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Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Bank Liquidity Risk from the Perspective of Macro Liquidity Tightening

  • Yulei Rao ,
  • Hongbing Ouyang ,
  • Minchun Han ,
  • Zihong Wang
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  • School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China

Received date: 2023-10-16

  Revised date: 2024-02-06

  Online published: 2025-04-29

Abstract

Under pressure from successive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed due to maturity mismatch problems in liquidity management, affecting the global financial system. The tightening of macro liquidity has added to the pressure of micro liquidity risk outbreaks. In this paper, the competitive equilibrium conditions are mapped for bank liquidity holding decisions into a regression model, corresponding to the connotation of the interbank network structure to a spatial econometric model that describes the implications of interactions between entities in a competitive equilibrium. Using the listed banks from 2010 to 2021 as samples, the transmission and accumulation mechanism of liquidity risk changes resulting from the aggregation of micro-level decision-making behaviors combining spatial econometric model and minimum density algorithm is elucidated. Additionally, it employs structural estimation to identify the contagion effect within the bank network.The research results demonstrate three main conclusions. Firstly, The source of liquidity funds obtained by banks is externally dependent due to the existence of bank network. Secondly, the contribution of banks to systemic risk is influenced by the magnitude of exogenous shocks and the mechanism of network propagation, with the risk of contagion from network propagation being the main source. This network propagation risk is the result of the gradually decaying impact of random error shocks in the form of a covariance structure on the bank in question. Thirdly, Against the backdrop of China’s deleveraging policy, as bank network density declines, the contagion effect of liquidity risk among banks exhibits a downward trend and the topology of bank networks shows a trend toward decentralization,while individual bank liquidity risks increase. To effectively prevent and mitigate systemic risks, it is imperative to address the liquidity risk management challenges arising from macro-level liquidity adjustment policies for micro entities. It is crucial to establish an integrated early warning mechanism by building a framework system of macro liquidity volatility affecting financial institutions' decision making. This necessitates enhancing banks' capacity for emergency liquidity risk management and bolstering monitoring, early warning systems, and control mechanisms pertaining to liquidity risk in banking institutions.

Cite this article

Yulei Rao , Hongbing Ouyang , Minchun Han , Zihong Wang . Research on the Contagion Mechanism of Bank Liquidity Risk from the Perspective of Macro Liquidity Tightening[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025 , 33(4) : 24 -35 . DOI: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1706

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