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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    20 June 2020, Volume 28 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Dynamic Evolution and Market Robustness of Chinese Stock Market in the Past 10 Years of the Financial Crisis: An Empirical Research Based on Complex Network Perspective
    XIE Chi, HU Xue-jing, WANG Gang-jin
    2020, 28 (6):  1-12.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.001
    Abstract ( 635 )   PDF (3773KB) ( 491 )   Save
    The minimum spanning tree(MST) algorithm of complex network theory is combined with rolling windows analysis. In the context of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the shock of Chinese Stock Market in 2015, the daily closing prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange(SSE) A-share market from 2003 to 2017 are chosen as the empirical data to construct the dynamic correlation network of China's stock market. From the perspectives of network node removal and edge-to-edge variation, the dynamic evolution and market robustness of Chinese Stock Market during different time periods are discussed. The relevant data is derived from the Wind. The results show that the whole network structure is loose before and after the financial crisis, while it becomes very compact during the financial crisis and stock market turmoil, and the degree distribution and influence-strength distribution of nodes are more concentrated. This means that during the financial crisis and the stock market turmoil, the influence of Systemically Important Financial Institutions will continue to improve and the changes in their stock prices will have a more significant impact on other companies. Therefore, from the perspective of policy formulation and supervision, relevant departments can focus on injecting liquidity into such companies during periods of financial instability, and then they will drive the trend of the entire market and make policy implementation more rapid and effective; different types of events have different effects on the connectivity and robustness of the stock market network. Regional events (stock market turmoil) have a greater impact on the market than global events (financial crisis); in the short-term, the financial crisis and the stock market turmoil have not caused much impact on the robustness of the entire network edge. Throughout the study period, the survival rate of the network has remained at a high level. But as the step size increases, the survival rate of the network drops sharply, especially if the step size is greater than three weeks (15 trading days), which means that the long-term robustness of the overall stock market network-related structure is declining. This paper can help to deeply investigate the structure characteristics and market status of Chinese Stock Market. At the same time, it has practical guiding significance for risk management of policy supervision and adjustment of portfolio strategy by market participants. In addition, the research can also be used to quantitatively measure the dynamic topology structure and robustness of other network-based financial systems.
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    The Impact of Countercyclical Contingent Capital on Investment and Financing Decision under Asymmetric Information
    ZHAO Zhi-ming, WANG Yao, SHU Jian-ping
    2020, 28 (6):  13-23.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1455
    Abstract ( 450 )   PDF (2380KB) ( 171 )   Save
    Countercyclical contingent capital (CCC) is a financial innovation product proposed and gradually implemented in 2009 in response to the financial crisis. It is widely used in Asian and European countries, and theoretical research on this product is also in the ascendant. At the same time, it is noticed that domestic issuers are mostly small and medium-sized Banks with inadequate information disclosure and supervision, which leads to the weak applicability of existing research results on CCC to domestic institutions. Thus, it is of theoretical and practical significance to introduce information asymmetry into countercyclical contingent capital. So in order to gain an insight into the impact of countercyclical contingent capital on investment and financing decision under asymmetric information, a dynamic game model of corporate investment and financing decisions with CCC is developed by using real options signaling model under asymmetric information. Firstly, the risk-neutral pricing of banks’ securities are calculated under full information benchmark in which all outside investors have full information about the banks’ investment projects. In addition, to illustrate the characteristics of CCC, straight bonds for comparison are introduced. In this paper, the difference between CCC and straight bonds is that once the investment threshold is lower than the regulatory requirements, CCC will convert into the equity of β times (i.e. conversion rate). Before analyzing the effects of asymmetric information on equilibrium investment strategies, it starts by proving single-crossing condition under which banks with low operating cost send signals through the investment threshold is feasible. Then, the corresponding investment threshold and the least cost separating equilibrium is given by the incentive compatibility constraint. Using this result, it is show that asymmetric information leads to adverse selection cost and abnormal return for low-cost banks. Finally, the general rules of the influence mechanisms of each risk factor are obtained by simulation. The simulation results show that CCC induces banks to implement the project earlier than straight bonds, reduces investment distortions caused by asymmetric information, decreases the cost of adverse selection, lower the fluctuation degree of public belief about banks’ quality. More importantly, CCC can eliminate the cost of adverse selection by designing an appropriate conversion rate. At the same time, the results indicate that low-cost banks are more inclined to issue CCC.
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    Research on the Model of Inter-bank Credit Risk Contagion by Fusing CDS Networks
    CHEN Ting-qiang, ZHOU Wen-jing, TONG Mao-di, LIU Hai-fei
    2020, 28 (6):  24-37.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1033
    Abstract ( 417 )   PDF (2750KB) ( 144 )   Save
    Through payment, settlement, bill, loan and other businesses, banks have established a connected inter-bank market, which amplifies the contagion effect and damage degree of credit risk. However, Credit Default Swap (CDS) is an effective way to mitigate the spillover effect of inter-bank credit risk. In this article, with the help of complex network theory, the inter-bank credit risk contagion effect and the credit risk inhibition effect of CDS on Banks are considered, and a two-layer network model of inter-bank credit risk contagion that integrates CDS network is constructed. The results show that: (1) the credit risk contagion threshold of the bank networkλB*presents monotonically increasing characteristics with the increase of CDS network inhibition rateλC. Moreover, compared with homogeneous network structure, the contagion threshold of bank networkλB*credit risk under heterogeneous network structure is relatively small. (2) The credit risk inhibition threshold of the CDS networkλC*presents a monotonically increasing feature with the increase of the contagion rate of the bank networkλB. Moreover, the credit risk suppression threshold of CDS networksλC*with homogeneous network structure is higher than that of CDS networks with heterogeneous network structure. (3) With the increase of CDS inhibition rateλC, the final bankruptcy scale of the bank networkRB(∞)presents a monotonic decreasing characteristic; withthe increase of bank infection rateλB, it presents a monotonic increasing characteristic. Moreover, the scale of bank bankruptcyRB(∞)under heterogeneous network structure is larger than that under homogeneous network structure. (4) With the increase of bank contagion rateλB, the bankruptcy scale of CDS network presents a monotonically increasing feature. Moreover, the bankruptcy scale of CDS networkRC(∞)under homogeneous network structure is larger than that under heterogeneous network structure.The model and research results designed in this paper will provide new ideas for the application of two-layer network in the study of Banks and CDS counterparty credit risk contagion.
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    Small Enterprise Facility Rating Based on the Maximum Discrimination of Indicator System
    YU Shan-li, CHI Guo-tai, JIANG Xin
    2020, 28 (6):  38-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.004
    Abstract ( 440 )   PDF (3710KB) ( 160 )   Save
    Small enterprises are an important part of the national economy. However, because of their imperfect credit information and irregular management, it is difficult to grade their credit. Banks are limited by the control of credit risk and reluctant to lend or even not to lend to small enterprises, which leads to difficulties in financing and restricts the development of small enterprises. Therefore, it is very important to carry out research on credit rating of small enterprises to help alleviate the financing difficulties.Facility rating aims to estimate the default probability of a debt. It seems to be a good choice to build a rating indicator system according to discriminatory power of individual indicators, but it is not so. Because single indicator with strong discriminatory power cannot guarantee indicator system that they compose has strong discriminatory power, too.Brier score is combined with step-by-step backward elimination algorithm, and selected indicator system with strong discriminatory power between two indicator systems including n and n-1 indicators according to that the higher the scores Si of non-default customers, the larger the distance between Si and non-default state (yi=0) and the lower the scores Si of default customers, the larger the distance between Si and default state (yi=1), which means b value of scores will be bigger and the discriminatory power of the indicator system will be strong. What’s more, by comparing the b value of the indicator system composed of the indicator with strong discrimination with the b value of the indicator system established in this paper, it is proved that the indicator system whose indicator with strong discrimination may not have the strong discrimination, and when constructing the credit rating indicator system, we should pay more attention to the overall default discrimination of the indicator system, rather than the default discrimination of single indicator.Using the 3 045 small enterprises from a Chinese bank as empirical sample, it is shown that although the single indicator has the maximum discriminatory ability, the indicator system they compose may not have the most significant ability to discriminate default risk. And non-financial indicators play a more important role in the credit rating of small enterprises.The results of this study can be directly applied to credit rating, loan pricing and guarantee decision-making of small enterprises. Research methods and ideas can be extended to the credit rating of large and medium-sized enterprises, individuals and other objects.
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    Private Benefits of Control and Optimal Equity Structure under Time-inconsistent Preferences
    GAN Liu, YANG Bo
    2020, 28 (6):  51-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.005
    Abstract ( 368 )   PDF (1953KB) ( 127 )   Save
    After sorting out a large number of literatures. It is found that: 1) in theory, most of the literatures discuss the intrinsic mechanism of controlling shareholder's expropriation and how to strengthen corporate governance to restrain it. Also,there still many researchers examine the impact of the opportunistic behavior of the controlling shareholder on investment and financing decisions.For instance, Morellec and Wang (2004) have begun the task of incorporating imperfect investor protection into the real options model and examine the impact of opportunistic behavior by the insider of the company on corporate investment decisions. 2) however, researchers all follow the hypothesis of coincidence of individual time preference in frame of the neoclassical financial theory and ignore the most significant factor ---time-inconsistent Preferences---which can match the reality very well since the individual's preferences for future periods are completely different. Furthermore, the decision makers’ time preference inconsistency has a significant impact on enterprise decision-making. If simply the consistency preference were assumed, it is dangerous for it is probably to get a wrong conclusion concerning when will invest and what the optimal scale of investment for company or controlling shareholders. Therefore, in order to be more in line with the reality, this research is on the basis of 1) and 2) to explore the intrinsic mechanism of control shareholder's expropriation to corporate decision-making under the premise of inconsistent preference.In this research, based on a continuous-time model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting, an analytically tractable model is provided in which the controlling shareholder can divert part of the firm’s cash flow as private benefits at the expense of outside shareholders. The theory assumes that controlling shareholder maximizes the present value of his future cash flow, subject to constraints imposed by outside shareholders property rights to the firm’s assets. The value of the controlling shareholder and is given the algebraic equations of the investment threshold, investment quantity and abandon level are given by the method of dynamic programming and equilibrium pricing. It is found that the control shareholders having time-inconsistent preferences will not hold all equity, the optimal equity ratio is between 20% and 30% in most cases, and mature control shareholders hold lower optimal equity ratios than naive control shareholders. Compared with the optimal case without agency conflict, controlling shareholders with time-inconsistent preferences show delayed investment, but the scale of investment increases first and then decreases as the degree of inconsistency increases. At last, the analysis of optimal equity holding by the controlling shareholder and investor protection parameter show that consideration of time-inconsistent preferences of controlling shareholders can produce a fresh perspective for corporate governance. The distorted behavior mechanism of controlling shareholders and the optimal share structure ratio under time-inconsistent preference are of great significance to analyze the influence of investor protection on controlling shareholders' investment decision-making, and provide help for corporate governance.
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    Government Economic Commitment Decision-making under Difference Scenarios of Credit Environment and Revenue Type in PPP Projects
    LIU Xiao-feng, WANG Xue-rong, WU Xiao-ling
    2020, 28 (6):  63-72.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.006
    Abstract ( 361 )   PDF (1506KB) ( 130 )   Save
    The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of insufficient or excessive government economic commitment existing in Chinese PPP projects. First, four scenarios are constructed to describe differences between project types and credit environment. Secondary, a government economic commitment decision-making model is developed by combining the optimization decision with the real option theory. Then, besides analyzing the conditions and boundaries of the model solution, a computer solution algorithm is provided with no analytical solution based on sequential unconstrained minimization technique. Finally, the decision-making rules of the sewage treatment project in W city are explored by numerical simulation analysis method. The results show that scenario difference affects government's economic commitment decision, the government’s economic commitment will add the value of the project, but higher economic commitment does not necessarily lead to higher commitment costs. Government should give lower economic commitments for projects with greater yield fluctuations, but give higher economic commitments with tighter credit, and vice versa. The government can reduce its economic commitments by shifting income distribution rights or increasing capital investment. The influence rules of credit environment and type difference on economic commitment decision-making are revealed, which expands the research on government economic commitment decision-making. It is helpful for clarifying the decision-making cost and consequences of the government economic commitment, controlling project financial risks, and optimizing the economic commitment decision-making of Chinese PPP projects
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    Equilibrium Strategies of Carbon Reduction Technology Adoption in Competitive Supply Chains
    WANG Shan-shan, ZHANG Li-hao, FAN Ti-jun
    2020, 28 (6):  73-82.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.007
    Abstract ( 542 )   PDF (1461KB) ( 578 )   Save
    Research source of the problem: Global warming has become a great concern of the international community, and governments have taken measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Most of economists put forward that carbon tax is an effective method to reduce carbon emission, which will significantly affect the manufacturer's production-related decision-makings. Thus, to maximize profitability, it's particularly important for enterprises to choose an optimal strategy.Description of the problem: The decision-making of carbon reduction technology (CRT) adoption is considered in two competitive supply chains, each consisting of one manufacturer selling a homogeneous product to one exclusive retailer. The manufacturer needs to make the decision of CRT by comparing profits in different situations and considering the strategy of competitors. The functionC(ei)=kei2/2 is used to describe the carbon emission reduction cost. Given that the manufacturer decides on wholesale price w and carbon emission reduction rate e, the retailers compete under Nash game and decide on ordering quantity q.Methods model of research: There is a two-stage Stackelberg game where the manufacturer is the leader and the retailer is the follower. Firstly, manufacturer decides the adoption carbon and wholesale price. Then retailer decides its optimal retail price according to the manufacturer's decision. For the all strategies and situations, the players’ optimal decision-variables, revenues and the equilibrium strategies of CRT adoption in competitive supply chains are derived.Problem-solving ideas: Four possible CRT adoption structures are created: Scenarios NN (no CRT adoption), AN (only supply chain 1 adopts CRT), NA (only supply chain 2 adopts CRT) and AA (both adopt CRT). By comparing with profits of different situations, then the manufacturer will decide whether adopts CRT. And based on strategy of the manufacturer, the rival manufacturer will make the optimal strategy to achieve win-win.Research results: It is found that when the carbon tax is low, Scenario AA is the equilibrium strategy for the supply chains. When the carbon tax is moderate, the high unit production cost supply chain forgoes CRT while the other chain adopts CRT to enhance his competitive power. When the carbon tax is high, Scenario NN is the equilibrium strategy. Furthermore, the government could increase carbon tax with weak competition supply chains, while choose abatement of carbon tax to make the supply chains to adopt CRT in a fiercely competitive market.The introduction of case data: The data in the article are referenced with former related papers in a portion. Thus, the results of numerical analysis in this paper can reflect the reality better.Contributions: This paper focuses on not only the carbon tax and carbon emission reduction technology, but also the chain to chain competition. In addition, the research ideas of this paper can provide reference for the related paper about competitive supply chains on carbon tax.
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    The Retailer’s Decision Problem Considering Heterogeneous Strategic Consumers’ Non-defective Returns
    YUAN Yi-chao, SHI Kui-ran
    2020, 28 (6):  83-93.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.008
    Abstract ( 521 )   PDF (1943KB) ( 387 )   Save
    The markdown pricing mechanism is usually used in the fashion industry and some other industries with short-lived products. Experienced consumers may choose to buy the products at a discounted price. This strategic behavior increases the uncertainty of demand. In the meanwhile, product durabilityis among the most important factors for retailers to consider, which affects the intertemporal choice of consumers. With non-defective returns being common, creating a good return experience is treated by some retailers as an effective way to compete in consumer service, such as money-back guarantee, which allows consumers to return unsatisfactory products for a full refund. Money-back guarantee may enhance consumers’ purchase intentions and ultimately willingness to pay, but whether money-back guarantee can reduce consumer strategic behavior needs to be studied. Two kinds of uncertainty are considered: the uncertainty of product utility (consumers get the utility only when they buy products), as well as the uncertainty of availability (consumers who choose to wait may face the risk of out of stock). Behavioral models with rational expectations (RE) equilibrium are presented to describe the behavior of strategic consumers, which is widely used in related research. First, the benchmark without money-back guarantee is established and the retailer’s reference pricing range and optimal ordering decisions are obtained, and the influence of durability on the retail price is analyzed.Then the situation is analyzed that retailerprovidesmoney-back guarantee in the first stage, some new conclusions are reached. It is demonstrated that: The weaker the durability of the product, the higher the price that the retailer can set.The more consumers ofhigh type, the higher the retailer's pricing. The lower the discount rate of the product, the more consumers will buy in the second stage.In the case with money-back guarantee, the lower the cost of consumer's return, the higher the retailer's pricing.In the two modes, the product pricing is negatively related to its durability.When the product is very fashionable, it is not allowed to return, which is more advantageous. With the improvement of product durability, the advantage of allowing return is gradually obvious, and the lower the return cost is, the stronger the advantage of allowing return is.Furthermore the profits under the two cases are compared, when ordering the equal quantity,the behavior of strategic consumers will reduce the retailer's expected profit in some circumstances. In the face of the myopic consumers or strategic consumers, money-back guarantee can improve the retailer's profit,and can alleviate the negative impact of strategic consumers.The behavior of strategic consumers is described reasonably, considering the influence of product durability parameters, the widely existing consumer return behavior and the retailer's different subsidy policies,trying to provide guidance for the retailer’s pricing and ordering decisions on the basis of complex consumer behavior.
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    Remanufacturing Licensing Impacts on Pricing Strategies in Segmented Market
    LI Wei, ZHANG Han-jiang, YANG Liu
    2020, 28 (6):  94-103.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.009
    Abstract ( 410 )   PDF (1559KB) ( 140 )   Save
    In the context of more original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) authorizes third-party remanufacturers (TPRs) remanufacturing, the remanufacturing licensing impacts on pricing strategies in segmented market is studied. According to the remanufacturer has two pricing strategies which are a high pricing strategy for green consumers and a low pricing strategy for all consumers, a Stackelberg game which is consists of a original manufacturer and a third-party remanufacturer based on recovery constraint are established, solving the optimal decisions under the two kind of pricing strategy. It shows that there is a value interval of remanufacturing license fees. When the remanufacturing license fee is in different intervals, the original manufacturer will force the manufacturer to decide different pricing strategies through the leader position in the closed loop supply chain. Finally, the value interval of remanufacturing licensing fee and the pricing strategy and profit of closed loop supply chain with different license fees are verified by numerical analysis. It is found that: Regardless of the ratio of green consumers, OEM's profits are not the highest when the remanufacturing licensing fee is too high or too low. In addition, for TPR remanufacturing pricing strategy, OEM is more likely to force remanufacturing to choose a pricing strategy with high price and unconstrained output when the remanufacturing licensing fee is higher. In summary, the research results will be helpful to improve the theory of closed-loop supply chain, and have some enlightenment on the pricing of OEM authorizes TPR remanufacturing.
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    Pricing Strategy for Dual Channel Retailer and Traditional Retailer
    SUN Hong-xia, LI Xiao-fang, ZHOU zhen
    2020, 28 (6):  104-111.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.010
    Abstract ( 693 )   PDF (1588KB) ( 288 )   Save
    There is price competition between dual-channel retailers and traditional retailers. It is important to decide optiamal price for dual-channel retailers and traditional retailers. Under this background, the pricing decisions of a system with a manufacturer and two competitive retailers, one of the retailers only operates tradition channel and the other operates dual-channel are studied. Firstly, a Stackelberg structure is assumed between the two retailers, for two different modes that dual-channel retailer and traditional retailer act as a leader, two pricing decision models are constructed respectively, futhermore the optiaml price strategies are obtained. Secondly, the retailers' pricing strategies are analyzed under specific circumstances. Finally, numerical examples are provided to analyze the effect of the parameters on the optimal results. According to comparative analysis and numerical analysis, it is found that the total profit of a retailer who acts as a leader is larger than that who acts as a follower. The total profit of the supplier is larger when traditional channel retailer acts as a leader. When the mareket demand of traditional retaler is the same as the dual-channel retaliers' online and offline market demand, the optimal price of traditional retailers acts as a leader is larger than that who acts as a follower. The optimal wholesale prices of the supplier are equal. The conclusion of this study can help to reasonable decision on how to choose the supply chain mode and pricing strategy for manufacturing and retail enterprises.
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    Decision Making of Double Channel Closed Loop Supply Chain Considering Cross-channel Returns
    PAN Wen-jun, MIAO Lin
    2020, 28 (6):  112-122.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.011
    Abstract ( 468 )   PDF (2150KB) ( 413 )   Save
    In the double channel supply chain, there are manufacturers' direct sales channels in online stores and retailers' channels in physical stores. The consumer will return the goods that are not satisfied with the purchase. Because the products purchased by the online store lack the on-site experience, the return rate is high, but the return of the online channel is more complex than the return of the offline channel, which will affect the consumer shopping experience. Therefore, a closed-loop supply chain structure is constructed based on a single manufacturer's online store and a single retailer's physical offline store, and three return channels including cross-channel return are designed. Considering the impact of cross-channel return rate and consumer preference in the closed-loop supply chain, differential pricing is made. Two kinds of centralized decision-making (differential pricing strategy and unified pricing strategy) and three kinds of decentralized decision-making (manufacturer-dominated Stackelberg game, retailer-dominated Stackelberg game and Nash equilibrium game) are adopted to analyze the pricing decision and profit distribution of closed-loop system, and the conclusions are verified by numerical examples. The result shows that cross-channel return rate and consumer channel preference have direct impact on pricing strategies and profit allocation of closed loop supply chain. Under centralized decision-making, the price competition in two different channels is relatively weak, so the channel preference of consumers has little influence on the pricing decision of the two channels. In decentralized decision-making, the optimal price of two competitive channels is greatly influenced by the preference of customers for the channel. This paper can enrich and perfect the relevant theories of double channel supply chain and cross-channel returns, and provide series of useful guidance for the decisions of manufacturers and retailers.
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    The Impact of Consumer Returns on the Promotion Strategies and Contract Design of Online Retailer
    JIN Liang, WU Ying-jia, ZHAO Xin-jie
    2020, 28 (6):  123-136.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.012
    Abstract ( 436 )   PDF (1830KB) ( 183 )   Save
    The Internet has made online shopping a global daily phenomenon. To stay competitive, many click-and-mortar retailers have intensified their online promotions, which have become a core marketing tactic for businesses without physical stores. In 2017, U.S. online retail sales surpassed MYM370 billion, while that of Chinese websites reached approximately RMB 7 trillion. Customers, however, cannot touch or feel a product before they purchase online. Indeed, product returns in Internet retailing have been shown to be, on average, as high as 22% of sales. This leads to much higher rates of customer returns in the online channel, which in turn leads to significant costs to retailers. In this paper, it is considered that the online retailer offers a money-back guarantee, which allows customers to return product that do not meet their expectations to the retailer for a full refund. Two benchmark models of a one-manufacturer-one-online retailer supply chain are established with asymmetric information and full information, respectively.The main work in this paper includes four parts. At first, optimal contracts are proposed and the optimal sales promotion strategies and contract design under full information and asymmetric information are analyzed, respectively. Second, on this basis, the effects of the product returns on the equilibriums are analyzed, and consequently the optimal pricing, promotion and contract design of supply chain members under different types of promotion cost are compared. Third, the optimal decisions of both the manufacturer and online retailer, and the changing of consumer surplus under full and asymmetric information are compared. And the effect of different types of promotion cost and asymmetric information on willingness to share information and negotiation behaviors is presented. Finally, to address the value of money-back guarantee, the optimal decisions of both the manufacturer and online retailer, and the changing of profit of supply chain members and consumer surplus under before and after offers a money-back guarantee are compared.The results show that, the contracting scheme, composed of a wholesale price and a fixed payment, can coordinate the supply chain perfectly under symmetric information. By solving the optimization problem, the optimal pricing, promotion and contract design for supply chain members are presented under asymmetric information, respectively. Further, it is found that the manufacture could optimize the contract under asymmetric information by balancing the trade-off between the loss of the supply chain's profit and the information rent. And the online retailer may have an incentive to reveal the private information voluntarily and share the supply chain's profit with manufacture under certain condition. The money-back guarantees strategy make a loss of the manufacturer's expected profit, but may not decrease the online retailer's expected profit and the consumer surplus.In summary, the value of money-back guarantees under asymmetric information is investigated. Moreover, the contracting mechanisms are used to coordinating the online retail supply chain under asymmetric information, which offers a practical and a theoretical guidance to improve the value of online retail supply chain.
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    Online Tourism Supply Chain Network Equilibrium Model with the Transaction Risk Investment
    GUO Jie
    2020, 28 (6):  137-145.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.013
    Abstract ( 390 )   PDF (1273KB) ( 91 )   Save
    Online tourism supply chain is a typical super network. In this paper, an online tourism supply chain network equilibrium model is developed with three layers’ network structure of suppliers, platforms and demand markets, which compete each other no cooperatively to maximize their expected profits by determining their optimal product transactions. The consumers at the tourism demand markets reflect their preferences through the demand price functions, which depend on the tourism product demands and on the average level of the risk in the tourism network. It is demonstrated that Nash equilibrium conditions can be formulated as a variational inequality problem and describe the optimal economic behavior of the partners, and analyses the impact of the risk control investment on the risk level, expected profit of platform enterprises and the whole tourism supply chain. The modified projection algorithm is applied to compute solutions to a spectrum of numerical examples. The research outcome includes as following:Firstly, In case of the same risk control investment, the product transaction quantity and price between platform and market are almost the same, which verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model. Secondly, while the increase of risk control investment the transaction risk of the platform decreases, as well as the transaction security level and transaction volume of the supply chain network increase, but the expected profit of the platform decreases. Finally the consumer profit benefits from the more platform involvement, but the free rider behavior of some of the platforms will lead to increase the overall supply chain transaction risk level.
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    Online Interpersonal Group-buying Mechanism Considering Consumer Segmentation
    HU Feng-ying, ZHOU Zheng-long, LU Xin-yuan, PU Xu-jin
    2020, 28 (6):  146-157.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.014
    Abstract ( 454 )   PDF (1315KB) ( 176 )   Save
    Based on the innovative marketing mode with two sale prices, over the last two years, online interpersonal group buying mode have rapidly become popular among many sellers and consumers in China. However, in relevant literature, there aren’t the theoretical analysis relating to the interpersonal group-buying mechanism or comparative studies of interpersonal group buying and traditional selling (such as uniform-pricing trading) have been found. In order to fill this research gap, the uniform-pricing trading is added for comparison in order to explore differences between interpersonal group buying and uniform-pricing trading in terms of profitability and consumers’ surplus. In the research process, this paper focuses on segmenting the consumer population to reduce the dispersion of consumer value to extract consumer surplus. Furthermore, for the same goods, consumer value under the separate selling mode may be more dispersed than the value under the interpersonal group buying mode. Thus, the separate selling mode is added to compare and analyse the profitability and consumer surplus of the separate selling mode and interpersonal group buying mode to provide more insights for sellers and consumers. Under the separate selling mode, if there are many H-consumers (i.e., consumers who give a higher valuation of the product or who have higher price estimations), then it will be effective for sellers to adopt a high price strategy; alternatively, if there is a large consumer population, then the lower price strategy will also attract L-consumers (i.e., consumers who give a lower valuation of the product or who have lower price estimations for the product). However, only one sale price tends to not be optimal because the price is set before the uncertainty is resolved. The results show that, under the interpersonal group buying mode, sellers will simultaneously set the regular price (i.e., the high price) and the group-buying price (i.e., the low price), making them effective in the context of demand uncertainty. Therefore, the interpersonal group buying mode will produce a higher expected profit than that of the separate selling mode, and therefore, sellers will be motivated to use the interpersonal group buying mode. Furthermore, consumers are not motivated to participate in the interpersonal group buying mechanism when both interpersonal group buying price and normal price are low. However, as the normal price increases, the consumer surplus of the interpersonal group buying mechanism will continue to increase, which in turn will encourage consumers to participate in the mechanism, and will expel the low-value consumers. From another aspect, the results reflect that the ultimate goal of the mechanism is not to cater to low-value consumers, but to attract high-value consumers to participate in transactions. Further, in the effective implementation of the mechanism, the optimal interpersonal group buying number and the optimal expected returns are closely related to the ratio of the two types of consumers. Therefore, in the process of implementing the mechanism, the consumers should be consciously subdivided and the private information of different types of consumers should be explored to formulate an effective interpersonal group buying strategy. Finally, the case of "Pinduoduo.com" is introduced, and the validity of related propositions is validated with actual data, and corresponding policy recommendations are provided.
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    Research on the Impact of Intelligent Recommendation System on Consumer Online Shopping
    HU Chun-hua, ZHAO Hui, TONG Xiao-qin, REN Jian
    2020, 28 (6):  158-170.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.015
    Abstract ( 557 )   PDF (2715KB) ( 246 )   Save
    The recommendation system, with information filtering technology, is used to recommend products and services of interest to consumers in e-commerce. The relationship between consumers’ online shopping behaviors, including preferences and loyalty, and their personal attributes such as age, gender and region is analyzed by collecting a large number of questionnaires concerning online shopping with which the reliability and validity requirement for data analysis are met. Propensity Score Matching Method (PSM) is used to study the impact of using recommendation system on expenditure of online shopping. Instrumental Variables Method (IV) is conducted to test the robustness of PSM research results. The results show that the consumer online shopping expenditure using the recommendation system is 14.7% higher than that of the unused one.Online shopping spending is positively correlated with education and income, and negatively correlated with age.Urban consumers and women are more willing to use the recommendation system.Generally, recommendation effect is affected by social relations,complementary products, store reputation. The research results play an important role in assessing the economic benefits of recommendation system, promoting recommendation system to help consumers purchase satisfactory products, and enhancing consumer loyalty.
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    Do Store Image and Location Matter in O2O Context?
    HE Ying-zhao, XU Yi-fan, WANG Kai
    2020, 28 (6):  171-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.016
    Abstract ( 387 )   PDF (1470KB) ( 140 )   Save
    O2O has become a common mode which adopted by many companies, because them widely believed that the integration of channels in the O2O model can play the full advantages of online and offline channels of each other, and bring higher profits and customer retention rates. Store image can be think of an attraction which displayed by store through commodity, atmosphere and display, etc, which can prompt consumers to make positive judgment on the quality of goods provided by store, generate trust in store, and induce consumers’ purchase intention, playing an important role for store.In the O2O context, store not only have an offline store image, but also have an online store image. They will exert their influence on consumers and attract them to patronize independently. In addition, store location also plays a crucial role in traditional business. Good store location enables store to contact and attract a large number of customers, and improves the potential sales volume of retail store. In the fierce competitive environment, small differences in store location also have a significant impact on market share and profit margin. However,in the O2O environment, what role do online and offline store images play in firm performance? Will online and offline store image promote channel integration? Is the location of the offline store still important in the O2O environment? There are no clear answers to those questions. In order to answer these questions, this study be conducted. Firstly, 148 online takeout restaurants’ data have been collected through online data crawling and questionnaire survey, whose location in Xicheng District, Chaoyang District, Haidian District and Dongcheng District of Beijing. Secondly, Smart PLS2.0 is used to data analysis. Finally, several results are found. The findings show that the offline store image have no influence to online store image,channel integration and firm performance. But, the online store image, plays an important role in channel integration and firm performance, which can promote the channel integration and improve the firm performance.Store location can significant moderate the relationship between integration of channels and online store image. These findings increase our understanding of the role of store image and offline store location in the O2O context.And those findings told O2O firms that not a good offline image can naturally generate a good online store image,promote the integration of channels and improve the firmperformance,but need firms timely adjust their own product processing and distribution plan, so as to meet the needs of consumers.Furthermore, good store location in O2O environment is still important for firms because it can promote the integration of channels.
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    Proactive-reactive Innovation Behavior of the Employee: Based on the Mechanism of Distributed Leadership
    YANG Wan-su, YANG Shan-lin, YANG Xi
    2020, 28 (6):  182-192.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.017
    Abstract ( 531 )   PDF (2164KB) ( 294 )   Save
    Employees’ innovation is the key driver of enterprise innovation and core competitiveness. In the context of China’s current organizational environment, there are two types of employee innovation behavior, proactive and reactive innovation behavior of the employee; and there is a huge difference of innovation performance between the two types. However, the existing literature has insufficient research on reactive innovation behavior of the employee, and the theoretical research has been unable to meet the needs of practice. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on two different types of employee innovation behavior under a framework to enrich the research on innovation behavior category. The emerging leadership development orientation—distributed leadership is taken as the breakthrough point; introduces organizational support as the mediated variable, supervisor-subordinate guanxi and values fit as the moderated variable; and builds the model of distributed leadership on the proactive-reactive innovation behavior of the employee. In order to verify the model, 408 knowledge workers are used as the research object, and multiple regression analysis is used for the test. The results show that: the distributed leadership has positive influence on the proactive innovation behavior of the employee, and has negative influence on the reactive innovation behavior of the employee. The organizational support is a mediating effect between distributed leadership and proactive-reactive innovation behavior of the employee. The supervisor-subordinate guanxi and values fit moderate the relationship between distributed leadership and organizational support. The research verifies the effect of the moderated mediation. In addition, the interaction between supervisor-subordinate guanxi and values fit moderates the relationship between distributed leadership and organizational support. Theoretical annotation is provided for the various innovation behavior in the practice of innovation management of China, and enriches its theory.
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    Grey Off-target Deviation Degree Method for Group Decision-making with Regret Aversion
    QIAN Li-li, LIU Si-feng, DENG Gui-feng
    2020, 28 (6):  193-200.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.018
    Abstract ( 392 )   PDF (921KB) ( 187 )   Save
    Grey target method plays an important role in solving multi-attribute decision-making problems. Especially in recent years, because of the increasing complexity of the practical decision-making problems, the group grey target method in uncertain environments has attracted more and more attention. Meanwhile, researchers have concluded that the risk attitude and behavior characteristics of decision-makers have a direct impact on decision results. As the most avoidable emotion in decision-making, regret has gradually become the focus of the decision-making field. However, few attempts have been made to incorporate regret theory into the group grey target model. As a result, the off-target deviation degree method based on regret theory is proposed in this paper to solve the problem of risky multi-attribute group decision-making in which the attribute values, attribute weight and state probability are interval grey numbers. In the situation of considering the decision-makers’ psychological behavior with regret aversion, the regret theory is integrated into group decision-making by constructing the grey perceived utility matrix of each decision-maker, and the grey group positive clout and negative clout are defined. Then the grey group off-target deviation degree is also defined, which is denoted as εi(⊗). The bigger εi(⊗) is, the better the scheme Ai is. An optimal model which produces the maximum comprehensive off-target deviation degree with the maximum entropy is built to get the optimal weight vector of decision-maker, so that the grey group off-target deviation degree of each scheme is ranked. Finally, a case study about the selection of development schemes for a new product is presented to show the method is effective and practical. The approach in this paper makes a model of grey off-target deviation degree for group decision-making with regret aversion on basis of interval grey numbers, which take both the psychological behavior and the uncertainty of real world into account. The model is not only more applicable to the practical problems, but also provides a new way and perspective for group grey target decision making.
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    A New Linguistic Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method Based on Regret Theory and DEMATEL
    ZHANG Fa-ming, WANG Wei-ming
    2020, 28 (6):  201-210.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.019
    Abstract ( 482 )   PDF (1195KB) ( 393 )   Save
    In the face of some complex multiple-attribute decision-making problems, the decision maker prefers to give linguistic evaluation information such as good, medium, bad, et al, and therefore linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem occurs. Linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem can be seen everywhere in real life, and has attracted considerable attention from domestic and overseas experts and scholars in recent years. However, so far the linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making methods are mostly based on expected utility theory, and do not consider the influence relationships among indexes. To overcome these defects, a new linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making method that combines the regret theory, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is proposed, in which the decision maker’s regret aversion behavior and the influence relationships among indexes are considered. Firstly, a linguistic regret-rejoice function is defined on the base of the regret theory and the computational formula of perceived utility value is given. Secondly, the index weights based on linguistic DEMATEL are calculated through analyzing the influence relationships among indexes, and the index weights based on water-filling theory are calculated through a programming model that is constructed by the maximum total capacity of index, then the comprehensive perceived utility value is obtained, through which we can rank the alternatives. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The results show that this method is more practical and reliable as it considers the decision maker’s psychological behavior and the influence relationships among indexes. This paper expands the study of the traditional linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making method, and provides an important reference and guidance for solving linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem.
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    Evolutionary Game Analysis of Local Regulatory Sandboxes Competition from The Perspective of Unbalanced Development
    ZHANG Hong-wei, CHEN Xiao-hui, WEN Jia, WU Yong-chao
    2020, 28 (6):  211-221.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.020
    Abstract ( 409 )   PDF (1319KB) ( 148 )   Save
    Regulatory sandboxes have been implemented in various regions, such as Fangshan District of Beijing, Guiyang of Guizhou Province and Ganzhou of Jiangxi Province,to promote the development of FinTech. In the context of China's vast territory and unbalanced development,what will happen if regulatory sandboxes are launched by local governments? In the game of the regulatory sandboxes between developed and developing areas, will the regulatory sandboxes in developing areas be eliminated, thus regional imbalance is aggravated?To study the above problems,the evolutionary game modelis applied in this paper. Firstly, China's administrative areas are divided into developed and developing ones, and the corresponding local governments are categorized in the same way. Then, the net income models of local governments are constructed by considering such factors as the quantities of FinTech practitioners stationed in the sandboxes, FinTech innovations implemented, potential qualified customers, and the businesses of FinTech innovation, as well as the risk discovery capabilities of the regulatory sandboxes and the average risk management levels of FinTech practitioners in theregulatory sandboxes. Based on the model, evolutionary game analysis of the two groups is performed. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn.First, there is still room to survive for regulatory sandboxes in developing areas. In two of the fifteen cases, implementations of sandboxes is chosen by all local governments in the developing group, while non-implementation of sandboxes is chosen by all those in the developed group. In four cases, implementation of sandboxesis chosen by all local governments in the developed and developing groups. In only one case, implementation of sandboxes is chosen by all local governments in the developing group, while non-implementation of sandboxes is chosen by all local governments in the other group. Second, the final outcomes of local regulation sandboxes are highly dependent on the independent gains and the symbiotic gains. Additionally, the symbiotic gains are also affected by the positive and negative externalities of the counterpart. Therefore, a high degree of dependence exists between the local governments in developed and developing areas, and the final outcome of regulatory sandboxes cannot be decided by either party unilaterally.The conclusions of this paper can be used for reference in the research of the competition of regulatory sandboxes among countries and the arrangements of relevant international coordination mechanism.
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    Grey Forecasting Model of Rural Water Environment Quality Based on Online Searching Information
    ZHANG Ke, ZHONG Qiu-ping, QU Pin-pin, YIN Yao, ZUO Yuan
    2020, 28 (6):  222-230.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.021
    Abstract ( 382 )   PDF (1181KB) ( 164 )   Save
    Water quality prediction is one of the key points in the prevention and control of rural water pollution. However, rural water environment lacks direct monitoring data, and non-direct data is difficult to introduce as variable effectively. A grey forecasting model of rural water environment quality based on online searching information is proposed by integrating grey incidence and prediction model. First, the relationship between rural water quality and online searching information is theorically analyzed, and demonstrated by the online searching data of Lanzhou water pollution event in 2014. Secondly, an initial list of searching keywords associated with rural water environment is collected according to Pressure-State-Response model. Then, by comprehensively contemplating importance and availability of the data, a final list of searching key words is determined. Furthermore, the main features of searching keywords are extracted to construct initial online searching variables by principal component analysis. Thirdly, utilizing grey absolute incidence to evaluate degree of association between each online searching variable and water environment quality. Fourthly, a new multivariable discrete grey forecasting model for different frequency data is proposed. Consequently, strongly associated variables are selected as driving factors of proposed model to construct rural water environment quality model. In case analysis, the data of the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) in Wuzhou, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region is collected for 15 weeks. The proposed model is applied to forecast the COD with introducing the internet searching information. The performance of the model is compared with traditional grey forecasting model. The results show that introducing online searching information can significantly improve the accuracy of grey forecasting model of rural water environment quality. This study can provide decision support for rural water environment management. Meanwhile, a new approach for prediction of rural water environment is established.
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