Abstract:

Artificial intelligence （AI） is a major driver of industrial upgrading and productivity growth， while manufacturing-oriented financial services such as finance leasing can accelerate the intelligent upgrading of production equipment. Focusing on the equipment procurement decisions of a capital-constrained manufacturer and the supply chain’s adoption of AI-enabled predictive maintenance， a two-echelon game-theoretic model composed of an equipment supplier and a manufacturer is developed to analyze the joint strategy of technology investment and financing mode choice （bank borrowing versus finance leasing）， and further designs a fixed-payment contract to achieve Pareto improvement. The results show that： （1） compared with bank borrowing， finance leasing internalizes interest costs and retains residual value within the supply chain， thereby mitigating profit leakage； both in the no-technology case and in the case where the supplier invests in the technology， finance leasing increases the equipment order quantity and total system output， leading to a Pareto improvement for both parties； （2） AI-enabled predictive maintenance reduces losses caused by unplanned downtime and generates a quality premium. As a result， when finance leasing is provided， the case in which the supplier also invests in the technology （Case Al） is superior to the case without technology investment； when only bank borrowing is adopted， the case in which the manufacturer invests in the technology while purchasing equipment （Case Amb） is superior to the case without technology investment； and （3） the bank interest rate is a key determinant of the optimal mode combination. As the bank interest rate rises， the optimal mode shifts from manufacturer-led technology investment under bank borrowing （Case Amb） to supplier-led technology investment combined with finance leasing （Case Al）. Moreover， there exists an interest-rate interval in which the system-optimal mode is inconsistent with the supplier’s individually optimal mode. To address this divergence， Nash bargaining is employed to determine the optimal fixed payment， thereby aligning mode choice and achieving Pareto improvement. These findings provide useful insights for industry-finance integration practices that leverage financial services such as finance leasing to facilitate AI investment and adoption and enhance production efficiency in the real sector.

Key words: AI?based predictive maintenance, finance leasing, supply chain coordination