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20 July 2016, Volume 24 Issue 7 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Analysis on Evolutionary Stability Conditions for SMEs Credit Re-guarantee System WANG Hui, DENG Xiao-mei, YANG Wei-hua, FENG Ke 2016, 24 (7):  1-10.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.001 Abstract ( 1358 )   PDF (1326KB) ( 1035 )   Save In countries with stable small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) credit re-guarantee system, SMEs credit guarantee companies are required to join the re-guarantee system, and every SMEs credit guarantee agreement is automatically guaranteed by re-guarantee company. However, SMEs credit re-guarantee system is not mandatory in China. An important question is what conditions shall be matched in order to form a stable SMEs credit re-guarantee system through market mechanism rather than compulsory means. To answer the question, an evolutionary game model between SMEs credit guarantee companies and re-guarantee companies was developed to explore the evolutionary stability conditions for SMEs credit re-guarantee system. The evolutionary stable strategies and corresponding conditions of the system were found by utilizing the stability theory of differential equations. Under the premise of steady development of the system, adjustable ranges of operating mechanisms in the re-guarantee system, such as risk sharing proportion, re-guarantee rate and minimum government subsidy, were also further discussed quantitatively. Lastly, a numerical example was provided to verify and applicate the conclusions. The results show that the stable development of SMEs credit re-guarantee system needs two conditions:the incremental payoff of re-guarantee companies has to be positive, and the incremental payoff of guarantee companies has to exceed the filing costs after SMEs credit guarantee companies joining in the SMEs credit re-guarantee system. The results also show that the compensation rate has significant influences on the operating mechanisms in the re-guarantee system. The greater the compensation rate, the lesser the adjustable range of risk sharing proportion and re-guarantee rate. Moderate government subsidy is needed if the adjustable range of risk sharing proportion and re-guarantee rate is absent. The research results provide theoretical references that can be used to improve China's SMEs credit re-guarantee system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Multi-period Mean-semivariance Portfolio Selection with Minimum Transaction Lots Constraints ZHANG Peng, ZHANG Wei-Guo, ZHANG Yi-fei 2016, 24 (7):  11-17.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.002 Abstract ( 1082 )   PDF (790KB) ( 895 )   Save In this paper the multi-period mean semivariance portfolio problem is dealt with minimum transaction lots considering, transaction costs, borrowing constraints and threshold constraints. In this case the problem of finding a feasible solution is NP-complete. An optimal investment policy can be generated to help investors not only achieve an optimal return, but also have a good risk control. The multi-period portfolio selection is the mix integer dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. The forward dynamic programming method is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, the comparison analysis with borrowing risk-free assets and without risk-free assets in the portfolio selection is provided by a numerical example to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approaches and the designed algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Investment and Financing Policy Based on Contingent Convertible Security ZHAO Zhi-ming, YANG Zhao-jun, WANG Miao 2016, 24 (7):  18-26.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.003 Abstract ( 1135 )   PDF (1766KB) ( 943 )   Save In this paper, an innovative financing instrument called contingent convertible security (CCS) is introduced. Using the optimal control, optimal stopping and real options theory, the optimal investment and financing decisions of a firm that issues CCS together with equity and the straight bond is examined. The risk-neutral prices of all the corporate securities, ruin probability within a given time horizon and optimal capital structure are provided. It's shown that there is an optimal fraction of equity allocated to the CCS holders upon conversion that eliminates the agency cost of debt. The optimal fraction is given explicitly. The numerical simulation is performed and static comparative analysis is provided. The numerical examples prove the rationality of the model and the validity of conclusions. In particular, It's demostrated the new invented CCS can significantly increase the value of the option to invest. In contrast to the standard capital structure that issues equity and the straight bond only, issuing CCS can lead to as much as 11.5 percent increase in the real option's value but the number declines to 7.4 percent if the contingent convertible bond is issued instead of CCS. CCS decreases bankruptcy risk as well as the yield spread of the straight bond. With a growth of the volatility rate of the investment project, the issuing firm will increase the investment trigger, the amount of CCS issued, instead of the straight bond and the firm's leverage. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Imported Crude Oil Procurement Strategies Under Different Emergencies PAN Wei, WANG Feng-xia, WU Ting 2016, 24 (7):  27-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.004 Abstract ( 1222 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 951 )   Save The importance of oil to the economic life is evident, the high dependence of Chinese oil imports and centralization of import source regions causes us to pay more attention to energy security. How to effectively minimize the fluctuations of international crude oil price and avoid the risk of crude oil due to supply shortage or interruption, formulate the optimal procurement strategy under different emergencies is the focus of our attention. However, the research of procurement strategy under emergencies in existing literatures is insufficient. This paper uses monthly crude oil imports data, establishes a CVaR model based on different emergency cases, considering price fluctuations, effect of supply disruptions to GDP and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and also analyzes the crude oil import procurement strategies of three different scenarios under emergencies. It is found that when the crisis is expected to occur in the Middle East region, Africa and Europe/Russia are the ideal choices to increase purchase quantity. If price fluctuation in Dubai is not severe, the purchase quantity of Asia also can be appropriately increased. In addition, for only price fluctuations, the effects of using strategic oil reserves to reduce risks are limited. Only when supply is interrupted, it can play a good role of reducing risks and impacts on national economy. Minimizing the risk value of crude oil imports and considering the diversification of import sources, risks and rate of price fluctuations at the same time, the model of crude oil procurement strategy under emergencies based on CVAR established in this paper, not only enriches the research results of this field, but also provides a specific and operational reference for Chinese imported crude oil procurement strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Alarm System of Insurance Companies and Capital Allocation Based on Conditional Ruin Probability BAI Zhe, LI Meng-gang 2016, 24 (7):  36-42.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.005 Abstract ( 946 )   PDF (1108KB) ( 1193 )   Save It is necessary for insurance companies to establish an appropriate alarm system before the possible ruin. Having put forward the basic ideas of the alarm system for insurance companies and defined alarm times, numerical simulation of ruin distribution density and alarm times for both discrete and continuous loss distribution is given, multiple alarms for different initial capital and different capital replenishment programs are simulated, and principle of locating the aggregate capital to its business units is developed. The related results are helpful to the insurance company to improve the efficiency of capital construction funds, strategy of decentralization, and survival ability. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Leader-follower Risk Allocation Strategies for Design-Build Coalitions Based on Fair Process and Social Preferences (FS) Model DING Xiang, CHEN Yong-tai, SHENG Zhao-han, LI Qian 2016, 24 (7):  43-53.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.006 Abstract ( 1062 )   PDF (2317KB) ( 829 )   Save Design-build is proved to be a preferred project delivery method for infrastructure projects, yet how to design an appropriate and fair risk sharing mechanism within design-build coalition (DBC) is essential to achieve project success. Further, despite the well documented literature on risk allocation for infrastructure projects, prior research has largely neglected participants' social preference which is proved to be salience in affecting their attitudes, behavior and, in turn, decision-making process. Accordingly, participants' risk management behavior will be situational, which means they will response to the risk sharing mechanism based on their perception whether the allocation ratio is fair to them. To address the gaps, a quantitative approach is presented to analyze risk sharing arrangement in design-build project by considering DBC member's fairness preference. Fehr and Schmidt's inequity aversion (IA) model is integrated into the proposed risk allocation model. The objective of this paper is to derive results for DBC leader's optimal risk-sharing ratio and DBC members' optimal risk-management effort simultaneously. The derivation is based on solving a restrained optimization problem using the conception and methods from Stackelberg game theory. Analysis results show that:(1) DBC members are prone to different fairness preference (in terms of envy preference and sympathy preference) depending on the value of risk-sharing ratio; (2) DBC members' optimal risk investment decreases with the enhancement of IA level when DBC member is envy preference; (3) DBC members' optimal risk investment increases with the enhancement of IA level when DBC members are sympathy preference; (4) It is beneficial for DBC leader to allocate more risk-sharing ratio to DBC members as their levels of envious preference increase; (5) DBC leader can allocate less risk-sharing ratio to DBC members as their levels of sympathy preference increase.Practically, the article will benefit for those who write DBC negotiation with recommendations on risk allocation strategies. Theoretically, this research sheds a light on establishing optimal risk allocation via considering members' social preference, and fills the gaps where traditional risk allocation models are based on the hypothesis of completely rational person. Accordingly, literature is enriched by providing mathematical evidence on designing a fair risk allocation strategy and, in turn, future research directions are provided for scholars to explore empirical evidence to support notions proposed in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Impact of Customer Response to Stock-out on Bullwhip Effect:Under Supply Chain Disruption ZHANG Xiao-ling, LU Qiang 2016, 24 (7):  54-62.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.007 Abstract ( 1174 )   PDF (1237KB) ( 1151 )   Save Effective supply chain management is a critical capability to fulfill consumer demand. Since the ultimate goal of a performing supply network is to deliver products/services to the end customers, customer response to stock-out (a post-disruption event) should be an important variable. Incorporating the purchasing behavior into the supply network analysis to "bridge" customer responses to stock-out (a marketing phenomenon) and bullwhip effect (a supply chain phenomenon) requires more quantitative modeling, which is currently absent. Indeed, most supply chain modeling takes the end customer as a passive recipient of products/services provided by upstream elements and treats any unfilled orders as backlog. However, with more competitive worldwide sourcing, consumers increasingly shop at alternative outlets to find the items they need, which has significant impact on the supply chain dynamics of stock-out brand and competing brand, and even the overall supply network. In this paper, responses from different customers experiencing stock-out is modelled to effectively identify supply chain mitigation strategies. In this research, a high-level Petri-net is developed to model a supply network with two brands of product and two stores, and five types of customer stock-out responses from marketing literature are identified. In the first experiment, the responses are incorporated in the model to quantitatively assess the correlation between customer response and bullwhip effect of both the stock-out brand and the competing brand. In the second experiment, the data from a marketing research of P&G Company is applied to analysis the impact of stock-out intensity on bullwhip effect of 5 specific product categories, which presented 5 different customer response compositions. Based on the ANOVA analysis of the experiment results, some managerial relevance statements are provided for both the stock-out brand and competing brand. (1) For the stock-out brand, it's suggested that managers should a) focus on customers who prefer to switch store or delay purchase; and b) work together with their retailers to develop customers' store loyalty and encourage customers to substitute within the same brand in a different size. (2) For the competing brand, the manufacturer and its retailers should make great effort to distinguish the demand switched from the stock-out brand from the real demand and grab the opportunity to develop more loyalty customers. (3) Implication to managers for both the stock-out brand and the competing brand is that the incentive to customer behavior should vary with market share and stock-out duration in order to mitigate the bullwhip effect. Through linking supply chain dynamics to customer purchase behaviors based on simulation technology, the impact of stock-out disruption is quantified from the viewpoint of customer behavior for improving supply chain efficiency. We expect that this paper can provide the foundation for a future stream of research for studying the complex topic of disruption stock-out risk in a supply chain by taking into consideration of customer behaviors from marketing perspective. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Decision Analysis of Backup Supplier for Supply Disruptions with Stochastic Demand LI Xin-jun, WANG Jian-jun, DA Qing-li 2016, 24 (7):  63-71.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.008 Abstract ( 1085 )   PDF (1743KB) ( 1197 )   Save During the last decade, to identify and mitigate supply disruptions is a topic that receives substantial management attention. Both diversifying supply sourcing including dual-sourcing and adding a backup supplier are logic ways to manage the risk of supply disruptions. There are two options execution modes. One is N mode that pushes ordering patterns, which means that the retailer orders from the backup supplier in advance under uncertain demand circumstances, the other is Y mode, push & pull ordering patterns, which means that the retailer doesn't order from backup suppliers until he knows the demand circumstance. It's successfully proved that the model is a convex programming through two options implementation strategy adopted by the retailer, and using Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, a predetermined amount of backup suppliers, the closed expressions of optimal order quantity and profit expression can also be obtained. The threshold of using a backup supplier is given. By theorems and further numerical example, it can be concluded:Optimal profits is larger than primary supplier's while primary supplier has larger order quantities under N mode, under Y mode, backup supplier's capabilities predetermined amount. The impacts of model parameters on the ordering quantity from primary supplier are a little different based on the relative size of ce and c because of the execution of options. The capacity utilization of backup suppliers is highest when ce<c but lowest when ce>c under N mode, and it is in the middle level under Y mode. The retailer can obtain more profits under Y mode relative to under N mode as g, c and ce increase, or s and γ decrease. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimal Buy-back Contracts for a Supply Chain with a Risk-averse Retailer DAI Jian-sheng, QIN Kai-da 2016, 24 (7):  72-81.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.009 Abstract ( 1600 )   PDF (1277KB) ( 1106 )   Save In a supply chain led by a supplier, the supplier always can employ contract mechanisms to coordinate the supply chain(SC) so as to improve efficiency of the channel. In many cases, the supplier can make use of different kinds of distribution channels, such as direct channels and indirect channels, hereafter refered to as centralized SC and decentralized SC respectively, to deliver commordities to the terminal market. Does there exist differences in contract arrangement in the two channels?The issue on coordination of the SC is investgated via buy-back contracts, where the supplier has a direct channel and an indirect channel, both with a risk-averse retailer. A model including two stages of game is constructed, where the aversion of the retailers are measured by the conditionally risk-at-value (CVaR), and the supplier maximizes expected profits of the entire SC and its own, respectively, in the centralized SC and the decentralized SC. The model is solved out by backwards solving techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions are characterized to coordinate the channel via buy-back contracts in the centralized SC. The optimal buy-back contracts are solved out in the decentralized SC. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is presented on the buy-back contracts between the two channels. It shows that the supplier tends to set a higher wholesale price or a lower buyback price in the decentralized SC than that in the centralized SC, which leads to that the retailer orders less than the optimal order quantity for the sake of the entire SC. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is made on the impact of the retailers' risk aversion on parameters of buy-back contracts, the retailer's ordering decision and the supplier's payoffs. It shows that the supplier always tends to set a lower wholesale price, given the buy-back price, and attains a smaller expected profit, whether in the centralized SC or in the decentralized one, if the retailer becomes more risk-averse. Therefore, the supplier is more willing to cooperate with retailers with a low risk aversion degree. Finally, an example of Li Ning Co is used to illustrate application of the theoretical model in the real world. Numerical tests are exerted to verify the conclusions including:(1)how strategies of the channel members, and payoff of the entire SC and its members change with the optimal contracts varing, (2)how the risk aversion of the retailers affect strategies of the channel members and payoff of the entire SC and its members, (3)how to determine the optimal contract parameters, and so forth. To consider simultaneously centralized SCs and decentralized SCs, not only a new research perspective is introduced for contract coordination literature theoretically, but also managerial insights are provided for supply chain contracting on the practical level. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Joint Pricing and Order Decision Considering Disappointment Aversion and Elation Seeking of the Retailer CAO Bing-bing, FAN Zhi-ping, ZHANG Hu-wei 2016, 24 (7):  82-91.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.010 Abstract ( 1442 )   PDF (1900KB) ( 1509 )   Save In the real world, the retailer usually focuses on the difference between the real profit and the expectation of the profit in the joint pricing and order decision, and usually perceives disappointment caused by the negative difference between the real profit and the expectation of the profit of the retailer and elation caused by the positive difference between the real profit and the expectation of the profit of the retailer. Some experiments on the psychological behavior analysis in operation management decision show that the retailer is usually averse to the disappointment and seeking to the elation, i.e., the retailer usually exhibits the disappointment aversion and elation seeking. However, the study on joint pricing and order decision considering the retailer's disappointment aversion and elation seeking is still lacking, and the existing studies considering other psychological behaviors such as reference dependence, loss aversion, bounded rationality, decision bias, fairness concern (inequity aversion), overconfidence and mental accounting, cannot be used to solve the joint pricing and order decision problem with the consideration of the disappointment aversion and elation seeking. Hence, it is necessary and significant to study the joint pricing and order decision under the consideration of the disappointment aversion and elation seeking of the retailer. In this paper, first, the expectation of the profit of the retailer is regarded as the reference point which is theoretically between the theoretical minimum of the profit and the maximum of the profit, specially, if the theoretical minimum of the profit is regarded as the reference point, the retailer will not perceive disappointment, if the theoretical maximum of the profit is regarded as the reference point, the retailer will not perceive the elation. Since the reference point of the retailer is usually not lower than 0, the reference point of the retailer is considered to be between 0 and theoretical maximum of the profit. To depict the disappointment aversion and elation seeking, a disappointment-elation utility function is given and illustrated according to the disappointment theory which is proposed by Bell (1985). On the basis of this, a utility function of joint pricing and order decision considering the retailer's disappointment aversion and elation seeking is built by integrating the utility of the real profit and utility (psychological satisfaction) of the disappointment aversion and elation seeking. Then, to maximize the retailer's expected utility, the constructed utility model is analyzed and solved, and the optimal price and order quantity of the retailer are determined through the analysis of the utility function. Furthermore, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the rationality and validity of the study. In the example, the retailer is divided into three types:The retailer with low-expectation of the profit, the retailer with medium-expectation of the profit and the retailer with high-expectation of the profit, and the impacts of the degree of the disappointment aversion and the degree of the elation seeking on the optimal price and order quantity for three types of retailers are analyzed. The results show that the retailer's expectation of the profit, the degree of the disappointment aversion and the degree of the elation seeking will affect joint pricing and order decision of the retailer, and under the consideration of the heterogeneity of the retailers with different expectation of the profit, the impacts of the degree of the disappointment aversion and the degree of the elation seeking on the optimal price and order quantity presents the variation trend. In this study, the scope and content of the operations management problem under the consideration of the psychological behaviors are enriched, and the lesson and guidance for the related study on the behavioral operation problem are provided; the foundation for the further study on this problem is also layed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Study on Inventory and Pricing Strategy for Online Sellers Under Different Payment Schemes BAI Shi-zhen, XU Na 2016, 24 (7):  92-100.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.011 Abstract ( 1126 )   PDF (4247KB) ( 993 )   Save The purchase intention of online consumers is seriously affected by the complicate e-commerce environment and the frequent online fraud. Online sellers solve these problems by offering pay-on-delivery, helping to stimulate the potential market demand. However, it may increase the return rate and firms' operation cost. It is critical to balance the advantages and disadvantages and make the optimal operation strategy under different payment schemes. The online seller's optimal price and inventory decisions are researched under pay-to-order and dual payment scheme respectively (both include pay-to-order and pay-on-delivery). It's found that:1) the price is higher in pay-to-order; 2) the comparison between the two kinds of payment scheme mainly depends on the operating income per unit and the scale of potential market; 3) the profit in dual scheme is higher when consumers all choose pay-to-order than when they all choose pay-on-deliver, moreover, both less than the maximization of the profit, which is affected by market structure. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Integrated Scheduling of Order Picking and Delivery Under B2C E-commerce WANG Xu-ping, ZHANG Jun, YI Cai-yu 2016, 24 (7):  101-109.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.012 Abstract ( 1903 )   PDF (1673KB) ( 1367 )   Save It is an important issue to integrate the order picking with delivery problem under shorter time and lower cost by picking the items from the shelves, packaging them and delivering to customers. A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed to minimize the time required to complete picking the orders, delivering to customer and returning to the distribution center, which solves the joint decision-making problem such as order picking sequence, picking process method and vehicle routing. For this NP-hard problem, a three-phase heuristic algorithm is designed. Firstly, the "clustering-vehicle routing" method is used to get delivery solutions. Secondly, the similarity-based order batching rules are used to optimize each route's orders. Thirdly, picking sequence is sorted based on the descending order of each route's delivery time. The experiments are proposed to test the efficiency of the model. The results are compared with the traditional optimization algorithm, which show that the three-phase algorithm can reduce the throughput time, decrease the vehicle's wait time and improve the delivery resource utilization. integrated scheduling; order picking; vehicle route; three-phase algorithm; genetic algorithmAbstract: With the development and wide-spread use of mobile technology, customers can shop anytime and anywhere through a business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce shopping platform. However small lot-size and high frequency customer orders make order picking and delivery difficult to implement. In order to accelerate the whole order fulfillment process, orders should be picked and delivered to customers in a very short lead time. It is therefore critical to integrate scheduling order picking and distribution under B2C e-commerce. Research on order picking problems, however, seldom takes delivery constraints into consideration. The integrated order picking and distribution scheduling (IOPDS) problem is studied to minimize the time required to complete picking the orders, delivering to customer and returning to the distribution center to meet the demand of a given set of customers. The picking processing method is order bathing optimization and distribution characteristic is batching delivery with vehicle routing problem. The problem is NP-hard in strong sense. A three-phase heuristic algorithm is proposed, analyze upper bounds and low bounds of the algorithm are analyzed. The first phase uses the "clustering-vehicle routing" method to get delivery solutions; the second phase uses the similarity-based order batching rules to optimize each route's orders; the third one sorts picking sequence based on the descending order of each route's delivery time. The traditional sequential approach is also proposed, which optimizes order picking and delivery processes separately.In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithms for IOPDS, several examples are tested. The locations for 300 customers are randomly generated in the 100*100 square, where the warehouse is in the center of the square. The three-phase algorithm's relative difference from the lower bounds is good. The results are also compared with the traditional algorithm, which show several enlightening findings:1) the throughput time of the three-phase algorithm is 17.11% shorter than the one of the traditional algorithm, which means it is significant to integrate order picking and distribution; 2) the average improvement of the three-phase algorithm is 13.03%, shows that it is helpful to improve the whole efficiency of the picking and distribution system; 3) it decreases the vehicle's wait time and improve the delivery resource utilization.Theoretically the IOPDS model and algorithm in the work expand the order picking optimization theory and improve the scheduling of production and distribution problem. Moreover, it is beneficial to the e-commerce shopping platform, which can promote the shipping efficiency, save vehicle resources and improve customer satisfaction. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Effect of Consumers Bounded “Carbon Behavior” Preference on Location-Routing-Inventory Optimization TANG Jin-huan, JI Shou-feng, JIANG Li-wen, ZHU Bao-lin 2016, 24 (7):  110-119.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.013 Abstract ( 1218 )   PDF (1700KB) ( 1127 )   Save The optimization of supply chain network considering both cost and emissions is a hot topic now. However, the traditional researches mostly focus on the trade-off among economic cost, customer service and others. In this paper, a supply chain network model considering the cost and emissions of location, routing and inventory is designed. Also, the consumer environmental behaviors (CEBs) are incorporated. CEBs not only affect consumers' willingness to pay premium prices for low carbon emission products, but also the overall demand for low carbon emission products. Specifically, it's assumed that the price premium for eco-friendly product is px=pθx2. Where p is the price of the normal product, px is the price of the eco-friendly products, and θx is the green level coefficient of products. The demand function describes as dx = d+τθx-λpx. Where dx is the demand of the eco-friendly products, d is the initial demand without considering CEBs or a premium for greener products, τ is the consumers' environmental preference for low carbon products, λ is the market inverse demand coefficient. The contributions of this research can be listed as follows. First, a multi-objective model is constructed, which provides a trade-off between costs and carbon emissions. The NNC method is used to solve the model, and then a Pareto optimal set can be obtained. After that, the revenue function based on the Pareto solutions is proposed. In the computational experiments, the model is tested by the data from the Northeast Chemical Sales Company of CNPC. The obtained Pareto optimal curve provides a portfolio of configurations for decision makers. Then, the same technique can be used to obtain the revenue curves from different carbon emissions. Hence, the unique optimal revenue levels and the relevant decisions can be acquired. Finally, the sensitivity of the case study was analyzed. We are interested in the effects of CEBs on the demand and revenue in a three-level supply chain. The results show that more positive CEBs result in greater demand and higher revenue. Also, it's observed that the pricing of low carbon operations is critical. Therefore, enterprises should make marketing efforts to strengthen consumers' environmental preferences. Companies should support their claims to consumers and ensure the degree of CEBs before implementing their carbon emission reduction policies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Option Contract of Cloud Accounting Service Supply Chain in the Context of Buying out Copyright CHENG Ping, LIN Shu-dong 2016, 24 (7):  120-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.014 Abstract ( 1311 )   PDF (992KB) ( 732 )   Save Interest coordination is the key to the successful cooperation of the two parties involved in the cloud accounting service supply chain in the context of buying out copyright. The research focus on the option contract coordination at the two levels of supply chains consisting of one cloud accounting product provider and one cloud accounting service supplier. In the research, by using initial ordered quantity and service rent price of the service supplier as the decision viable, an option contract model is built to show the correlation between demand and service rent price. The research shows that the option contract alone cannot realize the coordination of cloud accounting service supply chains, but on the basis of the option contract, the united option which allows the service supplier to return the earnings in part to the product provider helps better coordinate the supply chains. The research results can be used as the basis to make decisions on the coordination of supply chains in the context of buying out copyright. The effectiveness and rationality are verified by analyzing computation examples. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dynamic Contract Design in the Electronic Markets under Information Asymmetry DOU Yi-fan, YAO Zhong 2016, 24 (7):  127-134.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.015 Abstract ( 1434 )   PDF (853KB) ( 810 )   Save The recent decade has witnessed the development of internet technology and widespread use of electronic commerce. While the emerging electronic markets, such as Taobao and eBay, have achieved huge number of market transactions at a daily basis, efficient contract designs are still missing for the market owners to extract greater monetary benefits from the third-party sellers' sales in the market. Currently, the most popular form of contract is the commission contract based on the sales history of each seller, which implicitly assumes that sales history is positively correlated with future sales but overlooks the influences of other factors such as seasonal effects, fashion pattern, and potential substitutes, etc. In this paper, an innovative contract design for the owners of electronic market is provided by taking advantage of third-party sellers' private expectation on future sales. In the beginning of each period, upon observing the sales history, the owner offers a customized menu of contracts to the third-party seller. The seller reveals her private information by selection the contract designed for her type. The optimal contract design problem is solved and a simple decision rule is discovered for the contract design. The optimal contract parameter can be given by a function of the failure rate of the estimating distribution of the correlation coefficient. The superiority of this contract is verified by a set of computer simulation study. The numerical results verify that the market owner's profit can be improved by benefiting from the seller's private information. Given the convenience of implementation in the online channels, this type of contract is expected to help owners of electronic market quickly refine their contracting with third-party sellers. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Models and Method of Interval-valued Cooperative Games Based on the Least Square Distance LI Deng-feng, LIU Jia-cai 2016, 24 (7):  135-142.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.016 Abstract ( 1577 )   PDF (853KB) ( 1171 )   Save Most of the existing studies on interval-valued cooperative games in which the values of coalitions S are expressed with intervals υ(S)=[υL(S),υR(S)]are based on the interval arithmetic (e.g., interval subtraction) and ranking functions of intervals and hereby are some extensions of the classic Shapley value. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an effective method for solving n-person interval-valued cooperative games based on the least square method. Firstly, according to the concept of the distance between intervals and the least square method, an optimization mathematical model is constructed through considering that players in coalitions try to guarantee their payoffs' sums being as close to the coalitions' values as possible. Through solving the constructed optimization mathematical model, all players' interval-valued payoffs xi=[xLi, xRi] (i=1,2,…,n) can be obtained, which can be determined by the analytical formula[XL,XR]=[A-1 BL,A-1 BR], where BL=(υL(S),υL(S),…,υL(S))T,BR=(υL(S),υL(S),…,υL(S))T,A-1=(1/2n-2)(a'ij)n×n, and a'ij=-/(n+1)(i≠j or n/(n+1) if i=j. Then, the auxiliary optimization mathematical model is extended so that it satisfies some conditions x(N)=υ(N) and hereby all players' interval-valued payoffs x'i=[x'Li, x'Ri] (i=1,2,…,n) are solved, which can be determined by the analytical formula[X'L,X'R]=[X'L+(υL(N)-xLi)e/n,XR+(υR(N)-xRi)e/n]. Finally, a numerical example of the dispatch coalition problem is used to conduct the validation and comparison analysis, which has shown that the proposed models and method are of the validity, the applicability, and the superiority. The models and method proposed in this paper can effectively avoid the magnification of uncertainty resulted from the subtraction of intervals and provide a new theoretical angle and suitable tool for solving interval-valued cooperative games. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dual Channel Price and Service Competition after Manufacturer Introduced Direct Online Channel FAN Xiao-jun, LIU Yan 2016, 24 (7):  143-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.017 Abstract ( 1526 )   PDF (1113KB) ( 1276 )   Save In order to weaken the dominant status of traditional retailer in channel bargain, the manufacturer tries to introduce direct online channel to compete with the traditional retailer. Aiming at the channel structure of Retailer Stackelberg, the competitive game theory is applied to analyze the price and service competition between manufacturer and retailer in the dual channels mixed of manufacturer direct online channel and traditional retailing channel. It considers the strategic value of service when it analyses dual channel competition, and divides all consumers into the high service preference consumers and the low service preference consumers. The results show that the strategic effect of online channel introduced by the manufacturer will succeed only when the product web-fit is high enough. The introduction of online channel will increase the manufacturer profit. The larger the product web-fit is, the manufacturer profit will be bigger. When the product web-fit is high enough, online channel can encourage the retailer to provide high level service. The larger the product web-fit is, the retail service level will be higher. As a result, the effect of double winners between the manufacturer and retailer will come true. The manufacturer profit and retailer profit will increase with the improvement of the scale of high service preference consumer and the marginal utility of service. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Weight Adjustment Method in 360-degree Evaluation System DING Tao, WU Hua-qing, LIANG Liang 2016, 24 (7):  149-154.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.018 Abstract ( 1677 )   PDF (788KB) ( 1098 )   Save In this paper, the 360-degree feedback concept in performance evaluation is examined. Compared with the traditional information feedback system featured a single source of information, 360-degree feedback system is highly credible and effective. Since with this evaluation system, staffs' performance can be fully assessed by all related evaluators, such as supervisors, subordinates, peers and themselves. However in practice, evaluators tend to overestimate themselves while underestimate others, or even there will be a strategic evaluation leading to a assessment deviation. Moreover, weights assigned to different evaluators in practice are always fixed, which makes it difficult to adjust all kinds of bias. To address this issue, the conventional 360-degree feedback method is improved. Firstly, a 360-degree sealed scoring evaluation model is constructed to obtain and combine information from multiple evaluators. To ensure a uniform scoring scale from different evaluators, a standardized parameter Kj* is introduced, which is entirely ignored in existing researches. Then, consistency indices are designed to depict the deviation degree between self-evaluation and peers-evaluation. Based on consistency analysis, a reasonable weight adjustment method is proposed, in which a smaller weight will be assigned to inconsistent scores. In fact, the weight adjusted method is a kind of mechanism design, which aims to bound strategic evaluation or reduce deviations caused by psychological factors. Finally, the approach is applied to rank employees' contribution, and its effectiveness is demonstrated by comparisons with conventional 360-degree method. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Institutional Investors, Agency Costs and Company Value——Empirical Study Based on Stochastic Frontier Model and Threshold Regression WANG Jin-le, SHI Yong-dong 2016, 24 (7):  155-162.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.019 Abstract ( 1174 )   PDF (973KB) ( 1255 )   Save With the rise of shareholder activism, institutional investors as big shareholders often choose to take the initiative to participate in corporate governance in order to standardize the organization structure and management behavior, so as to alleviate the agency conflicts, reduce agency cost, improve corporate governance efficiency. Obviously, whether China's institutional investors can play a positive role in reducing agency cost and increasing company value is becoming an important research topic. In this paper, the quarterly data of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock Exchange is chosen as samples from 2007 to 2012. From the perspective of agency costs, stochastic frontier model is used to examine the impact of China's institutional investors on the company value. The analysis finds that with the increase of institutional investors holdings, the company value increased significantly, but it also shows an inverse-L-shaped relationship between the two. Based on this finding, panel threshold model is further adopted to search the threshold value over which the institutional investors' positive impact on company value shows a structural adjustment. The results find that when the proportion of institutional ownership exceeds about 12%, the impact of institutional investors on company value will be greatly diminished. Meanwhile, the evidence supporting the point of statement that open-end funds have more positive and significant influence on company value than closed-end funds is provided. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination with Quantity Flexibility Contract under the Scene of Multi-factor Disturbance LIU Lang, SHI Wen-qiang, FENG Liang-qing 2016, 24 (7):  163-176.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.07.020 Abstract ( 1379 )   PDF (1067KB) ( 788 )   Save In this paper,inherent laws of two level supply chains being coordinated to deal with emergencies under multi-factor disturbance are explored. With regard to two situations of the market's price,fixed and stochastic, the emergency quantity flexibility contract is used to find the optimal ordering and pricing strategy to realize the supply chain coordination. First, it is assumed that the elastic coefficients are constants and analyze the coordination problem under three scenes——when there is no emergency, there are emergencies making the price fluctuate and there are emergencies not making the price fluctuate;Second, the elastic coefficients are turned to variables to find the inherent constraints of achieving supply chain coordination; At last, examples are used to verify the emergency quantity flexibility contract with stochastic price above by simulation and analyze the influence of elastic coefficients' change on related elements of the supply chain. The results indicate that:(1) the basic laws of realizing supply chain coordination under quantity flexibility contract are the same whenever the market price is fixed or stochastic. If only the wholesale price is adjusted appropriately, the uncoordinated supply chain can restore coordination; (2) when the contract elastic coefficients α and β are fixed,there exists the exclusive ordering and pricing strategy;(3) If elastic coefficients change, the only ordering strategy of the supply chain doesn't exist, but the exclusive purchasing strategy can be obtained. The change of elastic coefficients at the time of centralized decision making exert no influence on the optimal purchasing quantity, supplying quantity, the retailer's expected gains, the expected gains of the whole supply chain, apart from the uplink elasticity coefficient α having effect on the retailer's optimal ordering quantity. Explanation of the example data:(1) table 1 indicates that whether the market price is fixed or stochastic as well as the demand expands or shrinks, when felicitous amendment is made to the wholesale price, the uncoordinated supply chain can restore coordination; (2) table 2-7 illustrates that when the market price is fixed, the change of upside elastic coefficients will only affect the optimal order quantity (q*), having no effect on the retailer's expected purchases N(q)*, the supplier's optimal supply,the retailer's expected profits and the proceeds of the whole supply chain regardless of the demand expanding or shrinking. Besides, the downside elastic coefficients' change exerts no influence on the five elements referred above, and the optimal supply of the supplier is greater than the retailer's expected purchasing quantities (i.e. Q*>N(q)*); (3)table 11-13 shows that the results obtained under stochastic price and shrunken demand is just the same as the results when the market price is fixed; (4) table 8-10 reveals elastic coefficients α and β will change when the market price is stochastic and the demand shrinks, and the results are consistent with previous three cases except the optimal supply being equal to the retailer's expected purchasing quantity (i.e. Q*=N(q)*). Theoretical results are verified by case data. Inspiration is provided for the research that adopts other contracts to respond to price-stochastic or price-fixed emergencies, and foundation is laid for the further use of quantity flexibility contract to study more sophisticated emergency supply chain coordination problems under the condition of asymmetric information, different risk preferences of the participants and so on. References | Related Articles | Metrics