of financing, which puts forward the higher requirements for financing risk identification.
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    Default Risk, Banking Credit Screening and the Asymmetric Effects Monetary Policy
    CHEN Li-feng, WANG Jun-jie, ZHONG Yu-ting, LI Liang-yan
    2022, 30 (10):  35-45.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0623
    Abstract ( 254 )   PDF (1315KB) ( 617 )   Save
    Credit discrimination is a common phenomenon in our economy,and it would affects the economy in different ways.For the purpose of analysis the macroeconomic impacts of credit discrimination, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is considered with firm’s default risk and bank’s credit screening behavior, and the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy with banks’ credit screening are investigated. On the basis of parameters calibration, the dynamic path of macroeconomic variables after monetary policy shocks hit the economy is simulated, that is,the impulse response functions of monetary policy.They shows that,firstly,bank’s credit screening restrained the positive effects of monetary policy both for the long and short term,that is to say,the positive effects of positive monetary policy shocks would be smaller when bank’s credit screening existed.Secondly,further,the short term effects of monetary policy shows that bank’s credit screening restrained the real effects of positive monetary policy shocks,and augmented its effects on inflation.That is,when there is bank’s credit screening behavior,the impacts of positive monetary policy on output,employment,investment,and the other real variables will be smaller than the bank’s credit screening behavior disappeared.But when there is bank’s credit screening behavior,inflation will arise much higher when positive monetary policy proposed.Last but not the least important,when comparing the impulse response functions of positive and negative monetary policy shocks, it is found that bank’s credit screening leads to a asymmetric effects of monetary policy.Further,the result of welfare analysis argues that,compared with the circumstance without bank’s credit screening,bank’s credit screening makes the aggregate welfare deteriorates.The results implies that,the monetary policy authority should pay more attention to the asymmetric effects of monetary policy for the purpose of scientific decision of monetary policy.
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    Systemic Financial Risk Spillover and Its Topology Analysis of Sector Indexes in China under a Multi-Scale View
    LIU Chao, GUO Ya-dong
    2022, 30 (10):  46-59.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0324
    Abstract ( 273 )   PDF (2845KB) ( 750 )   Save
    In recent years, systemic financial risks frequently break out, which causes great attention from scholars at home and abroad. At present, most scholars are concerned with the spillover effects between two sectors from a static perspective. To uncover the spillover effect among sectors in China, the industry indexes of Shenwan Index are selected, which includes 28 sectors as the research object. Firstly, from static and dynamic perspectives, the characteristics of systemic financial risk spillover effect of economic sectors in different time scales and time periods are studied by using the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform method and the spillover index method. Then, the networks of risk spillover effect in different time scales and time periods are constructed to analyze its topology evolution laws. Experimental results are as follows: the level of risk spillover of economic sectors is relatively high, and the connectedness of the overall market is strong; the main risk spillover sectors include the national defense industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and non-ferrous metals at the original scale; the main risk acceptance sectors involve capital markets, chemical, electromechanical, service industries, and biopharmaceutical industry; the characteristics of risk spillover effect of economic sectors vary significantly under different time scales, and the risk spillover effect tends to be weak with the increase in time scales; the risk spillover effect of endogenous crisis is higher than that of exogenous crisis; the risk spillover effect favors for the sectors in the same community. Our conclusions provide theoretical supports for decision-makers. Regulators should pay more attention to the main risk spillover sectors under different time scales and protect the main risk acceptance sectors to make sure they run smoothly. For investors, it is necessary to recognize the risk spillover characteristics of industries in different time scales, evaluate the impact of the main risk spillover industries, and make rational investments.
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    Research on the Influence Mechanism of Legal Environment on the Recovery of Non-performing Loans
    LI Nan, CHEN Mu-zi, YANG Xiao-guang
    2022, 30 (10):  60-71.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1181
    Abstract ( 276 )   PDF (1103KB) ( 616 )   Save
    Recovery of non-performing loans is an important link for commercial Banks to serve the real economy and improve asset quality. Due to the weak legal awareness, some enterprises will be punished with low intensity after default, so they deliberately evade loans,which aggravates the risk accumulation of non-performing loans. It can be seen that the regional legal environment plays an important role in the recovery of non-performing loans. Based on the non-performing loan recovery data of enterprises in a national commercial bank in China, the influence mechanism and path of the legal environment on the non-performing loan recovery is studied by using the mediation effect test model.
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    Multifractal Cross-Correlation between Cryptocurrency and Chinese Stock Market Based on MFXDMA Method
    XIE Wen-hao, CAO Guang-xi
    2022, 30 (10):  72-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0402
    Abstract ( 316 )   PDF (2399KB) ( 652 )   Save
    Cryptocurrency, an emerging financial market, has attracted extensive attention of scholars. The traditional research on cryptocurrency is often limited to the cryptocurrency market, and the research on the correlation between cryptocurrency and China’s stock market is relatively lacking.Based on the multifractal moving average cross-correlation analysis (MFXDMA), four types of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin), Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Hang Seng Index are taken as the research objects, empirically analyzes the multifractal characteristics of the returns between the cryptocurrency single market and cross-market, and at the same time the multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation of cryptocurrencies and the Shanghai Stock Index and the Hang Seng Index is focused on. The empirical results show that the returns of the individual markets of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin have long-term memory, asymmetric multifractal characteristics. Among the four cryptocurrencies markets, Ethereum is the most efficient, while Bitcoin is the least efficient. The cryptocurrency market has had a certain impact on the mainland stock market and Hong Kong stock market, and the cross-correlation between the markets has been strengthened, it also shows the asymmetrical multifractal characteristics.In the empirical analysis of the correlation between Bitcoin and China’s stock market, The MFXDMA method is compared with the commonly used MFXDFA and MFSMXA multifractal methods, and it is found that MFXDMA and MFSMXA have achieved similar results.By comparing and analyzing the cross-market of Bitcoin, Bitcoin, and Ethereum using the central and forward moving average method, experiments show that the results of this paper using the backward moving average are robust. Finally, the time-varying characteristics of single market and cross-market correlation and volatility function are studied by using sliding window technology. The results show that Bitcoin and Ethereum, Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Hang Seng index have certain similarity in time-varying characteristics, and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is more susceptible to the impact of cryptocurrency market than Hang Seng Index. The correlation between cryptocurrency and China’s stock market is studied, which is of great significance for the risk aversion of China’s stock market. It can be used as a reference for the cross-market portfolio research of cryptocurrency and China’s stock market and the financial risk supervision of relevant departments.
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    The Evolutionary Game and Stability of the Regulatory Mechanism of Medical Protective Equipment Market under COVID-19 Epidemic
    LIANG Yan-ru, LIU Yi-qing
    2022, 30 (10):  85-95.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0448
    Abstract ( 444 )   PDF (1705KB) ( 1087 )   Save
    The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a surge in the demand for medical protective equipment such as masks. Some enterprises have engaged in disorderly behaviors such as price gouging and manufacturing and selling fake goods, which have made the prevention and control of the epidemic more difficult. At this time, the government is needed to supervise the market. It is necessary to design a practical solution that can stabilize the market order in the shortest time. In order to discuss the dynamic mechanism of medical protective equipment market supervision, a three-agent static evolutionary game among local government, protective equipment company, and consumer is established. Through the sensitivity analysis, it is found that the sensitivity index of each key parameter is less than 1, and the model has good robustness. Based on static evolutionary game model, a dynamic penalty model and a dynamic penalty-subsidy model are constructed in order. System dynamics is used to simulate the stability of each evolutionary equilibrium solution under different mechanisms, and Lyapunov's stability theorem is used to verify the equilibrium point of evolutionary stability. The results show that: (1) under a completely static mechanism, the game process of the three game players cannot reach a stable equilibrium state. (2)The introduction of dynamic punishment, subsidies and other methods can better suppress the behavioral fluctuations of the game subject, and urge protective equipment companies to take honest management as their better choice. (3) A new type of non-linear dynamic penalty-subsidy mechanism is proposed, under which the incentive effect is the best. And the protective equipment enterprise reaches the ideal stable situation on the fifth day. Some ideas for local governments are provided to design a reasonable and standardized medical protective equipment market plan under the COVID-19 epidemic situation.
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    Evolutionary Game of P2P Lending Platform Illegal Governance under Industry Self-Regulatory
    LI Dong-dong, LI Chun-fa, WANG Sheng-kai
    2022, 30 (10):  96-108.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0159
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (2839KB) ( 414 )   Save
    Industry self-regulation is an important part of the governance of violations of P2P online loan platforms under the background of "strong supervision" by the government. In order to reveal the behavior strategy relationship and dynamic evolution mechanism among the online lending market entities under the industry self-regulatory mechanism, atrilateral evolutionary game model of behavior strategy including self-regulatory supervision platform, online loan platform and platform customer is constructed. The evolutionary path of the tripartite agent's behavior strategy and its joint action law are analyzed, and then the equilibrium state of model system evolution and the influence of key factors under different constraints are discussed in conjunction with numerical simulation. The findings show that the willingness of the online loan platform to operate in compliance will be strengthened with the increase of incentive level, image effects, customer churn, and industry crisis risks. If the online loan platform has a more complete operation mechanism, or a better reputation, or a larger customer scale, it will be easier to implement self-regulation based on the market approach. The penalties for violations, the benefits of image effects and the sensitivity of the platform’s customers’ regulatory strategies will directly affect the tendency of compliance operation of the online loan platform. Finally, governance measures such as increasing the punishment of illegal platforms, strengthening platform information disclosure and brand image construction, and guiding both borrowers and lenders to choose platforms rationally are put forward combined with the results of simulation analysis.
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    A Constraint Programming Approach for Solving the Discrete Time/cost Tradeoff Problem in Repetitive Projects considering Soft Logic
    ZHANG Li-hui, QI Jian-xun
    2022, 30 (10):  109-118.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0100
    Abstract ( 188 )   PDF (1734KB) ( 299 )   Save
    Repetitive projects such as multiple similar houses, high-rise buildings, highways, and pipeline, are characterized by a number of similar or identical units and a set of activities that need to be repeatedly executed from one unit to another. Logic relations exist between each activity in different units and they may be of “fixed” or “soft” character. Fixed logic means that there is only one work sequence between the same activities in different units, while soft logic indicates that more than one possibility is available when analyzing activity sequencing. With soft logic, the same activities in different units could be performed in parallel (all of them are executed concurrently), in sequence (one after the other), or part in parallel and part in sequence.
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    Environmental Labeling Strategy Selection of Green Supply Chain Under Cost Sharing Contract
    CAO Yu, HU Han-li, LI Qing-song
    2022, 30 (10):  119-129.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1026
    Abstract ( 342 )   PDF (1392KB) ( 513 )   Save
    Environmental labeling is an important way to help companies declare the green quality level of their products. The self-posting and certification environmental labeling strategies are considered, the environmental labeling strategies selection of a green supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer is studied, and further the impact of cost-sharing contracts on green supply chain decisions is analyzed. Research shows that when consumers’ green awareness or trust increases, the green effort level of manufacturers and retailers will increase, but the increase in consumer green awareness is not always beneficial to manufacturers. Under the certification label strategy, the manufacturer’s profit will decrease with the increase of consumers' green awareness. From the label selection, the manufacturer will always choose self-labeling strategies, especially under the manufacturer’s cost-sharing contract, the highest profit will be obtained, but the retailer’s profit under the certification label is higher. Comparing the efficiency of contracts, all cost-sharing contracts can increase the level of green efforts in the supply chain and promote the increase of the manufacturer’s profits and overall social benefits, but they are not necessarily beneficial to the retailer’s profits. Especially in the certification labeling strategy, the cost-sharing contract will be invalidated, and under the self-labeling strategy, the retailer’s cost-sharing contract can achieve coordination of the supply chain. From the perspective of total social welfare, only when consumers’ environmental awareness, trust, and certification cost are high, the social welfare under the self-labeling strategy will be higher than the certification label strategy, otherwise certificate label strategy will be better.
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    Online Shopping Platform Optimal Price Promotion Strategy: Price Discount or Cash Coupon?
    ZHANG Hua, LI Li, ZHU Xing-zhen, HE Xiang
    2022, 30 (10):  130-141.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0262
    Abstract ( 530 )   PDF (1143KB) ( 695 )   Save
    Platform price promotion has become an important issue in platform marketing. Different from the traditional mode in which merchants decide the price promotion, platform price promotion takes the platform as the decision maker of price promotion. In this paper, platform price discount model and cash coupon model are established, and platform optimal price promotion strategy is analyzed. Some findings are achieved. (1) Platform price promotion can only increase platform profits when the basic demand, consumer price sensitivity and commodity price meet certain conditions. (2) In the case that both price promotions can improve the platform’s profit, the platform’s transaction rate is higher and the commodity price is lower, so the platform’s profit of implementing cash coupon strategy is higher than that of price discount strategy; In other cases, the profit of price discount strategy implemented by the platform is higher than that of cash coupon strategy. (3) With lower transaction rates on the platform, consumers can get more discounts under the price discount strategy; Otherwise the cash coupon strategy will give the consumer more benefits. (4) Sellers’ advertising investment can increase the profits of promotion activities on the platform, but the price concessions on the platform are reduced, and the range of conditions for the platform to implement price promotion is reduced.
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    Pricing and Coordination of a Supply Chain with Fairness Concerns under Carbon Cap-and-Trade Mechanism
    ZOU Qing-ming, HU Li-qing, ZOU Ting-jun
    2022, 30 (10):  142-154.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0550
    Abstract ( 388 )   PDF (2062KB) ( 801 )   Save
    The fairness concerns of supply chain firms has been regarded as a vital role in developing and sustaining benign cooperation relationships between upstream and downstream in the supply chain. Confronted with consumers’ low-carbon preferences and the constraints of carbon emission regulations, supply chain firms often show a strong fairness concerns when determining operational decisions such as optimal pricing and emission reduction levels. Exploring how fairness concerns affect supply chain operational decisions under environmental protection regulations can provide countermeasures for supply chain cooperation. In a two-echelon supply chain composed of a single manufacturer and a single retailer, under the carbon cap-and-trade mechanism, the optimal operational decisions are studied such as pricing and carbon-emission reduction when the manufacturer and retailer are fairness concern, and the impact of fairness concern on the optimal pricing and carbon emission reduction and the expected profit is analyzed. The coordination performance of the revenue- sharing and cost-sharing contract also investigated for the supply chain. Finally, several numerical experiments are given to verify the main theoretical results. The results show that: (1) when both manufacturers and retailers are fairness concerns, the supply chain can achieve coordination if the parameters of revenue-sharing and cost-sharing contract satisfy some conditions. (2) The wholesale price is positively correlated with the manufacturer’s fairness concerns, and the retail price is positively correlated with the manufacturer’s and retailer’s fairness concern. If the manufacturer considers the retailer’s fairness concern, the change of the wholesale price depends on the carbon-emission reduction cost coefficient, and the carbon emission reduction rate is negatively correlated with the manufacturer’s and retailer’s fairness concern. If the manufacturer ignores the retailer’s fairness concern, the wholesale price is only affected by the manufacturer’s own fairness concern, and the carbon- emission reduction rate is negatively correlated with the manufacturer’s fairness concern and has nothing to do with the retailer’s fairness concern. (3) The profits of both sides will be negatively correlated with manufacturer’s fairness concern, and the retailer’s concerns about fairness will also have a negative impact on the manufacturer’s profits. The change of the retailer’s profits with his own fairness concern depends on whether the manufacturer considers retailer’s fairness concern, if manufacturer considered retailer’s fairness concern, both are positive correlation, otherwise both are negative correlation.
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    Stochastic Multi-mode Resource-constrained Project Scheduling
    XIE Fang, LI Hong-bo, BAI Qing-guo
    2022, 30 (10):  155-164.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1250
    Abstract ( 259 )   PDF (1065KB) ( 509 )   Save
    In project management, project scheduling is an important method to achieve optimal resource allocation. Projects are often faced with many uncertain factors. The baseline schedules obtained under the deterministic assumption can hardly be executed as planned. Additionally, in practice, projects tend to have the characteristic of multiple modes. The above situations pose a great challenge to the effectiveness of project scheduling. In view of this, the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem is studied under uncertain activity durations and it aims to construct effective dynamic scheduling policies.
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    Research on Operation Decision and Coordination Optimization of Modern Agricultural Supply Chain Considering Vertical Shareholding
    WANG Xu-ping, FAN Wen-ping, RUAN Jun-hu, SUN Zi-lai
    2022, 30 (10):  165-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1067
    Abstract ( 264 )   PDF (1327KB) ( 389 )   Save
    In recent years, China has introduced a number of measures to vigorously promote the development of digital intelligent agriculture. For example, in 2020, No.1 central document emphasizes the need to strengthen the construction of modern agricultural facilities and carry out the national digital rural pilot project. The digital agriculture development plan (2019-2025 years) also calls for the development of digital agriculture. In addition, some data show that the potential market size of China’s digital agriculture is expected to increase from 13.7 billion dollars in 2015 to 26.8 billion dollars in 2020. Under the dual guidance of national policies and market prospects, many industry giants, such as Alibaba, Jingdong, Country garden, Evergrande group, have laid out the “blue ocean” of agriculture. However, due to the fact that China’s digital agriculture is still in its infancy and the barriers to digital technology are high, the purchase costs and R&D (research and development) investments of relevant technologies and equipment remain high. In 2018, Jingdong Group invested 12.1 billion yuan in technology R&D; to fully realize artificial intelligence pig raising, Alibaba cloud invested hundreds of millions of yuan in targeted training and R&D of ET brain in 2018. The high costs of digitization are bound to reduce the investment enthusiasm of small and medium-sized farms, especially those with insufficient funds, which will affect the long-term development of agricultural digitization. Meanwhile, the contract consciousness of enterprises and farms is relatively weak, and the default rate of order agriculture is high, which also hinders the sustainable development of modern agricultural supply chain.
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    Modeling the Coordination Mechanisms of Cross-shipping Based on Cash Closed-loop Supply Chain
    QIU Hong, ZHU Nan, ZHANG Ting
    2022, 30 (10):  177-186.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0978
    Abstract ( 180 )   PDF (2852KB) ( 257 )   Save
    To encourage commercial banks behavioral changes that help lower the overall societal costs of cash processing and distribution by curtailing overuse of a free governmental service, the coordination mechanism of recirculation fee is proposed to motivate commercial banks (CBs) to reduce the cross-shipping and fulfill their fit-sorting obligations in a socially optimal manner. The influence of two types coordination mechanisms on the cross-shipping is studied. A nonlinear coordination mechanism is first proposed (NLRF) based on the recirculation fee with the linear characteristic (LRF) which is the current practice of foreign central bank, and the differences between them are analyzed in three aspects: the measurement standard, minimum quota and calculation method. To examine the efficacy of two mechanisms, the social optimum is then characterized using the Cash Closed-Loop Supply Chain (C-CLSP) framework, and the responses of commercial banks under LRF, NLRF and without mechanism are analyzed respectively by three decentralized optimization models of commercial banks. Numerical examples demonstrate that the CBs’ complex decision-making behaviors face the coordination mechanisms from various different aspects and the influence of different circulation parameters on the coordination effect. The results show that the LRF mechanism cannot guarantee a socially optimal response from CBs. NLRF mechanism, as a fundamentally different mechanism characterized non-linear, helps induce CBs to self-select the social optimum. Our mechanism incorporates a fairness adjustment that avoids penalizing CBs that recirculate their fair share of cash and rewards CBs that recirculate more than this amount.
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    Supply Chain Coordination in Vendor-Managed Inventory Systems with Variable Inventory Cost
    LUO Ling
    2022, 30 (10):  187-197.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0143
    Abstract ( 311 )   PDF (964KB) ( 334 )   Save
    In the peak season of market demand, the ordering quantity of goods often exceeds the limit of warehouse capacity. The decision-maker of supply chain should consider renting warehouse. The cost of renting warehouse is probably different from that of original warehouse. When the inventory cost changes with the order quantity, how to realize the supply chain coordination is interesting. Considering a supply chain composed of a single supplier and a single retailer, an EOQ model is built with variable inventory cost for exploring an optimal vender-managed-inventory (VMI) contract to get the supply chain coordination. In the supply chain, the retailer proposes a VMI protocol. When the stockout occurs, the supplier will pay the backorder penalty. The penalty includes fixed penalty and variable penalty. Fixed penalty is independent of the quantity of shortage and variable penalty is related to the quantity of shortage. The supplier has a reservation cost, and when its own cost is less than or equal to the reservation cost, the supplier will accept the agreement. The results show that the VMI system can achieve supply chain coordination when the inventory cost changes. It is proved that if and only if the supplier’s reservation cost of the VMI system is equal to the sum of the minimum supply chain total cost of the integrated system and the fixed shortage penalty, that is, the supplier wants to bear the sum of the minimum supply chain total cost of the integrated system and the fixed shortage penalty, the VMI system and the integrated system have the same replenishment decision and system performance. The results also show that the variable inventory cost affects the replenishment decisions and system performance, and then affects the design of VMI contracts. Finally, a numerical example and a sensitivity analysis verify the results. This study is not only suitable for VMI system coordination with infinite storage capacity and limited storage capacity when inventory cost is constant, but also suitable for VMI system coordination when inventory cost changes. This research enriches the relevant theories of VMI and supply chain, and provide useful guidance for the decisions of supplier and retailer.
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    A Two-stage DEA Efficiency Evaluation Approach Based on Closest Targets
    LI Feng, ZHU Ping, LIANG Liang, KOU Gang
    2022, 30 (10):  198-209.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1617
    Abstract ( 322 )   PDF (2264KB) ( 463 )   Save
    Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is one of the most important approaches for efficiency evaluation. The basic logic behind the DEA methodology is that a convex combination of a set of comparable and homogeneous decision-making units (DMUs) is calculated to construct an efficient frontier. Then the DMUs can be projected onto that frontier and each DMU is evaluated by calculating the distance to its projection. The traditional DEA theory is mainly based on farthest targets that have the longest distance to the efficient frontier, which would cause huge improvement difficulties and costs by maximizing inefficiencies. On the contrary, there are closest targets for projections, which are more easily attainable and can provide the most relevant solution to remove inefficiency. From this perspective, a new DEA approach is proposed for evaluating DMUs with two-stage structures based on closest targets, whereas previous studies on closest targets ignored DMUs’ internal production structures. To this end, a traditional range-adjusted measure (RAM) model is first used to calculate the relative efficiency for DMUs with two-stage structures, and it obtains some extremely efficient DMUs. Afterward, all linear combinations of extremely efficient DMUs are constructed, which also dominate the evaluated DMU. Then a new RAM model is developed, which calculates the relative efficiency considering the shortest distance to these linear combinations. The proposed approach can compute a two-stage efficiency for DMUs based on closest targets, and also indicate improvement targets for inefficient DMUs with the least efforts on output expansion and input reduction. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated with an empirical study of 32 Chinese listed banks, with each bank having a two-stage process of fund business and profit earning.
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    Research on the Pricing of New Transportation Services Based on TPCBoost Model——Take New York City for Example
    ZHAO Xue-feng, WU Wei-wei, WU De-lin, SHI Hui-ning, LIAN Ying, ZHAO De-cong
    2022, 30 (10):  210-223.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0635
    Abstract ( 238 )   PDF (1739KB) ( 314 )   Save
    Present studies of the pricing of new transportation services mainly focus on a single feature, and there is a lack of a overall pricing model considering different features, and the effects of the interaction among features on the pricing of new transportation services. Several CART trees are integrated and optimized to construct the TPCBoost model. Then the ride-hailing data of New York City from Google Cloud and Coursera,including the time, distance and number of passengers, are used to train and test the TPCBoost model. The TPCBoost model is also used to analyze the relationships between different features and their influences on pricing. The robustness and stability of the TPCBoost model are verified, and it is found that:(1) features nonlinearly affects pricing, short distance, short time, and few passengers make the price stable, but pricing is volatile under the conditions of long distances, long hours, and many passengers; (2) When a specific ride distance is combined with a specific ride time, a pricing sensitivity period occurs, and market competition heats up in the pricing sensitive period, and the specific ride time inhibits the price rise; (3) The number of riders does not directly affect pricing, but its combination with other features can indirectly influence pricing; (4) Ride distance positively affects the pricing, but it does not directly affect the pricing during the pricing sensitive period; (5) Daily ride time periodically affects pricing. In particular, there are several pricing transitions each day,when the peak pricing time pointsare generally more than the trough pricing time points. For China, online taxi-hailing service has its own features, including fierce competition, large market space, and intelligence. Therefore, according to the research results of this paper, it is shown that Chinese companies can lower their prices by introducing preferential measures when taking special trips, such as time or distance, to show their attraction to passengers.Since there exist pricing trough stage and pricing peak stage, and the peak stage of pricing presents fierce market competition, Chinese enterprises need to adjust pricing accurately and timely at the peak stage; the trough stage of pricing means market competition slows down, and thus Chinese enterprises can properly improve the pricing to obtain revenue profits. When the travel distance and travel time are combined, the new transportation service market in China enters the stage of fierce competition, and Chinese regulators need to monitor pricing fluctuations in the market in real time and prevent wide pricing fluctuations, which leads to the phenomenon that vicious competition destroys the market.The TPCBoost model developed in this paper is verified by the actual data to conform to the pricing law, and can provide a useful reference for the transportation decision-making of operating companies, regulatory departments and passengers.It also contributes to the new transportation services pricing literature by providing a tool with high accuracy and robustness, and by revealing the comprehensive effects of distance, time, and number of passengers.
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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Scarce Products’ Development Cost Sharing in a Dual-channel Supply Chain
    CHEN Jun-lin, WANG Shan
    2022, 30 (10):  224-235.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0523
    Abstract ( 246 )   PDF (1630KB) ( 348 )   Save
    The sharing of product upgrade costs by companies at the same level or upstream and downstream in the supply chain can reduce the company's innovation risks and increase the probability of successful product development, especially for scarce products. However, there is often the“free-riding” behavior in product development between companies, which affects their long-term cooperation. Therefore, how to encourage companies to choose joint investment is a problem that supply chain companies need to focus on. The capacity allocation strategy is studied that promotes manufacturers and retailers to choose joint investment in a dual-channel supply chain under the revenue-sharing cooperation mechanism. According to different profit matrices when manufacturers and retailers adopt different investment strategies, an evolutionary game model is established to compare the evolutionary stability strategies of the supply chain system when there is no cooperation mechanism and when the cooperation mechanism is introduced. It is shown that when there is no cooperation mechanism, the supply chain system will either stabilize on the strategy of one party’s investment and one party’s non-investment, or stabilize on the strategy of neither party’s investment; when the cooperation mechanism is introduced, the supply chain system will be stabilized on the strategy of mutual investment by both parties within a certain range of capacity allocation. Finally, the mathematical model is verified numerically through MATLAB, and the data of the calculation example meet the research assumptions. A revenue-sharing cooperation mechanism is proposed from the perspective of evolutionary game to improve the stability of long-term cooperation between enterprises and it helps expand the research on capacity allocation in the field of cost sharing.
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    Optimization Model of Cold Accumulated Multi-temperature Joint Pickup and Distribution
    MOU Jin-jin, CHEN Ju-wei, WANG Shu-yun
    2022, 30 (10):  236-246.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1604
    Abstract ( 247 )   PDF (968KB) ( 318 )   Save
    The distribution center is usually far away from the city center because of the limitation of its location, the land cost and so on, as well as the limited funds of the logistics enterprises or traffic congestion. To reduce the routing number and vehicle distance from distribution center, the multi-temperature joint pickup for suppliers and joint distribution for retailers with virtual linehaul-feeder depot vehicle routing problem within time window constraints(LFVRPTW) is studied. The optimization model is to minimize the total system cost, including vehicle dispatching cost, vehicle running cost,cooling cost,penalty cost for breaching time window,carbon tax cost, insulated box cost and less than one box cost. Assuming that in the system, one distribution center that uses large vehicles for pickup of the cold chain goods for suppliers, one virtual depot that uses medium vehicle to distribute cold chain goods for a certain customer and to provide linehaul-feeder for small vehicles to reload cold chain goods for retailers, other small vehicles distribute goods directly from distribution center to retailers. All the pickup and delivery adopts cold accumulation mode and the virtual linehaul-feeder depot is selected according to lowest cost. Then, an improved ant colony system algorithm is designed to solve the model, which includes pheromone concentration, initial solution by greedy strategy, path selection and hybrid pheromone updating, and the effectiveness of the model is verified by a simulation example of 20 retail stores and 6 seafood suppliers. It is found that (1) the number of lines in the LFVRPTW is lower than that of the VRPTW; (2) less restricted time window constraints can benefit to LFVRPTW; (3) the total cost of the LFVRPTW is lower than that of VRPTW; and (4) the cold accumulated multi-temperature joint pickup and distribution with virtual depot is conducive to the construction of both economical and environmental cold chain system.
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    Research on the Non-Uniqueness of Solutions of the Mean Difference GM(1,1) Model Based on Interval Grey Interaction
    ZENG Bo, GOU Xiao-yi, ZHANG Zhi-wei
    2022, 30 (10):  247-255.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0026
    Abstract ( 203 )   PDF (1148KB) ( 368 )   Save
    The non-uniqueness principle of grey system theory means that the solution of grey model is not unique under the condition of incomplete information. GM(1,1) is a grey prediction model with incomplete structural information, but its simulation and prediction results obviously do not meet that principle. To this end, in view of the network model of GM(1,1), the connotation of grey action quantity of GM(1,1) is systematically analyzed, and the interval grey number form of grey action quantity under uncertainty of influencing factors is restored. On this basis, a new mean difference GM(1,1) model is constructed. The new model has a better model structure and is fully compatible with the traditional mean difference GM(1,1). Then the new GM(1,1) model is employed to forecast the electricity energy consumption in China, showing that the reasonableness of the new model is superior. Hence, the grey attribute of the model is restored in this research, which is of positive significance to enrich the theoretical framework and improve the structure system of grey prediction model.
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    Research on the Competition and Coordination of Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Driven by Innovation ——Based on Government Competition Policy
    HU Jun, WU Jun-min, WU Jie, SHENG Yong-xiang, SHI Qin-fen
    2022, 30 (10):  256-264.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1988
    Abstract ( 251 )   PDF (1172KB) ( 404 )   Save
    Energy is an important foundation of national economic and social development. How to realize green and sustainable development of energy is a hot topic in the world. China’s demand for high-purity silicon wafers mainly relies on imports, and the photovoltaic systems manufactured are mostly exported due to the impact of domestic environment. However, the high import price and low export price make China become a processor with low added value of photovoltaic system. At the same time, due to the impact of the “531” new policy on China’s photovoltaic industry, the competition among domestic photovoltaic manufacturers is more fierce. It has seriously restricted the healthy development of photovoltaic industry in China. Therefore, on the basis of relevant research, the government competition policy and technological innovation variables are introduced into the model. Different from the previous research, the government competition award is introduced as the interpretation of the government competition policy, and the level of technological innovation effort is introduced as the manufacturer’s efforts to achieve technological innovation. In addition, the Government Competition Award and technological innovation are introduced. The new level of effort is linked to the optimal profit of manufacturers at all levels under different government competition awards and different levels of technological innovation efforts. The two-level model of silicon manufacturer and photovoltaic system manufacturer in polysilicon supply chain is considered a game model about wholesale price of silicon wafer and sales volume of photovoltaic system is established, the optimal profit function of manufacturers at all levels is obtained, and through the 2019 China Photovoltaic Industry Development Research Report, photovoltaic and solar energy industry analysis report and other internal reports related data and forecast data empirical study the impact of competition policy and technological innovation factors on the optimal and overall supply chain profits of manufacturers at all levels is analyzed under the two situations of competition and coordination. The results show that: (1) the government competition policy is conducive to the increase of manufacturers’ profits; (2) the increase of technological innovation efforts can quickly increase the profits of manufacturers; (3) compared with the competition situation, the profits of manufacturers and the total profits of the whole supply chain are higher under the coordination situation. This conclusion is of practical significance to analyze how to make photovoltaic policy and how to deal with the relationship between the upstream and downstream of polysilicon supply chain under the double constraints of upstream polysilicon manufacturers and the actual situation of China’s market, so as to optimize the profits of the whole supply chain manufacturers.
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    Design Change Risk Propagation for Complex Product Development Projects Considering Organizational Failure and Cooperation
    LI Rui-meng, YANG Nai-ding, LIU Hui, ZHANG Yan-lu
    2022, 30 (10):  265-276.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1242
    Abstract ( 185 )   PDF (3419KB) ( 222 )   Save
    Influenced by internal and external risk factors such as customer demand uncertainty, technological change, scheme error, a small number of components are prone to design change risk events. In the context of complex inter-component dependency and concurrent development, the design change of one or a few components may trigger the potential design change risk of other dependent components, resulting in design change risk propagation. The propagation of design change risk brings great uncertainty to complex product development (CPD), which may lead to serious project delay, budget overrun, and low quality. Complex products contain a large number of components, which cannot be independently developed by a single organization. Therefore, CPD projects mainly adopt the form of multi-organizational collaboration network. Although networked form has the advantages of reducing the cost of development and realizing complementary resources, it further increases the complexity of design change risk management in the face of design change propagation, which poses a great challenge to the CPD projects. Therefore, it is of great significance to consider the role of organizations and reveal the propagation law of design change risk under the influences of organizations.
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    Channel Conflicts and Interfirm Collaboration: Roles of Third-party Interventions
    LU Ting-yu, ZHUANG Gui-jun
    2022, 30 (10):  277-286.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.0101
    Abstract ( 240 )   PDF (1123KB) ( 351 )   Save
    Scholars have paid remarkable attention to channel conflicts. One of the related theories is the social balance theory. It acknowledges that in the triangular relationship formed by the three individuals, they will try to avoid the imbalance of the relationship among them and balance it by taking action. Recently, researchers began to explore the possible impact of third-party interventions on channel conflicts. They hold that the third-party may mitigate the two parties’ negative hostility to the conflict and help them resolve the problem. Inspired by prior studies and taking interfirm collaborative activities as the research setting, the impact of channel conflicts on interfirm collaboration and the moderating effects of third-party interventions are proposed and tested.
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