目标导向多参考点属性价值模型及评价方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.07.018

Abstract

Abstract: To overcome the shortage of current normative and descriptive studies of decision-making, i.e., less capability of providing direct comprehensive supports for attribute value evaluation with multiple reference points (MRPs), two concepts including competitive games (CGs) and CG preference scores (CGPSs) are incorporated with the target-oriented utility/value theory (TOUVT), by which a new normative attribute value function based on TOUVT and the game-preference comparison, shorted as NAVF-T-GPC, is thus presented. Based on NAVF-T-GPC and the range-frequency (R-F) model, a prescriptive linear programming (PLP) model as well as its corresponding appraisal approach, considered as a merge of normative decision-making with descriptive decision-making, is built for directly aiding decision makers with MRPs to evaluate attribute values. According to the presented approach, when a specific performance (x) lies in(x_r,x_r+1), its attribute value is given by ?(x)=[∑r_s=1Δ^*(x_s)p(x_s)]/[∑_s=1^RΔ^*(x_s)p(x_s)], where x_s(x_r) denotes the s^th(r^th) reference point or target object in the target attribute interval [x_L,x_H], s=1,…,R,r=1,…,R-1, Δ^*(x_s) reflecting the CGPS of x_s is determined by the PLP model, and p(x_s) represents the occurrence probability of x_s. Note that the PLP model embodies such key academic thoughts that the attribute value of performance x(x_L≤x≤x_H), behaviorally disclosed by the R-F model, is only a linear approximation to that determined by NAVF-T-GPC. Compared with TOUVT, in which the CGPSs of different attribute performances are supposed to be equal, NAVF-T-GPC is more suitable for reasonably reflecting various decision-makers' complex preference structure since unequal CGPSs related with MRPs are permitted. Compared with behavioral decision-making theories such as the R-F theory/model, which can not be directly applied to real-world decisions because of its descriptive nature, the presented approach is capable of directly aiding decision makers with MRPs. Besides, the approach is built from a new viewpoint of taking the decision goal as a variable directly affecting alternative evaluation and alternative selection, and thus of importance to develop the multiple attribute decision-making theory. Simulation analysis and application comparison show that the presented approach can be widely applied to real-world decisions and has advantages in reasonably evaluating attribute values over the current subjective method based on equally-spaced value judgments.

Key words: attribute value, reference point, target-oriented utility, game utility, range-frequency theory

CLC Number:

F224

LI Chun-hao, LI Wei, LI Meng-jiao, MA Hui-xin, HE Juan, DING Li-xia, TIAN Bo. Target-oriented Model and Approach for Attribute Value Evaluation with Multiple Reference Points[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(7): 163-175.

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Target-oriented Model and Approach for Attribute Value Evaluation with Multiple Reference Points

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