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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 24-37.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1033

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Research on the Model of Inter-bank Credit Risk Contagion by Fusing CDS Networks

CHEN Ting-qiang1,2, ZHOU Wen-jing1, TONG Mao-di1, LIU Hai-fei3   

  1. 1. School of Economic and Management,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China;
    2. Research Center of Big Data Decision and Social Performance Evaluation, Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China;
    3. School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2019-07-13 Revised:2019-12-04 Online:2020-06-20 Published:2020-06-29

Abstract: Through payment, settlement, bill, loan and other businesses, banks have established a connected inter-bank market, which amplifies the contagion effect and damage degree of credit risk. However, Credit Default Swap (CDS) is an effective way to mitigate the spillover effect of inter-bank credit risk. In this article, with the help of complex network theory, the inter-bank credit risk contagion effect and the credit risk inhibition effect of CDS on Banks are considered, and a two-layer network model of inter-bank credit risk contagion that integrates CDS network is constructed. The results show that: (1) the credit risk contagion threshold of the bank networkλB*presents monotonically increasing characteristics with the increase of CDS network inhibition rateλC. Moreover, compared with homogeneous network structure, the contagion threshold of bank networkλB*credit risk under heterogeneous network structure is relatively small. (2) The credit risk inhibition threshold of the CDS networkλC*presents a monotonically increasing feature with the increase of the contagion rate of the bank networkλB. Moreover, the credit risk suppression threshold of CDS networksλC*with homogeneous network structure is higher than that of CDS networks with heterogeneous network structure. (3) With the increase of CDS inhibition rateλC, the final bankruptcy scale of the bank networkRB(∞)presents a monotonic decreasing characteristic; withthe increase of bank infection rateλB, it presents a monotonic increasing characteristic. Moreover, the scale of bank bankruptcyRB(∞)under heterogeneous network structure is larger than that under homogeneous network structure. (4) With the increase of bank contagion rateλB, the bankruptcy scale of CDS network presents a monotonically increasing feature. Moreover, the bankruptcy scale of CDS networkRC(∞)under homogeneous network structure is larger than that under heterogeneous network structure.The model and research results designed in this paper will provide new ideas for the application of two-layer network in the study of Banks and CDS counterparty credit risk contagion.

Key words: credit default swap, contagion of credit risk, restraining effect, contagion effect, the network structure

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