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Chinese Journal of Management Science

Chinese Journal of Management Science >

2025 , Vol. 33 >Issue 6: 140 - 150

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1662

Research on the Timing of Online Public Opinion Intervention Considering the Psychological Factors of Netizens

  • Mingzhu Wang ,
  • Linjiang Guo ,
  • Yijun Liu
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  • 1.Institutes of Science and Development，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100190，China
    2.School of Public Policy and Management，University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China

Received date: 2022-07-27

  Revised date: 2023-02-24

  Online published: 2025-07-04

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Abstract

The timing of online public opinion intervention is crucial for the government in maintaining its public image， ensuring social stability， and gaining public trust. Existing research provides references for the government's control over the timing of intervention in online public opinion. However， in today's complex online environment， the internal factors among netizens cannot be ignored when considering their impact on the spread of online public opinion， especially their psychological factors. The SEIR model is built， taking into account the role of netizens' psychology in determining the timing of online public opinion intervention. It introduces a psychological tolerance parameter and investigates the impact of government intervention timing on the spread of public opinion. Through simulation experiments， it simulates the changes in the spread status of online public opinion in a scale-free network under different government intervention timings and different levels of psychological tolerance. The simulation results suggest that the timing of online public opinion intervention is not necessarily “the earlier， the better，” and the optimal intervention timing should be selected with consideration of psychological tolerance. Additionally， public opinion data are collected hourly during the outbreak periods of two events： “The student's fatal fall at Chengdu No. 49 Middle School” and “The destruction of the protective forest in Dunhuang's thousands of acres of desert.” It uses these case studies to validate the accuracy of the model through simulation. The limitations of the “fixed transfer probability” assumption in classical dynamics of communication is addressed and the impact of netizens' psychological factors on the effectiveness of government intervention is described by setting relevant mechanisms. The research findings hold significant importance for relevant authorities in conducting scientifically and reasonably governed online public opinion management.

Key words： public opinion; government intervention; epidemic model; timing of intervention; psychological tolerance

Cite this article

Mingzhu Wang , Linjiang Guo , Yijun Liu . Research on the Timing of Online Public Opinion Intervention Considering the Psychological Factors of Netizens[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025 , 33(6) : 140 -150 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1662

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