要素短缺、财政支农与农业经济波动效应

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1575

Abstract

Abstract:

The diversification of production factors from agriculture intensifies the risk of the economic system， and the policy of agricultural support and protection can promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Based on the difference of urban and rural factor endowment and the integrated circulation mechanism， a DSGE model of urban and rural integration is constructed to analyze the impact effect of factor shortage and agricultural support policies on agriculture， as well as the spillover effect of economic system. The findings are as follows：（1） the reduction of labor supply will restrain employment and consumption， increase production cost and inflation level， investment stimulus effect is not significant， and the agricultural sector is consistent with the overall fluctuation trend of the economy， the former fluctuation range is larger and the duration is longer. （2） The reduction of arable land supply will accelerate the non-agricultural labor force， increase agricultural production costs， inhibit agricultural development in the short term， increase total employment and output， and reduce wages； Crowding out household consumption， stimulating agricultural investment， and exacerbating inflation are consistent with the overall fluctuation of the economy， which is more volatile. （3） Agricultural production subsidies improve factor allocation efficiency and promote economic growth by improving factor allocation structure. Fiscal expenditure on agricultural production has a positive impact on economic fundamentals and has the same impact on the agricultural sector and the overall economy； Agricultural technological innovation subsidies accelerate labor leaving agriculture， stimulate labor vitality， and have a positive impact on agriculture and the economy as a whole， the latter has a strong fluctuation range and duration. The shortage of factor endowments will restrain employment and consumption markets， raise production costs， and exacerbate systemic economic fluctuations. Agricultural support and protection policies can improve the efficiency of factor allocation， promote agricultural development， achieve “grain storage and technology”， and produce positive spillover effects on the economic system.

Key words: factor shortage, productivity subsidies, DSGE model, model evaluation

CLC Number:

F321.0

Zhenqing Liu,Shen Geng. Factor Supply, Productive Subsidy and Fluctuation of Agricultural Economy in China:Based on Urban-Rural Integration DSGE Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(8): 74-83.

Figures/Tables 7

参数	先验		后验
参数	分布	均值	均值	95%置信区间
$σ c$	Gamma	3.5	3.7832	（2.2679，5.2988）
$σ n$	Gamma	1.3	1.3733	（0.8923，1.8561）
$ω c$	Normal	2.0	1.9163	（1.6777，2.1549）
$ω n$	Normal	2.5	2.6343	（2.6181，2.6505）
$φ a$	Normal	4.0	3.8105	（3.6398，3.9813）
$φ n$	Normal	4.0	4.1513	（4.0360，4.2667）
$? a$	Normal	4.5	5.1808	（5.0716，5.2907）
$? n$	Normal	4.5	3.7723	（3.7636，3.7795）
$λ a$	Normal	1.5	1.7524	（1.7327，1.7721）
$λ n$	Normal	1.5	1.8354	（1.8157，1.8552）
$? n$	Normal	1.2	1.1025	（1.0834，1.1216）
$? a$	Normal	1.2	1.0713	（1.0522，1.0904）
$s a$	Normal	3.5	3.6258	（3.6004，3.6512）
$s n$	Normal	3.5	3.3417	（3.3163，3.3671）
$γ π$	Beta	1.5	1.7231	（1.6837，1.7673）
$γ Y$	Beta	0.6	0.7525	（0.7366，0.7679）
$ρ r$	Beta	0.8	0.7543	（0.7372，0.7756）
$γ g$	Beta	0.2	0.1981	（0.1763，0.2207）
$γ τ$	Beta	0.25	0.2643	（0.2497，0.2789）
$ρ g$	Beta	0.65	0.6832	（0.6720，0.6944）
$ρ d$	Beta	0.75	0.7368	（0.7217，0.7405）
$γ d$	Beta	0.25	0.2796	（0.2541，0.3034）
$ρ n$	Beta	0.8	0.8269	（0.7724，0.8753）
$ρ l$	Beta	0.8	0.7216	（0.7109，0.7321）
$σ e, n$	InvGam2	0.1	0.7432	（0.7307，0.7517）
$σ a$	InvGam2	0.1	0.7465	（0.7411，0.7583）
$σ g$	InvGam2	0.1	0.0943	（0.0912，0.0974）
$σ τ$	InvGam2	0.1	0.4536	（0.4058，0.5021）
$σ r$	InvGam2	0.1	0.0168	（0.0143，0. 0189）
$σ l$	InvGam2	0.1	0.5147	（0.4617，0.5684）

变量	实际值		模拟值
变量	均值	标准差	均值	标准差
$π t$	-0.0201	0.010	-0.0213	0.097
$Y t$	0.1023	0.8545	0.0974	0.8612
$I t$	0.1514	0.5545	0.1517	0.5536
$Y a, t$	0.0854	0.1056	0.08541	0.1046
$G t$	-0.0437	0.5345	-0.0446	0.5518
$Y n, t$	0.0438	0.1566	0.0435	0. 1729

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Factor Supply, Productive Subsidy and Fluctuation of Agricultural Economy in China:Based on Urban-Rural Integration DSGE Model

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