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20 June 2018, Volume 26 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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An Indicator of Conditional Probability of Crisis for Systemic Risk Measurement ZHU Xiao-qian, LI Jing-yu, LI Jian-ping, CHEN Yi-bin, WEI Lu 2018, 26 (6):  1-7.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.001 Abstract ( 779 )   PDF (1563KB) ( 658 )   Save The 2007 subprime mortgage crisis has arouse wide concern about systemic risk measurement, However, the commonly used measures could not reflect the real-time system risk of financial industry well due to their limitations. In this paper, an indicator of Conditional Probability of Crisis (CPC), which defines systemic risk as the probability of a systemic crisis given the crisis of a single financial institution, is proposed. It can be calculated by the lower tail dependence between stock returns of the financial institutions and the financial system. The efficient-markets hypothesis states that asset's prices fully reflects all valuable information. Firstly, based on the market model, the common part affected by the market factor is removed from the stock returns to derive the heterogeneous parts affected by the firm-specific factor. Then, the Clayton copula is used to estimate the lower tail dependencies between the stock returns of every financial institution and financial system. Lastly, the CPC value of the financial system is calculated by averaging all these tail dependencies. This value reflects the average probability that the crisis of a single financial institution will lead to the crisis of the entire financial system. On one hand, the proposed indicator embodies the connotation of systemic risk very clearly. On the other hand, it can be obtained timely and is comparable across different time points, which is thus useful for monitoring the real-time systemic risk. In the empirical study, based on the data of 49 Chinese listed financial institutions, including banks, security companies and insurance companies, the systemic risk of the entire Chinese financial industry and its three sub-industries from January 2007 to June 2016 is obtained respectively. The empirical results show that:firstly, the systemic risk of Chinese financial industry has an obvious upward trend since June 2014, and nowadays it's even much higher than that during the subprime mortgage crisis. In addition, the security industry experiences a sustained increase in systemic risk during the sample period. At last, the banking industry always imposes the greatest impact on the systemic risk of the entire financial industry, while the impacts of the securities and the insurances have increased gradually during these years. The proposed indicator, CPC, could be a competitive alternative measure for systemic risk and the empirical results on Chinese financial industry also provides valuable references to the following researches and the financial regulation in China. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Price-Volume Relation of Chinese Non-ferrous Metals Futures Market: Evidence from High Frequency Data ZHU Xue-hong, ZHANG Hong-wei, ZHONG Mei-rui, LIU Hai-bo 2018, 26 (6):  8-16.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.002 Abstract ( 870 )   PDF (1940KB) ( 538 )   Save Research on the relationship between volume and price allows market regulators and policymakers to more accurately assess the trading activity in the market and provide guidance for effective market regulation, trend analysis and decision-making. Therefore, research on the relationship between volume (volume and open interest) and price volatility has important theoretical and practical significance. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993), volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The basic price-volume relation model, price-volume relation model based on the decomposition of the trading volume and open interest, and the asymmetric model on the price-volume relation to account for the positive and negative realized semi-variance and the different shock of trading volume and open interest to futures market are constructed, and the empirical research is made using high frequency data of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper and aluminum futures. The results show that there is positive correlation between the volatility and trading volume and between relative trading volume, but there is significantly negative correlation between volatility and open interest and between relative open interest in Chinese non-ferrous metals futures market. The expected and unexpected trading volume have positive influence on price volatility. Furthermore, the unexpected trading volume has a bigger influence on price volatility. The expected and unexpected open interest, on the contrary, have negative influence on price volatility. Furthermore, the unexpected open interest has a bigger influence on price volatility. That is to say, the price volatility of non-ferrous metals futures market is mainly induced by unexpected trading volume and unexpected open interest, which represent the new information. The trading volume and open interest have stronger explanatory power in upside realized semi-variance than downward realized semi-variance. The influence of positive trading volume shock on price volatility is bigger than that of negative trading volume shock, which is the same with open interest. The research findings have important reference value for judging and forecasting the financial market trend and risk avoidance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The B1ack-Litterman Portfolio Model Embedded GARCH to Estimate Volatility LING Ai-fan, CHEN Xiao-yang 2018, 26 (6):  17-25.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.003 Abstract ( 904 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 430 )   Save The investor's subjective view is the key factor in B1ack-Litterman portfolio model and can improve the performance of the mean-variance portfolio. But, in practice, it is found that the opinions of investors are difficult to measure and compute.To overcome this difficulty, GARCH model is embedded to B1ack-Litterman model. The volatility prediction of GARCH model is used to estimate the paramaters in B1ack-Litterman model. Specially, we summary as follows. Methods:In order to estimate the parameters of subjective views of investors, GARCH model is used to estimate the views' vectors and subjective volatility by the following predicting equation: with all coefficients known. Data:Two market data sets are considered. One is from China A share market, in which we take SSE 380 Index, and the portfolio consists of 10 different indices from SSE 380 Index. The data is from Jan 4th 2005 to Dec 31st 2016. Another is from US market, in which three indices, 10 Industry portfolio, 17 Industry portfolio and 25 Indusrty portfolio, are chosen, and all data is from French Library data. Results:Comparisions with mean-variance model and BL model with modified by Idzorek(2002) are considered. Our numerical results show that (1) The BL model embedded GARCH can reduce the volatility of portfolio and obtain the smallest volatility among three models, (2) The largest Sharpe ratio can be obtained by the proposed model, and (3) the cumulative return (wealth) is highest among three model for the same investment period. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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FEPA: An Adaptive Integrated Prediction Model of Financial Time Series PAN He-ping, ZHANG Cheng-zhao 2018, 26 (6):  26-38.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.004 Abstract ( 846 )   PDF (1190KB) ( 459 )   Save In this paper, an adaptive model is documented for predicting financial time series integrating signal processing, information fusion and computational intelligence. The model consists of financial time series (FTS)-specific Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for signal processing, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimension reduction, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for nonlinear prediction. The model uses a sliding window to capture the most recent time series data, applies EMD to transform the data into multilevel Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF's). PCA is then used to reduce the dimension of IMF's and to generate a set of information-rich features which are input into an ANN to generate the output as prediction. This novel model of prediction implements an information fusion process consisting of signal decomposition, dimension reduction and nonlinear synthesis. This model lifts the prediction capability to a new level. The originality of this work exhibits in fouraspects:1) a structural reformulation of EMD algorithm, providing an interface to more information fusion, 2)deepening into finer time frames for tackling the end effect of EMD andimplementation and testing on two levels of time frameimplementation,3) investigation of multi-step prediction, 4) a generic framework of prediction models for financial time series with upgradability and extensibility. The use of sliding window for EMD also gets the test closer to the reality.The new model is tested on the historical data of two stock indices-Chinese HS300 and Australian AORD, the performance, achieving a hit rate of 78% and 82% on HS300 D1 and M15, and 74% on AXJO D1 respectively, significantly higher than 5 existing models after comparison. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Business Insurance Strategy against Risks from Yield Uncertainty of Raw Materials for Farm and Sideline Products Production CHEN Jing, CHEN Jing-xian, WEI Hang 2018, 26 (6):  39-50.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.005 Abstract ( 658 )   PDF (2088KB) ( 379 )   Save In the modern farm and sideline products processing industry, as a production model, manufacturers tend to grow raw materials themselves to meet the needs of production. This production model is not only beneficial for enterprises to better control the final product quality, but also can effectively reduce the production costs. And yet, there is an indisputable fact that the yield of crops is susceptible to adverse events (such as natural disasters), resulting in uncertainty of production. This uncertainty can lead to a heavy shortage of final product output, and even develop financial crisis if it is getting serious enough. In response to potential risks, farm and sideline products manufacturers may purchase business insurance from financial institutions. However, the purchase of business insurance requires a certain amount of premium to be paid in advance. The premium should be a sunk cost to the enterprise concerned if there would be no adverse events during the whole planting period of crops. In view of the huge economic losses from sunk cost and little probability of adverse events, there emerges a crucial theme of production and operation management for boththe theoretical and practical circles to deal with; namely, whether or not manufacturers should avoid farm and sideline products raw materials yield uncertainty risks by means of purchasing business insurance, and, if purchasing, how for the manufacturers to establish the optimal strategy of business insurance. Firstly in this paper, a single-period decision model is built up for farm and sideline products manufacturer's production planning yield. Based on the model, the influence of business insurance strategy on decisions of manufacturer's planning yield, and on expected profits as well, are analyzed respectively. In comparative studies, the boundary conditions and the optimal business insurance strategies in favor of manufacturers are explored to purchase the kind of insurance, and then the value of business insurance strategy is analyzed by means of which manufacturers avoid the uncertainty risks of raw material yield. The impact of market parameters on hedging values of the business insurance is further discussed, so as to help manufacturers better understand the operational mechanism of business insurance strategies in avoiding the uncertainty risks of raw material yield. By comparatively analyzing the optimal planning yield and the expected profit of the manufacturer under no-insurance case and purchasing business insurance case, the following conclusions are drawn:(1) Only when the security load of premium is lower than the external financing penalty cost per unit would a manufacturer buy the insurance; (2) The manufacturer's optimal business insurance strategy is independent of planned yield; (3) If the loss of the net profit caused by adverse events is higher than the external financing threshold, the manufacturer would transfer the very part of the loss which is higher than the threshold to the financial institution; And (4) the lower the net profit of the final products, the higher the value of insurance would be. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Group Buying Models-Based Supply Chain Coordination under Generalized ATO LI Yi-peng, MA Shi-hua, YUAN Kai-fu 2018, 26 (6):  51-61.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.006 Abstract ( 703 )   PDF (1181KB) ( 341 )   Save The traditional assemble-to-order system has been widely used in the manufacturing industry, and any multi-item (component) inventory system in which customer orders may consist of several items (components) in different amounts can be viewed as generalized ATO system. A generalized assemble-to-order supply chain, which is composed of multi-suppliers, single manufacturer and retailer, is considered. In the context of uncertain components (or items) supplying in the upstream and uncertain demand in the downstream, present three group buying models:base model, standard model and coordination model. Due to the uncertainty of the supply chain and complexity of group buying models, the methodology of mathematic deduction and Excel VBA programming are used to simulate data example analysis. These three group buying models' impact on manufacturer, retailer and global supply chain's performance is compared. In the group buying base model, the retailer itself offers price discount to customer, which can increase the order quantity to manufacturer and is always beneficial to manufacturer, but is not to retailer. In the group buying standard model, the manufacturer need offer wholesale price quantity discount contract to retailer before group buying beginning, which can incentive retailer to increase the order quantity by group buying and alleviate the uncertainty of group buying demand. And the standard model which is dominated by manufacturer is better than base model under some certain conditions, but is probably to make retailer even manufacturer itself suffering the loss of profit. In these two models, the manufacturer and the retailer make decisions and initialize group buying dispersedly, and they face the risks of uncertainty of components' supply, order from retailer, manufacturer's yield and customer's demand. Finally group buying coordination model, in which manufacturer and the retailer make centralized decisions by sharing demand information from retailer and yield information from manufacturer, is presented. The study result shows:group buying coordination model is optimal among these three models, and can increase supply chain's global profit, the Pareto's improvement is achieved; but the coordination's performance is bounded by customers' structure of group buying. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Product Strategy with the Consideration of the Opportunity Cost of Upstream Members and Consumers' Heterogeneous Preference in Quality WEN Xiao-qin, Hu Qi-ying 2018, 26 (6):  62-71.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.007 Abstract ( 840 )   PDF (853KB) ( 504 )   Save Based on the opportunity cost of upstream members and consumers' heterogeneous preference in quality, the optimal product strategy in quality and quantity for both the centralized and decentralized supply chain is explored. The decentralized supply chain consists of a retailer and a manufacturer (supplier), and the sequence of game between these two supply chain members is as follows:First, the retailer proposes a quality level for the supply chain product; then the manufacturer (supplier) determines the product's wholesale price charged to the retailer; third the retailer decides the order quantity under the wholesale price; the product strategy in quality and quantity and the wholesale price will be written in the contract developed for two parties if the negotiation between members succeeds; finally, the manufacturer (supplier) organizes the production activity as the product strategy described in the contract. An optimization model and a game model for the centralized and decentralized supply chain problems are formulated respectively, and the optimal solution and Nash equilibrium solution are obtained. Further, the impact of the consumers' heterogeneous preference in quality and opportunity cost of upstream members on supply chain product strategy, supply chain's profit and consumers' surplus are discussed through sensitivity analysis and numerical examples. Our analysis illustrates some management insights:(1) when the average consumers' preference level in quality is high, the supply chain should take a product strategy with high quantity and high quality and high price; (2) the supply chain product strategy should be to more focus on the public demand when the marginal cost of quality is low; whereas the supply chain only needs to consider the high-end demand with higher quality sensitivity and higher willingness to pay when the consumers' preference in quality is greatly heterogeneous and the marginal cost of quality is high; (3) The product should be considered to exit from the market with low average consumers' preference level in quality, high marginal cost of quality and homogeneous customers' preference in quality since both the supply chain performance and consumers' surplus are very low for this case; (4) the balance of power distribution among channel members is critical to obtain a higher supply chain's profit and social welfare; whereas it is key for the downstream retailer to achieve a stronger power in supply chain decisions if the supply chain strategy is to focus on consumers' cultivation and improve the product quality. Finally, in our research framework, the first mover advantage in the profit sharing is identified. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research of Manufacturers' Channel Strategy under Dual-channel Supply Chain Based on Differentiated Product LIN Jing, WANG Jiang 2018, 26 (6):  72-84.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.008 Abstract ( 717 )   PDF (2433KB) ( 521 )   Save In this paper, the stackelberg game model is constructed which consists of two competing manufacturers, two retailers and consumers, and it is used to discuss the manufacturer's optimal product distribution channel. Firstly, the consumer utility function model is constructed which depicts product quality difference and channel preference, and the optimal product quality choice and pricing decision about the two manufacturer's are discussed under different channel decisions. Secondly, the influence of channel and brand competition on the manufacturers channel choice and Pareto optimal choice is studied. At last, the influence of channel and brand competition on the quality-price ratio in different channel structure is inspected. The research shows that the customer's channel preferences will influence the manufacturer's channel decisions by affecting the product's quality. When the brand and channel competition come together, they will interact each other and jointly affect the manufacturer's eventually channel choice. The price is positively related to the product's quality. The more intense the channel competition, the less difference between the price of different channel products, the more intense at brand competition in the same channel, the more higher at the price performance of product. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Strategy of the Interaction between Extended Warranty and Base Warranty in a Two-echelon Supply Chain ZHENG Bin, BIAN Yi-wen, MU Li-feng, YAN Shuai 2018, 26 (6):  85-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.009 Abstract ( 782 )   PDF (1379KB) ( 399 )   Save With decreasing profit margins on durable products, extended warranty has become an important profitability source. In such a case, manufacturers, retailers or the both may sell extended warranties to achieve high marginal profits. In this paper, the optimal extended warranty price and product price as well as the impact of warranty service on base warranty in a supply chain are examined. To address such challenging issues, a supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer is considered. The manufacturer produces a product bundled with a base warranty and sells it through the retailer. The extended warranty can be offered by the manufacturer, the retailer or both. Specifically, in the last case, consumers may prefer to extended warranty provided by the manufacturer or the retailer. Theoretical models in the three scenarios are developed by using game theory. The results show that who offering extended warranty depends on warranty cost. When extended warranty is provided by a single entity, extended warranty has a positive (or negative) effect on base warranty if extended warranty is only provided by the manufacturer (or the retailer) and it is beneficial for both members when extended warranty offered only by the manufacturer. When both players providing extended warranty, warranty competition leads to reduce extended warranty price; and when consumers prefer to a player's extended warranty, its price is higher than that of the other. In this case, the interaction between the base warranty and the extended warranty depends on the competition level. In particular, when consumers prefer to the manufacturer's extended warranty, both players' profits are relatively stable and higher than those when only one player offers the service. Our findings can provide theoretical supports for practical warranty service management and can further enrich related research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Float Analysis in Repetitive Scheduling Model ZHANG Li-hui, ZOU Xin, HUANG Yuan-sheng, QI Jian-xun 2018, 26 (6):  95-103.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.010 Abstract ( 769 )   PDF (1787KB) ( 343 )   Save Float analysis plays an important role in engineering project management; it aims to determine the amount of time that the duration of a non-critical activity can be extended or the start time of the activity delayed, before it enters the critical path. The critical path method (CPM) has been widely used in the construction industry to determine which activities are on the critical path and which are not. However, there exists another type of construction project, usually referred to as a "repetitive project", for which CPM may not be the best scheduling technique for planners to employ. A repetitive project can be defined as a project which involves a number of units of work to be finished and a set of activities that need be repeated for each unit in the length of the job. Examples of such projects are highways, high-rise buildings and housing projects. Repetitive scheduling model (RSM) is a scheduling technique that may be better suited to repetitive projects than CPM. In RSM, existing float analysis methods are based on the assumption that all activities are performed without interruption. Once the work interruption is in presence, these methods will fail to evaluate the quantification of float. This paper aims to develop a new float analysis method in RSM considering the work interruption. When the work interruption is considered, the amount that the duration of a non-critical activity can be extended may not be equal to the amount that the start time of the activity can be delayed. Therefore, two different ways for a non-critical activity to use float are distinguished, i.e. "changing the start time" or "prolonging the duration". For each way of using float, three types of float are typically calculated, i.e. total float, free float and safety float. A series of numerical algorithms are also proposed to calculate the quantifications of the above floats, which make the float analysis process in RSM can be computerized. Finally, a pipe engineering project is analyzed to validate the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can provide more effective solutions than existing float analysis methods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on the Remanufacturing Strategy for Durable Goods Monopolist with Second-hand Market LIU Dong-xia, CHEN Hong 2018, 26 (6):  104-114.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.011 Abstract ( 675 )   PDF (970KB) ( 505 )   Save Accompanying the decrease of resources and the aggravation of environmental pollution, many countries have chosen to develop circular economy as an important way to achieve sustainable development of economy and society. As an effective way to promote the development of circular economy, remanufacturing has been valued by more and more enterprises. Many companies,such as Apple, IBM, HP, Dell etc, have carried out remanufacturing activities. Meanwhile, remanufacturing management and decision making become a hot topic in the literature. Considering the second-hand market, the demand functions of new durable goods, old durable goods and remanufactured durable goods are calculated by using the consumer utility model. The decision model of maximizing the profit of durable goods monopolist is put forward by employing these demand functions. In terms of Stationary equilibrium and optimization analysis, the remanufacturing strategy selection problems for durable goods monopolist are discussed. At last, some conclusions are proposed. There are some thresholds, which including new durable goods cost, manufacturing cost, consumer acceptation and old durable goods depreciation rate. Only when the new durable goods cost and remanufacturing cost are lower than the thresholds, consumer acceptation is higher than the threshold, the old durables depreciation rate is lower than the threshold, durable goods monopolist should select the remanufacturing strategy. Remanufacturing strategy will not only cause cannibalism on new durable goods market, but also on the secondary market. There is a threshold of the old durable goods utilization rate. When the old durable goods utilization rate is higher than the threshold, remanufacturing strategy can obtain durable goods market growth effect. Moreover, the higher the new durable goods cost is, the more obvious the market growth effect is. All findings suggest that several key factors should be considered when durable goods monopolist chooses the remanufacturing strategy, such as new durable goods cost, manufacturing cost, consumer acceptation, old durable goods depreciation rate and utilization rate, which could provide reference for related durable goods enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Option Game Analyses on the Pricing and Timing of Firm Distressed M&A under Hyper-Competition ZHENG Xiang-ming, GUAN Jian, YAN Yan 2018, 26 (6):  115-123.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.012 Abstract ( 777 )   PDF (1225KB) ( 404 )   Save With the advent of the era of hyper-competition, an enterprise's survival environment has undergone great changes. As the speed of technology updating has become faster and faster and the competition of market has become more and more drastic, enterprises will be stuck in stagnation and even bankruptcy if it fails to keep pace with technology innovation or makes wrong management decision. An enterprise's financial distress would not only bring a harmful effect to itself, but also lead to losses of investors, creditors and other stakeholders. As a result, how to solve the financial distress has drawn more attention. The better way to solve financial distress is merger and acquisition, because the target firms can obtain money and technology from the acquirer firm. But for the acquirer firm, assessing distressed firm's value may faces greater risk. On the other hand, firm distressed M&A happens and implements in a short time, which leads to a limitation on time for the acquirer firms to take full consideration. Consequently, the acquirer firms should be more discreet about making the M&A decisions. In order to maximize the value of M&A, the acquirer firms have to select the optimal M&A timing and estimate the reasonable value of the acquired firms. In this paper, the option game method is applied to improve the management flexibility of firm distressed M&A' decision making, as well as reduce the risk of firm distressed M&A to the maximum under the Hyper-competition environment. Due to the unique option game characteristics of the firm distressed M&A under the hyper-competitive environment, three Hyper-competition characteristic factors (the variables that lead to negotiation breakdown or the number of negotiation breakdown, competitive intensity and competitive uncertainty)and a firm distressed M&A characteristic factor are used to analyze the firm distressed M&A decision makings under the condition of one-time payment competitors exist. Meanwhile, those models are applied into practice to change the distressed firm's financial status and make the acquirer firms profit growth. By means of the model calculation, case simulation and parameter analysis, several main conclusions are obtained as follows: (1)Under the Hyper-competition environment, the firm distressed M&A value compensation ratio that the acquired firms are given by the acquiring firms and the optimal M&A timing of acquiring firms are influenced by the competitive intensity, the competitive uncertainty, the cognitive distance and the bargaining power of two parties of the M&A. (2)Under the Hyper-competition environment, the optimal firm distressed M&A timing greatly depends on the relative value ratio between the acquiring firms and acquired firms, but is not directly related to the accumulated value of any relevant firms. (3)Under the Hyper-competition environment, there are two unequal value of waiting options existing in the process of firm distressed M&A, which means there are two optimal M&A timings. The acquiring firms should implement the M&A when the relative value ratio between the acquiring firms and acquired firms increases from below the lower limit of the M&A threshold to the lower limit of the M&A threshold, or when it decreases from above the upper limit of the M&A threshold to the upper limit of the M&A threshold. (4)Under the Hyper-competition environment, both the acquirer firms and target firms are willing to quote a price in advance and the acquirer firms occupy a position of advantage in the process of game. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolution of Enterprise Environmental Innovation Behavior under Heterogeneity Demand of Consumer ZHAO Ai-wu, DU Jian-guo, GUAN Hong-jun 2018, 26 (6):  124-132.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.013 Abstract ( 739 )   PDF (2775KB) ( 583 )   Save Enterprise environmental innovation is of great significance to fundamentally solve environmental problems and achieve sustainable development. With the increasingly serious environmental problems, consumers' preferences for product's environmental attributes may become an important driving force for enterprise environmental innovation. From the perspective of heterogeneous consumer demands, based on computational experimental method, multiple enterprise agents having different innovation attitudes, innovation preferences and disposable funds, along with multiple consumer agents having different preference on the price, quality and environmental performance of products are constructed. It simulates the product selection process for consumers and product innovation process for enterprises, reflecting the dynamic evolution of market demand and its influence on enterprise environmental innovation behavior by changing individual consumers' heterogeneous demands. Then the internal mechanism between green demand and environmental behavior of enterprises and the evolutionary rules is analyzed. The experimental results show that consumers' heterogeneous preferences for product attributes have a significant influence on enterprise environmental innovation performance. Although enterprise environmental innovation behavior is not conducive to the improvement of economic performance, under the scenario of high green demand, it can cause the change of the market structure and eventually achieve both environmental and economic performance by the advantage of early action in long term. Since enterprise environmental innovation risk has great relationship with consumers' green demands, in order to promote enterprise environmental innovation, government should not only take necessary incentive or subsidy policy, but also guide consumers to pay more attention on the environmental attributes of products. It is important to fundamentally promote enterprise's sustainable environmental innovation behavior. This study has important theoretical significance for revealing the self-organization evolution rule of enterprise environmental innovation behavior under heterogeneous demand. It also can provide a scientific basis for the decision making of a series of government policies and measures. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Study on Advertising Cooperation Model in Recruitment Service Supply Chain HOU Jing-yi, LU Wen-xing, LIANG Chang-yong, GU Dong-xiao 2018, 26 (6):  133-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.014 Abstract ( 737 )   PDF (1491KB) ( 352 )   Save Recruitment and job hunting is a game process between recruitment enterprises (RE) and job hunting talents (JHT) in talents and human resource market. Since neither of two parties can get full information from the other side, some recruitment website servicers (RWS) appeared. But few studies have addressed that how to select the best suitable RWS. In this study, a website advertising cooperation model between service providers and recruitment companies is developed which can be used to forecast expected utility of recruitment enterperises, service providers and service supply chain. Recruiters can select one or several website recruiting service providers and build a service supply chain for long -term cooperation on recruitment (RSSC) which will be helpful for the ability complementary, advertising cooperation,utility maximum and profit sharing amongst these partners. The recruiters and website recruiting service providers can attract talents to submit resumes and improve the effect of recruitment by cooperating and releasing advertisements. In a RSSC, different RWS offers talents resumes from different industries, and resumes matching rates differ from each other according to RE's requirements. A parameter (ρi) is introduced for RE's preliminary judgment on website resumes fit from different RWSs. There are six independent variables:ρi(website resumes fit),xi (advertisement intensity), ri(advertisement effect), ti(discounting rate of advertising), wi(cost of vacant position), and pi(searching price of vacant position). There are four dependent variables such as yi(the amount of expected talents resumes),uEi(the effect of RE), uWi(the effect of RWS), uSi(the effect of RSSC). Supposing yi is a decreasing function of pi, we will have increasing function of ri and increasing function of xi with diminishing-marginal effect, i.e. yi(pi,xi)=ρi(yij-αpi+ri√xi). A Steinberg game is designed in which RWSs make decision first and then REs make decision. With the method, 6 propositions are found for the reference of RE's decision making. The results of our study show that when the effect of website advertisement is bigger, which makes it more convenient for the talents to submit their resumes, the recruitment effect of RE will be better. When website resumes fit is bigger, which bringing more resumes of talents, the effect of recruitment will be better. If the discounting rate of advertising and the price of positions are redetermined, the other parameters and the corresponding recruitment effect can be predicted. A case study is provided in which our model was used to assist an enterprise successfully select two ideal website service providers and build a parallel supply chain for long-term recruitment service. All the data are from practical investigation. It proved that our proposed model has practical application value in real world. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pre-positioning Decisions of Stockpiling Multiple Relief Materials: An Extended Newsvendor Approach CHEN Jing-xian, LIANG Liang 2018, 26 (6):  143-152.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.015 Abstract ( 808 )   PDF (1499KB) ( 371 )   Save Stockpiling relief resources play a vital role in improving performance of responding potential disasters. Considering a relief organization facing multiple contingent disaster events, a two-stage delivery process model is developed to characterize relief materials' delivery after a disaster. The delivery process model proposes that relief organizations first deliver the stockpiling inventories after a disaster. The second delivery incorporating social donation and emergency purchasing is triggered only when the demand is backordered. A multi-product inventory model is proposed that aims to minimize the expected total costs when all demands incurred by an arbitrary disaster need to be fully satisfied. The optimal solution characterized by an implicit function is derived. Furthermore, the effect of the budget constraint is also investigated. A binary algorithm is established for solving the model. Numerical examples are employed to examine the model and algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing Policies and Contracts Design in a “Farmer-Supermarket Direct Purchase” Supply Chain with Asymmetric Information JIN Liang 2018, 26 (6):  153-166.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.016 Abstract ( 795 )   PDF (1405KB) ( 449 )   Save The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture of the PRC issued several files concerning advancing the development of "farmer-supermarket direct purchase" mode since 2008. The "farmer-supermarket direct purchase" supply chain can work out to supermarkets and farmers benefit, which is helpful for improving supply chain economic benefits. However, the existence of the consumers' mismatch cost and information asymmetry often complicate the decision-making process, which results from unfair distribution of supply chain profit. To solve this problem, a "farmer-supermarket direct purchase" supply chain consists of a farmer and a supermarket under asymmetric mismatch cost information is studied. The farmer produces a kind of agricultural product at a limited yield and wholesales it to the supermarket. The supermarket in turn then distribute the product to consumers. The main work in this paper includes four parts. At first, optimal contracts are proposed and the optimal pricing strategy under full information and asymmetric information are analyzed, respectively. Second, on this basis, the effects of the mismatch cost on the equilibriums are analyzed, and consequently the farmer's profit under different wholesale price strategies is compared. Third, to address the value of information, the optimal decisions of both the farmer and supermarket are compared, and the changing of consumer surplus and social welfare under full and asymmetric information are compared. Finally, the effect of different types of consumers and asymmetric information on willingness to share information and negotiation behaviors is presented. The results show that, the agricultural products will never be unmarketable under full information, and the contracting scheme, composed of a wholesale price and a fixed payment, can coordinate the supply chain perfectly. By solving the optimization problem, the low wholesale price strategy, the fixed wholesale price strategy and the high wholesale price strategy for farmer are presented under asymmetric information, respectively. The farmers' profit will be less due to lack of accurate information about consumer, the supermarket will get extra information rent, while the asymmetry information may not decreases the consumer surplus and the social welfare. Moreover, when the farmers' bargaining power satisfy certain conditions under the high wholesale price, the supermarket will reveal the private information voluntarily and share the agricultural products supply chain's profit with farmers. In summary, the value of "farmer-supermarket direct purchase" supply chain under asymmetric information is investigated. Moreover, three contracting mechanisms are used to coordinating the supply chain under asymmetric information, which offers a practical and a theoretical guidance to improve the value of "farmer-supermarket direct purchase" supply chain. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization and Coordination Decisions for V2G Reserve Contract Based on CVaR Risk Measurement HUANG Shou-jun, YANG Jun 2018, 26 (6):  167-177.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.017 Abstract ( 669 )   PDF (2079KB) ( 408 )   Save In view of the channel structure composed of a single risk-neutral grid corporation and a single risk-averse electric vehicle user,the reserved electricity decision model under the CVaR measurement criterion is proposed based on the reserve transaction involving V2G reserve and the popular contract price mechanism of "buying price floor protected,price fluctuation in line with market conditions" in practice. The optimal decision behaviors of the grid corporation and electric vehicle user in the decentralized and integrated decision are investigated successively. The research shows that the risk aversion characteristic of the electric vehicle user reduces the level of channel performance,and the traditional price mechanism of "buying price floor protected,price fluctuation in line with market conditions" cannot coordinate such V2G reserve channel well. On this basis,the perfect coordination of the cooperation system,as well as the Pareto improvement of both channel sides' profits can be achieved with the combined contract of "repurchase subsidy + market protective price + margin". The numerical analysis illustrates the basic characteristics of the above proposed models and methods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Emergency Materials Distribution Optimization with Timeliness and Fairness Objective for Post-Earthquake Emergency Rescue QU Chong-chong, WANG Jing, HUANG Jun, HE Ming-ke 2018, 26 (6):  178-187.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.018 Abstract ( 828 )   PDF (1574KB) ( 415 )   Save The effective protection of emergency materials after large-scale earthquake is the necessary prerequisite for emergency rescue. There are two stages of transporting and distributing the emergency materials after post-earthquake, it shall be transported from the regional reserve warehouse and the peripheral materials to the regional emergency distribution center, then the regional emergency distribution center will convey the material to the disaster area. Emergency material security has shortage of long duration, strong demand and the relative materials lacking. The key problem to be solved urgently is how to balance the timeliness and fairness in emergency materials distribution with multi-period in the two-stage and multi-transportation modes in joint participation.The paper establishes an optimization model of emergency location and material distribution route considering multi-transportation modes and multi-period and designs a model with elite strategy. The effectiveness of the model and the algorithm is validated with the example of the earthquake in Jiuzhaigou area in Sichuan province. It can be proved that the effectiveness and fairness of the disaster relief process are contradictory. According to the reference graph of Pareto front, the time-sensitive target fluctuation of the relief materials is small, and the fair target of the distribution material is more volatile. when the goal of fairness is larger, the target of timeliness increases slightly, while the objective of fairness is greatly reduced. The objective function model with random parameters such as road safety factor, vehicle safety performance and transportation time is the direction of the future research. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Contractual Governance, Justice and Extra-role Altruistic Behaviors in Marketing Channels WANG Yong, ZHUANG Gui-jun, ZHANG Chuang, LIU Zhou-ping 2018, 26 (6):  188-196.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.06.019 Abstract ( 731 )   PDF (1031KB) ( 513 )   Save Extra-role altruistic behaviors play important roles in developing and maintaining the long-term economic cooperation and exchange relationship in marketing channels. Previous studies have examined the impact of contractual governance on extra-role altruistic behaviors. However, the influence mechanism has not been explored. Moreover, the effects of different dimensions of contractual governance also need more investigation. Based on transaction cost theory, equity theory and resource-based view, a conceptual model is developed to describe the relationships among contractual governance (operationalized as contract complexity and contract monitoring), justice (including distributive justice and procedural justice), dependence and extra-role altruistic behavior from the perspective of distributors in marketing channels. To examine the proposed conceptual model, the survey data of 660 distributors is collected from household appliances industry of China. Analyzing the data by using structural equation modeling AMOS24.0, the impact of contract complexity and contract monitoring on distributive justice and procedural justice and the mediating roles of distributive justice and procedural justice on relationship between contractual governance and extra-role altruistic behavior is tested. The moderating role of distributor's dependence on the supplier is also examined. The results show that, first, both contract complexity and contract monitoring positively affect distributor's distributive justice and procedural justice. Second, two types of justice independently affects distributor's extra-role altruistic behaviors. Third, distributor's dependence moderates effects of distributive justice and procedural justice on extra-role altruistic behaviors in different ways such that, as distributor's dependence increases, the positive impact of distributive justice on distributor's extra-role altruistic behaviors would be stronger but the positive impact of procedural justice on distributor's extra-role altruistic behaviors would be weaker. Finally, distributive justice and procedural justice mediate the effect of contractual governance (contract complexity and contract monitoring) on extra-role altruistic behaviors. The results not only fill the gaps in the literature of extra-role altruistic behaviors in marketing channels, but also suggest some managerial implications. It suggests suppliers to adopt proper contractual governance components in order to increase distributor's perception of justice and hereafter induce distributor's extra-role altruistic behaviors. References | Related Articles | Metrics