碳交易机制下废弃物发电项目柔性投资决策研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2029

Abstract

Abstract:

Promoting investment and construction of waste-to-energy （WtE） projects are an important direction for the future low-carbon development. The China Certified Emission Reduction （CCER） mechanism allows WtE projects to obtain additional benefits of carbon emission reduction after filing， which brings new opportunities for such projects. However， the high volatility of CCER prices will further increase the uncertainty of operation environment， which makes the development of WtE projects face challenges. Therefore， it is of great significance to investigate the influence of CCER mechanism on WtE projects decision-makings. In this paper， a flexible investment decision of WtE projects under the CCER mechanism is studied. The flexible investment decision allows decision-makers to flexibly choose the optimal investment time within an effective investment period. A real option model with the least squares Monte Carlo simulation is developed to evaluate the value of flexibility. It can also help decision-makers to choose the optimal investment time. The proposed model compares favorably to traditional real option models （e.g.， the binomial lattices） by efficiently analyzing multiple uncertainties （i.e.， electricity price， CCER price， unit investment cost and electricity generation efficiency）. Unlike the existing real option models that are mostly applied to solar energy and wind energy， it focuses on the optimization problem of WtE projects. The applicability of the proposed model is tested using a real WtE projects in Shaanxi， China. Results show that the existence of CCER mechanism can significantly increase the value of WtE projects. The project value with flexible investment decision is higher than that of the fixed investment decision， which further verifies the important of considering flexibility in WtE development processes. In addition， the sensitivity analysis shows that with the increase in parameters like the subsidy proportion， the CCER price， the upper/lower bound of carbon price， the project value of the flexible investment decision will be increased accordingly. These results may help government agencies and decision-makers understand the flexible decision-making of WtE projects under the CCER mechanism.

Key words: waste-to-energy, flexible investment decision-making, real options, China’s certified emission reduction

CLC Number:

F272.3

Junfei Hu, Huanyue Chen. Flexible Investment Decision of Waste-to-energy Projects under Carbon Trading Mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(2): 320-331.

Figures/Tables 9

参数	描述	初始值	来源与备注
$D e 0$	市场电价	0.33 元/千瓦时	陕西政府部门发布的电价文件^[21]
$u e$	电价漂移率	0.02	根据陕西电价的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[3，22]
$φ e$	电价波动率	0.01	根据陕西电价的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[3，22]
$U i c 0$	单位投资成本	20000 元/千瓦	根据陕西现有焚烧型废弃物发电项目估算^[23，24]
$u c$	单位投资成本漂移项	-0.03	根据全国2005-2022年焚烧型废弃物发电项目单位投资成本的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[25]
$φ c$	单位投资成本波动率	0.08	根据全国2005-2022年焚烧型废弃物发电项目单位投资成本的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[25]
$P g 0$	单位发电效率	5300 千瓦时/千瓦	根据陕西现有焚烧型废弃物发电项目估算^[23，24]
$u g$	单位发电效率漂移项	0.02	根据全国2005-2022年焚烧型废弃物发电项目单位发电效率的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[25]
$φ g$	单位发电效率波动率	0.02	根据全国2005-2022年焚烧型废弃物发电项目单位发电效率的历史数据，通过极大似然估计法估算^[25]
$P c 0$	CCER价格	40 元/吨	复旦大学发布的CCER碳价指数^[26]
$u P c$	CCER价格漂移项	0.02	基于Zhang等的研究^[22]
$φ P c$	CCER价格波动率	0.03	基于Zhang等的研究^[22]

参数	描述	数值	来源与备注
$U o c$	单位运维成本	0.35 元/千瓦时	基于焚烧型废弃物发电项目进行估算^[27]
$T f$	垃圾处理费	16.5 元/吨	由西安市发展与改革委员会确定^[28]
$T G$	处理垃圾的总量	365×1000 吨/年	假设垃圾处理能力为1000吨/天 $T G$ 和 $I q$ 都是根据真实的案例估算^[18]
$I q$	装机容量	20兆瓦	假设垃圾处理能力为1000吨/天 $T G$ 和 $I q$ 都是根据真实的案例估算^[18]
$F i t$	上网电价	0.65 元/千瓦时	参数 $F i t$ 和 $λ$ 是根据国家发展和改革委员会文件^[29]
$λ$	电力转换率	280千瓦时/吨	参数 $F i t$ 和 $λ$ 是根据国家发展和改革委员会文件^[29]
$E M i B a s e$	碳减排基准线	550g/千瓦时	$E M i B a s e$ 和 $E M i W T E$ 都是基于Zhang等的研究^[22]
$E M i W T E$	项目排放量	1 g/千瓦时	$E M i B a s e$ 和 $E M i W T E$ 都是基于Zhang等的研究^[22]
$r v a t$	增值税率	0	$r v a t$ 和 $r i n c$ 是根据国家税务局发布的文件^[30，31]
$r i n c$	企业所得税率	25%	$r v a t$ 和 $r i n c$ 是根据国家税务局发布的文件^[30，31]
$C S S$	连接补贴费	0.01 元/千瓦时	基于He和Lin的研究^[19]
$π$	贴现率	0.08	一般贴现率
$T$	投资期	10	假设基准年为2022年，有效投资期为2022-2032年
$L$	运营期	25	焚烧型废弃物发电项目设施的平均使用寿命约为25年

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场景	策略	最优项目价值（万元）	最优投资时间（年）
无碳交易	固定投资决策	-1667.4	放弃项目
无碳交易	柔性投资决策	4455.3	推迟投资至2030年
有碳交易	固定投资决策	1301.2	立即投资
有碳交易	柔性投资决策	6314.5	推迟投资至2029年

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Flexible Investment Decision of Waste-to-energy Projects under Carbon Trading Mechanism

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