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主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
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Table of Content

    25 August 2024, Volume 32 Issue 8 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renminbi Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS Model
    Xinyu Wu,Haibin Xie,Chaoqun Ma
    2024, 32 (8):  1-14.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1654
    Abstract ( 363 )   HTML ( 42 )   PDF (726KB) ( 462 )   Save

    Financial volatility modeling and forecasting has always been a hot topic in financial econometrics, due to its great importance for derivative pricing, asset allocation and risk management. Typically, GARCH model is used to describe the dynamics of financial volatility. However, the GARCH model uses squared return to measure volatility, ignoring the information of intraday price movements. An alternative approach for measuring volatility is to employ the intraday range, which is calculated using the intraday high and low prices. Apparently, the intraday range makes full use of the intraday price information (extreme value information), which is a more efficient volatility estimator than the squared return volatility estimator.A classical model for describing the dynamics of the intraday range is the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model, which produces more accurate volatility forecasts than the return-based GARCH model. Despite the empirical success of the range-based CARR model, it cannot capture the impact of macroeconomic variables (macroeconomic information) on financial volatility. In recent years, the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) keeps rising, due to a series of events including the US-China trade war and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Intuitively, high EPU may affect investors' investment decisions and hence financial market. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, which is of great relevance for investors and policy-makers and would have a close relation to EPU. As the currency of the world's second largest economy, renminbi plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Since the implementation of renminbi exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the renminbi exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations. Accurate prediction of the renminbi exchange rate volatility has become increasingly important. To our knowledge, there are few studies investigating the impact of EPU on the renminbi exchange rate volatility.Inspired by the return-based GARCH-MIDAS model, this paper extends the classical range-based CARR model to the range-based CARR-MIDAS model to model the renminbi exchange rate volatility. The model framework explores the intraday extreme value information and allows the low-frequency macroeconomic variable (macroeconomic information) such as EPU directly impacts the volatility via the long-run component of volatility and the flexible MIDAS structure.Using the monthly global EPU index and daily US Dollar against Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate data, the impact and predictive ability of the EPU on USD/CNY exchange rate volatility are investigated relying on the range-based CARR-MIDAS model with the EPU (CARR-MIDAS-EPU). The empirical results show that the EPU has a significant positive impact on the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. That is, an increase in the EPU level predicts higher level of the long-run volatility of USD/CNY exchange rate. The range-based CARR-MIDAS-EPU model produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the USD/CNY exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and GARCH-MIDAS-EPU model as well as the range-based CARR model and CARR-MIDAS model, for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This finding suggests that the range and EPU contain valuable information for forecasting USD/CNY exchange rate volatility. The robustness analysis based on the alternative global EPU index as well as the out-of-sample forecasting windows further supports the above conclusion.

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    Corporate Social Responsibility and Stock Price Extreme Volatility Risk: Evidence from Enterprise Participation in Poverty Governance
    Jianying Li,Weiqi Liu,Dongliang Yuan
    2024, 32 (8):  15-24.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2626
    Abstract ( 179 )   HTML ( 10 )   PDF (843KB) ( 281 )   Save

    The active participation in poverty governance and the fulfillment of corporate social responsibility for listed companies are not only a positive response to the country’s strategic poverty alleviation policies but also an important channel to enhance external perceptions, market reputation, and long-term corporate value. Based on corporate participation in poverty governance, a social responsibility activity with Chinese characteristics, the impact and mechanism of corporate social responsibility on the systemic risk of stock price extreme volatility are explored, both theoretically and empirically. At the theoretical level, an equilibrium model including the household sector and production sector in an economy is presented to analyze the impact of corporate social responsibility activities on stock price extreme volatility risk. The model predicts that socially responsible corporates have lower extreme volatility risk. At the empirical level, Chinese listed companies that participated in poverty alleviation from 2016 to 2019 are used to examine the effect of corporate participation in poverty governance on stock price extreme volatility risk. The empirical results show that the higher the participation of listed companies in poverty governance, the lower the risk of extreme stock price fluctuations in the future. The result holds after we account for potential endogeneity and conduct a series of robustness tests. Furthermore, it is found that the participation of listed companies in poverty governance reduces stock price extreme volatility risk through reputation effect and information effect. The findings in this study enrich the formation mechanism and analysis paradigm of stock price extreme volatility risk and provide evidence support for effectively preventing systemic risk in financial markets. It also has important theoretical and practical significance for the economic consequences of corporate participation in poverty governance.

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    Stock Index Prediction Based on LSTM Network and Text Sentiment Analysis
    Xiaojian Yu,Guopeng Liu,Jianlin Liu,Weilin Xiao
    2024, 32 (8):  25-35.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0084
    Abstract ( 472 )   HTML ( 45 )   PDF (868KB) ( 584 )   Save

    Investment decision-making can be a complex process, influenced by various factors, including investor behavior preferences. Therefore, it's important to understand and capture investor sentiment for predicting future changes in the stock market trend. In this regard, machine learning algorithms can be helpful in analyzing investor sentiment in the financial market. It aims to construct a predictive model for stock indices using an LSTM network and text sentiment analysis in this paper.To begin with, a web crawler program is used to collect text comments on individual stocks in the East Money Stock Bar. The text data are analyzed using the SVM sentiment classification algorithm to construct a market sentiment index that reflects investor sentiment. Additionally, the LSTM deep learning network is used to extract the features of the market sentiment index and make short-term predictions on the SSE 50 index.Various traditional time series analysis models and machine learning models are compared. The results show that the LSTM neural network has higher accuracy and precision in financial time series prediction. After incorporating market sentiment features, the accuracy and precision of the LSTM network prediction results can be improved. This indicates that investor market sentiment is highly effective and applicable for market index prediction. It is also found that error correction of the LSTM network prediction results can effectively optimize the prediction results.Overall, a new method is provided for understanding investor sentiment and predicting future changes in the stock market trend. It is hoped that our research results can provide useful reference and guidance for financial investors and analysts.

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    Research on the Third-party Market Cooperation and Stability Strategy Based on the Perspective of Financing Mode
    Zuankuo Liu,Yu Li,Shouwei Li,Kaixuan Di,Changyu Liu,Rongkun Liu
    2024, 32 (8):  36-49.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.2523
    Abstract ( 179 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (1034KB) ( 233 )   Save

    Taking Chinese enterprises, enterprises in developed countries and enterprises in the third market countries as the main body, a tripartite evolutionary game model is constructed based on the portfolio theory of investment factors, and four third-party market financing cooperation modes divided by the strategic alliance theory correspond to eight strategies of the game model, describing the third-party market cooperation body and financing cooperation mode. The key factors are explored that affect the choice of the third-party market cooperation mode, the interest relationship between the subjects is analyzed, and then the financing game behavior and strategy choice of the third-party game subjects in different stages of cooperation are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is simulated. It is found that:(1)In the initial stage of cooperation, the financing cooperation mode is chosen as two parties undertake construction and one party contributes, the participation of Chinese enterprises and enterprises in developed countries is low, and the capacity incentive, the advantages and disadvantages of the host state-owned business environment and the risk allocation mechanism are the key factors affecting the game results in this stage; (2)In the stable cooperation stage, the financing mode is selected as one party invests, one party undertakes construction, and one party assists. The incentive of knowledge and technology spillover from developed country enterprises to Chinese enterprises and the negotiation cost of active participation of developed country enterprises under the low strength guidance strategy of Chinese enterprises are the key factors affecting the game results in this stage;(3) In the stage of strategic cooperation, the financing cooperation mode has reached the ideal state of joint investment and joint construction, but it is still negatively affected by the negotiation cost and information asymmetry risk under the active strategy, especially the enterprises in the third-party market countries are more sensitive to cost and information. The model reference and stable strategies for third-party market cooperation at different stages are provided. At the same time, it provides a practical paradigm for the government and enterprises to participate in third-party market cooperation, and also provides countermeasures and suggestions for building high-quality the Belt and Road and improving the third-party market financing cooperation mechanism. Third-party market cooperation conforms to the trend of globalization and meets the common demands of the development of all countries. However, the unprecedented changes in the past century have had a great impact on the world economy. The threshold of enterprise cross-border project financing risk premium has been raised, external financing costs have increased, and the lack of common information between entities has become increasingly serious, which further aggravates the risk aversion perception of cross-border investment by various enterprise entities. Third-party market cooperation entities have low willingness to invest and finance, and the problem of weak participation is gradually highlighted. The financing problem determines the form of division and combination of cooperation participants, and is the key issue to explore the third-party market cooperation.

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    Asset Pricing Based on the Optimal Idiosyncratic Return Factor
    Xuanming Ni,Tiantian Zheng,Huimin Zhao,Kangping Wu
    2024, 32 (8):  50-60.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1429
    Abstract ( 106 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (650KB) ( 166 )   Save

    Starting from the idiosyncratic returns of the classical factor model, an idiosyncratic return factor is constructed by optimizing the portfolio in the residual space to identify the missing information in the benchmark model, so as to price the idiosyncratic returns under the benchmark and improve the benchmark. Furthermore, the pricing ability of the extended factor is proved through mathematical derivation. Next, based on 6 factor datasets of A shares from 1995-01 to 2022-11 and 4 factor datasets of the US stocks from 1963-07 to 2022-10, the idiosyncratic return factor is added to three-factor, four-factor, and five-factor models, and the pricing ability of the expanded models is compared with their benchmarks, the mean-variance efficient (MVE) model, and the principal component analysis (PCA) model. The empirical results show that after adding the idiosyncratic return factor, the GRS statistic and t-statistic are greatly reduced, and the pricing ability of the original model is significantly improved, better than the MVE model and the PCA model in most cases. These results hold both in-sample and out-of-sample, for A-share and the US stock markets, indicating the robustness and adaptability of the idiosyncratic return factor.

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    Optimal Personal Insurance Purchase Strategy under Health Shocks
    Pu Liao,Hongqi Yang,Xinyu Huang
    2024, 32 (8):  61-73.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1879
    Abstract ( 100 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1272KB) ( 270 )   Save

    Insurance is a main measure for residents to deal with risks. With the arrival of the aging tide and the post-pandemic era, residents pay more and more attention to the aftermath of health shocks, leading to the increase of insurance demand and new requirements in terms of the purchase strategy of personal insurance. Therefore, it is worthwhile to investigate into the insurance decisions of residents against health risk, for the purpose of improving residents' quality of life and meeting people's aspiration for a better life. A life-cycle model is established to study the optimal purchase strategy of personal insurance under health shocks. Three kinds of insurance contracts are assumed to be available in the model: life insurance, pension insurance and critical illness insurance. A health risk model is constructed to profile the transition probabilities and paths of residents' health status. A stochastic income model is constructed to reflect the long-term trend of wage income, as well as the impact of health shocks and other random factors on wage income. Based on the principle of maximizing expected lifetime utility, residents' optimal consumption-saving decisions and personal purchase strategy solutions under health shocks can be achieved. Numerical methods are applied to solve the optimal consumption-saving decision and personal insurance purchase strategy of residents under health risks. The parameters are set mainly by referring to the common assumptions in existing literature, and based on statistical data which are obtained from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), National Health Commission of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of China, etc. Comparing the optimal consumption-saving decisions of residents with and without insurance, the results show that insurance will significantly reduce the saving level of residents and increase the consumption level after retirement. In addition, the optimal purchase strategy of personal insurance show that residents' insurance expenditure in the working period is U-shaped, i.e. residents tend to purchase health insurance in the early working period to prevent bankruptcy caused by health shock, and purchase annuity insurance and life insurance in the late working period to guarantee the living expenses after retirement and satisfy the motive of leaving a legacy respectively. Based on our findings, suggestions on residents’ personal insurance purchase strategy are provided. First, young residents should purchase health insurance to manage health risks and avoid bankruptcy. Second, provided that the savings rate is significantly lower than the annuity pricing rate, residents should annuitize most of their assets and purchase life insurance to meet their bequest motive.

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    Factor Supply, Productive Subsidy and Fluctuation of Agricultural Economy in China:Based on Urban-Rural Integration DSGE Model
    Zhenqing Liu,Shen Geng
    2024, 32 (8):  74-83.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1575
    Abstract ( 90 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (846KB) ( 189 )   Save

    The diversification of production factors from agriculture intensifies the risk of the economic system, and the policy of agricultural support and protection can promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Based on the difference of urban and rural factor endowment and the integrated circulation mechanism, a DSGE model of urban and rural integration is constructed to analyze the impact effect of factor shortage and agricultural support policies on agriculture, as well as the spillover effect of economic system. The findings are as follows: (1) the reduction of labor supply will restrain employment and consumption, increase production cost and inflation level, investment stimulus effect is not significant, and the agricultural sector is consistent with the overall fluctuation trend of the economy, the former fluctuation range is larger and the duration is longer. (2) The reduction of arable land supply will accelerate the non-agricultural labor force, increase agricultural production costs, inhibit agricultural development in the short term, increase total employment and output, and reduce wages; Crowding out household consumption, stimulating agricultural investment, and exacerbating inflation are consistent with the overall fluctuation of the economy, which is more volatile. (3) Agricultural production subsidies improve factor allocation efficiency and promote economic growth by improving factor allocation structure. Fiscal expenditure on agricultural production has a positive impact on economic fundamentals and has the same impact on the agricultural sector and the overall economy; Agricultural technological innovation subsidies accelerate labor leaving agriculture, stimulate labor vitality, and have a positive impact on agriculture and the economy as a whole, the latter has a strong fluctuation range and duration. The shortage of factor endowments will restrain employment and consumption markets, raise production costs, and exacerbate systemic economic fluctuations. Agricultural support and protection policies can improve the efficiency of factor allocation, promote agricultural development, achieve “grain storage and technology”, and produce positive spillover effects on the economic system.

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    Method of Locating Racks in Mobile-Rack Warehousing System
    Zheng Wang,Peng Lu,Xiangpei Hu
    2024, 32 (8):  84-94.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0110
    Abstract ( 147 )   HTML ( 11 )   PDF (774KB) ( 272 )   Save

    The increasing e-commerce customer orders bring great challenges to the operation efficiency of warehouses. To handle the customer orders each of which usually has multiple small-sized items, a kind of storage system with mobile racks is gradually booming. In this kind of warehouses, racks can be moved anywhere and a fleet of robots are employed to carry racks to picking stations, where human workers pick items from racks for customer orders. After the items are picked, robots will carry racks back to its location and go to carry other racks until all customer orders are picked. In the picking process, the time spent by robots in moving the rack placed in different positions is very important for the picking efficiency. And the moving time depends on the locations of racks. If a rack that is frequently used is located far away from the picking station, much time would be spent by robots carrying it to picking station, and the picking efficiency would be obviously low. If a rack is often carried after another to the picking station, they should be located close to each other; otherwise, robots have to travel a long way between them. Therefore, the rack location scheme directly affects the traveling time, as well as the picking efficiency.In order to reduce the traveling time of robots as much as possible, this paper studies the location problem of mobile racks. The problem is different from the storage location problem in a traditional warehouse with fixed racks. The traditional storage location problem studies the locations of goods in racks. While the problem of this paper is focused on the locations of racks in a warehouse and each rack has been loaded with a set of items. The problem is difficult because the using frequency of racks and the relationship of racks are closely related to the pattern that customers ordered items. How to reveal the using frequency and the relationship of racks remains a basic and key problem for locating racks. Racks cannot be well located if historical customer orders are not well studied.To handle the rack location problem, customer orders are analyzed and an integer-programming model (Model 1) to generate the using frequency (popularity degree) and the relationship (relevance degree) of racks is constructed. Based on the degrees of rack popularity and relationship, a bi-objective integer-programming model (Model 2) that successively minimizes the traveling distances of heavy-loaded robots and non-loaded robots is built. The two objectives of this model can be solved one after another by using an integer-programming solver. Due to the NP-hardness of Model 2 with the second objective, a tabu search heuristic is developed to handle the real-world large-sized problems. To solve the rack location problem, a three-stage algorithm is proposed. In the first stage, the algorithm obtains the degrees of rack popularity and relationship by solving Model 1 using a solver for integer-programming models; and in the second and third, it solves Model 2 with the first and the second objectives using the solver and the tabu search heuristic respectively.The proposed algorithm is then implemented and tested using real-world customer orders. It is first compared to an integer-programming solver (Gurobi) which is used to solve all the models on small-sized instances. The experimental results show that, for the small-sized cases, our algorithm can almost find all the optimal solutions, and at the same time spends much less time than Gurobi. Then, an algorithm is compared to a representative algorithm in the literature, the partheno-genetic algorithm which is used to handle Model 2 with the second model, on large-sized instances. Results show that our algorithm outperforms the genetic algorithm in both solution quality and running time.Finally, a sensitivity analysis on the number of item types in the rack is made. It is found from the analysis that the racks with more item types are generally nearer to the picking station than those with less item types. This founding is also affected by various factors, e.g. customer order structure and the combination of item types in racks. The finding provides managerial insights for decision makers of such warehouses.

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    Interval Multi-objective Optimal Scheduling for Steelmaking-continuous Casting with Processing Time Uncertainty
    Tieke Li,Yixuan Su,Wenxin Zhang,Bailin Wang
    2024, 32 (8):  95-106.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2590
    Abstract ( 112 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (1101KB) ( 272 )   Save

    Due to the complex physical changes and chemical reactions in the process of the steelmaking-continuous casting (SCC), the uncertainty of processing time is a common and representative uncertainty factor. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertain processing time before scheduling, to enhance the robustness of schedules and reduce the repair frequency of dynamic scheduling.For SCC scheduling problem with processing time uncertainty, the processing time is described by a three-parameter interval. A multi-objective optimization model with interval-valued is established to minimize the total waiting time and the total earliness/tardiness of casting time. To solve this problem, an improved fast elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII+) based on a classification evolution strategy is presented.Firstly, a decoding scheme considering the reverse order and a hybrid population initialization based on machine rules are proposed combining interval number operation. Then a classification evolution strategy is adopted to determine the crossover and mutation operators according to the crowding distance. The re-mutation of repeated individuals is proposed to maintain the diversity of the population. Finally, the results of the experiments based on actual SCC production data shows the effectiveness of the proposed NSGAII+ in solving quality and efficiency.Note that if the upper and lower limits and intermediate parameter of all three parameter intervals are the same, the problem is transferred into a static scheduling based on standard processing time. If two of the upper and lower limits and intermediate parameters of all three parameter intervals have the same value, it will degenerate into a two-parameter interval number problem. Thus, the model and algorithm proposed in this paper are also applicable to the above two problems.

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    Research on the Weighting Method for Group Decision Considering Effective Information of Experts
    Yang Jiao,Gang Li,Jianping Li,Bin Wang,Zhipeng Zhang
    2024, 32 (8):  107-116.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0810
    Abstract ( 160 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (572KB) ( 219 )   Save

    Group decision-making is to integrate group intelligence by assigning reasonable weights to experts. The distribution of expert weight not only can be determined subjectively by the reputation of experts, but also can be determined objectively by the quality of expert decision-making information, which is generally judged by the consistency test. The information with good consistency is effective information, otherwise is ineffective information. The effectiveness of group decision can only be guaranteed by integrating effective information. In the practice of group decision making, experts may have differences in their judgment of the importance of the same indicator, and all experts may have differences in different indicators. The information given by experts may be effective in some indicators and ineffective in other indicators. Therefore, the consistency test results based on different indicators will be different, which means considering a single indicator or all indicators may give different consistency results. The existing method of expert weight is distributed by decision experts’ consistency test result based on all indicators. The information of the experts on all indicators is considered as a whole. The expert information that fails the consistency test will be eliminated, or corrected until it passes the consistency test. The consistency test based on all indicators hides the difference of expert decision information on different indicators, so the effective information and ineffective information cannot be effectively distinguished. It may retain the ineffective information of the experts who have passed the consistency test, and delete the effective information of the experts who have not passed the consistency test, which obviously affects the rationality of the group decision results. This study is proposed to test the decision information consistency of the decision expert from the index level, effectively distinguish effective and ineffective information from the same expert’s decision information. Based on the G1 subjective weighting method, the expert weight distribution method under the expression of accurate value and interval value is studied. First, based on the G1 weighting method, a consistency test method based on the index level is proposed under the condition of accurate value. The criteria for effective and ineffective information in the weight information are determined, and an optimization model is established to solve the optimal combination weight. Then, the above framework is extended from the precise number to the interval number. The criteria for good and bad information under the interval number, the consistency test method, and the optimization problem of weight determination are proposed. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed group decision combination weighting method are verified by an actual example. Different from the existing research, the effective and ineffective decision-making information of the decision experts is effectively distinguished. The consistency test is carried out at the index level instead of at the expert level, which makes up for the shortcoming of traditional consistency test, such as loss effective information from ineffective experts and misuse ineffective information from effective experts.

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    A Cross-efficiency Evaluation Method Considering Decision Maker Preference Structure
    Yinyun Yu,Congdong Li,Yelin Fu,Kinkeung Lai
    2024, 32 (8):  117-126.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2359
    Abstract ( 155 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (687KB) ( 250 )   Save

    In practice, managers or decision-makers usually need to make strategic decisions among similar decision-making units, such as team performance, project performance, etc. Due to the same external environment, evaluation indicators, and other characteristics of similar decision-making units, it is difficult for decision-makers to make correct evaluations. Scholars have proposed and employed the cross-efficiency evaluation method to solve the above problems. However, the classic cross-efficiency of DEA pursues the absolute objectivity of the evaluation results and ignores the subjectivity of decision-makers in the evaluation process, which leads to the loss of decision-making information and weakens the validity of the evaluation results. In response to this problem, a cross-efficiency evaluation method is given considering the decision-maker preference structure, which combines with DEA and OWA operators.Specifically, the radical DEA model is used to obtain the initial cross-efficiency matrix of the decision-making units at first. Second, skewness and standard deviation are used to measure the preference structure of decision-makers, that is preference difference and priority, and to modify the initial cross-efficiency matrix. Subsequently, the weights of decision-making units are obtained based on maximizing the minimum preference difference. The final cross-efficiency values of the decision-making units are received by the OWA operator to aggregate the evaluation information.The statistical data of 27 industrial robots from the study of Wang and Chin are used to test the proposed method. Further, the proposed method is compared with the traditional DEA and Chen's method. The perspective of overall ranking, the changing trend of ranking obtained by the three methods is similar; the perspective of specific ranking, the cross-efficiency difference of the proposed method is bigger than that of the other two methods. In sum, the evaluation results of the proposed method have excellent consistency, and it is more conducive for decision-makers or managers to further understand and compare the differences between decision-making units.

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    Research on the Supply Decision of Industrial General Purpose Technologies Considering Market-oriented Development
    Yuelong Zheng,Chunguang Bai,Dengfeng Li
    2024, 32 (8):  127-138.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0124
    Abstract ( 94 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (920KB) ( 143 )   Save

    General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) were seen as the development engines of industries and whole countries. However, as a pre-competition technology, GPTs needs market-oriented development in order to realize its potential value after supply. Due to the characteristics of long R&D cycle, continuous investment and hard to monopolize revenue, GPTs are liable to fall into “market failure” and “organization failure” of supply. In addition, in the stage of market-oriented development, it may face the “system failure” and “market failure”, and even faces the multiple failure phenomenon of of interlacing with multiple failure types. How to alleviate GPTs R&D failures has become an important issue to be studied and solved. In order to avoid the possible failures in the process of GPTs R&D, it is necessary to combine GPTs supply with market-oriented development. The classic AJ Model is used for reference, the link between the supply and market-oriented development of GPTs is highlighted, and a two-stage game model of GPTs supply with Cournot competition between enterprises in the stage of market-oriented development is established. In the market-oriented development stage, enterprises respectively produce GPTs-based products to maximize their profits, while in the GPTs supply stage, they make decisions under different supply models. Then the supply decisions and its influence factors problem are revealed for duopoly enterprises which faces independent research (Scenario Ⅰ), research/imitation (Scenario Ⅱ) and Research Joint Venture (RJV, Scenario Ⅲ). The main results are as follows: the technical attribute of GPTs, which is more basic or applied, is an important influence factors on the decision-making of GPTs supply for duopoly enterprises, and it is also affected by the net cost coefficient of GPTs supply. For Scenario Ⅰ and Scenario Ⅱ, if the basic characteristic is obvious, the duopoly enterprises will choose ScenarioⅠ, and if the applied characteristic is obvious, then choose Scenario Ⅱ. For ScenarioⅠ and Ⅲ, Scenario Ⅱ and Ⅲ, the technical attributes of GPTs and the collaboration degree of RJV are the basic factors that affect the decision-making of GPTs supply. According to the technical attributes (basic attribute and application attribute) of GPTs and the collaboration degree (small collaboration degree and large collaboration degree) of RJV, a four-quadrant analysis matrix is established. In addition, the technical attribute of GPTs has an firstly ascended and then descended effect on the profit of duopoly enterprises in Scenario Ⅰ, and the government subsidy weakens the negative effect of net supply cost on the profit, but does not change the impact trajectory of the technical attribute. According to the research conclusions, policy suggestions are put forward to choose the supply mode of GPTs from two aspects of weighing the technical attribute of GPTs and the collaboration degree of RJV, so as to promote the GPTs supply and the market-oriented development. These will stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprise research, cultivate the market-oriented development product of GPTs, help to connect the supply chain and promote GPTs R&D. The classic AJ model is used to describe the market competition environment and it is applied to the innovation situation of GPTs, and the supply decision of GPTs is explored for market-oriented development. The decision-making game models of GPTs supply under three situations provide enlightenment for the in-depth study in the GPTs fields, and the policy suggestions provid reference for the decision-making of enterprises undertaking GPTs R&D and government department.

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    An Expanded Model for Project Portfolio Selection with Considering of Three Synergies
    Zhong Shen,Xingmei Li
    2024, 32 (8):  139-148.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0646
    Abstract ( 131 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (665KB) ( 158 )   Save

    The implementation of sub-project in project portfolio cannot be independent from other projects. Similar projects often occupy the same resources and need the same information technology. To reduce cost and improve income, project executors can make these projects share public resources and impart knowledge and experience to one another. This phenomenon is called synergy between projects. In the field of project portfolio decision problem, the existing study of synergy is limited to the benefits generated in the single period, but ignores the synergy between the projects carried out in different periods.To make this gap, the mechanism of synergy is studied and further two new types of synergy between the projects executed in multiple periods are developed. On this basis, combining with the learning curve and project closeness degree, the collaborative benefits is quantified for each synergy, and the project portfolio selection model with considering of multiple synergies is constructed. In the part of case analysis studies, a group of data is randomly generated and its rationality is analyzed. Matlab / gurobi is used to solve the problem and verify the effectiveness of the model. Then, five scenarios are compared to further analyze the influence of considering synergy on portfolio decision-making. The results show that: 1) the decision-making results with considering synergy can provide more benefits for enterprise and are conducive to the long-term development of the enterprise; 2) improving the learning ability between projects and adding more projects with higher approach degree to project portfolio is an effective way to improve the synergy of the portfolio; 3) the synergy of ending of multiple projects are more sensitive to the change of project cost and benefit. The model established in this paper also provides a new research idea and method for the study of synergy in project portfolio decision-making.

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    Unbiased and Adaptive of Discrete Grey Prediction Model and Its Application
    Shuliang Li,Shuangyi Yang,Bo Zeng,Wei Meng,Yun Bai
    2024, 32 (8):  149-158.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1937
    Abstract ( 118 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (772KB) ( 224 )   Save

    Unbiasedness and self-adaptability are two important properties of grey prediction model and the basis of studying the structure and performance of the model. The existing studies have mostly verified unbiased from the perspective of examples, without strict mathematical proof, and less analysis of the relationship between unbiased and adaptive. Firstly, using matrix theory, the unbiasedness of two kinds of common discrete grey prediction models is strictly proved in theory and verified by homogeneous index/nonhomogeneous index/linear function sequence. The results show that the two parameter discrete grey prediction model DGM(1,1) is unbiased only for the homogeneous exponential sequence, while the three parameter discrete grey prediction model TDGM(1,1) is unbiased for the exponential/non-homogeneous exponential/linear function sequence. Then, the adaptability of TDGM(1,1) to different feature sequences is analyzed from the perspective of model structure, and the internal relationship between self-adaptability and unbiased of model structure is verified. Finally, the TDGM(1,1) model is applied to forecast the world sales of new energy vehicles, and the prediction results are compared and analyzed. This study has positive significance for enriching and perfecting the grey prediction theory.

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    Integrated Design of Parameters and Tolerances under High-quality and Low-cost Perspective
    Yunxia Han,Yizhong Ma,Linhan Ouyang,Jing Xu,Guanxin Yao
    2024, 32 (8):  159-169.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1584
    Abstract ( 80 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (865KB) ( 117 )   Save

    Due to the limitation of the experimental data or the unknown random effects in the experiment, it may lead to large errors in the parameters estimation during modeling process, and a reliable quality design cannot be obtained.Therefore, the joint confidence region is constructed to quantify the uncertainty of input parameters (model parameters and parameters to be estimated in noise variables).Secondly, according to the distribution information of noise variable and design variable tolerance, a new expected quality loss function based on the confidence region is proposed.Then from the perspective of robustness and economy, optimization object function is constructed based on the interval estimation theory, which includes the location and dispersion effects of quality loss and tolerance cost.Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experimental simulation and industrial example.The results show that the method simultaneously incorporates the two important uncertainty into the objective function. It not only has good robustness to the disturbance of uncertainty, but also can make a reasonable trade-off between quality loss and tolerance cost to achieve a lower total cost.

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    Online Assisting Farmers Mode and Financing Strategy of Smart Platform Supply Chain
    Zongyu Mu,Xiaoxia Yang,Ke Li,Guitao Zhang
    2024, 32 (8):  170-181.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0651
    Abstract ( 181 )   HTML ( 12 )   PDF (1262KB) ( 239 )   Save

    The smart platform has the advantages of extensive sales channels and convenient financing method, which can help the national rural revitalization task to be accomplished as soon as possible. Therefore, it is considered that farmer generally faces a shortage of production funds, and the platform can provide financing help, and constructs the decision-making models of the supply chains of “farmer+smart platform”, “farmer+wholesaler+smart platform” and “farmer+rural cooperative+smart platform” and so on. “and other decision-making models of the supply chain of the farming assistance model. It is found that:(1) when farmer's affluence and consumers' preference for helping farmer increase, the market demand for agricultural products increases, which will enhance the profits of the members in the supply chain of the smart platform, and the improvement of the level of smart services helps to expand the market demand for agricultural products, which will in turn benefit the farmer, wholesaler, and rural cooperative in obtaining more profits, but the platform's profits are reduced due to the increase in the cost of investing in wisdom, and the interest-bearing loan. In the case of interest-bearing loans, the profit of farmer will decrease as the interest rate increases, while the profit of the platform will increase as the interest rate increases. (2) Under the “farmer + smart platform” direct marketing model, farmer and the smart platform can get the most profit because they can avoid the double marginal markup problem,but in reality, farmer is difficult to sell agricultural products directly on the platform due to the limitation of conditions, so it is difficult to realize this model, and at this time, farmer chooses to cooperate with the rural cooperatives to help them share production costs, which can get more profit. At this time,farmer chooses to cooperate with rural cooperative to help them share the cost of production, which can obtain more profits, so the richness effect of the “farmer + rural cooperative + smart platform” model will be better. (3) Under the three modes of smart platform to help farmer, farmer can obtain higher profit s through interest-free loans, while smart platform can obtain higher profits through interest-bearing loans. At this time, the government can design a reasonable subsidy policy to incentivize the smart platforms to improve the level of smart services while agreeing with farmers' expectations of interest-free loans in their financing strategies.

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    Research on Timing of IT Outsourcing Considering Contract Types and Demand Uncertainty
    Zongming Zhang,Jian Chai,Xiuwu Liao
    2024, 32 (8):  182-193.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.0385
    Abstract ( 124 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (833KB) ( 188 )   Save

    The proliferation of outsourcing facilitates the clients to access to technological expertise and cost efficiency of the service venders. However, purposes of outsourcing are not always met. Firstly, the investment of outsourcing is irreversible. When the clients select outsourcing, there will be a payment for service vendors via contracting and a considerable management cost due to supervising outsourcing process. Moreover, there will be a switching cost as a result of switching form insourcing to outsourcing. Once the outsourcing fails, these expenses will not be able to recovered. Secondly, the service requirements are changing and uncertain resulting from the turbulent information technology environments and business change, increasing the difficulty of outsourcing relationship management and the probability of outsourcing failure. The aforementioned considerations motivate the clients to reserve the outsourcing flexibility. Specifically, the clients can exercise outsourcing immediately when the environment is favorable or choose insourcing when facing unfavorable conditions or postpone outsourcing until the conditions become favorable, that is, the clients owns the outsourcing option. In addition, contracts are pivotal tools to manage outsourcing operations, in which the incentive and flexibility associated with outsourcing timing is different. For instance, fixed-price contract can incentive the service vendors to reduce costs through process innovation but lacks flexibility, while cost-plus contract has no incentive for the service vendors to cut cost but has high flexibility. Uncertainty may make it necessary for the clients to have more flexibility in an outsourcing. However, the lack of incentive in the contract may bring opposite influence. Considering the risks of demand uncertainty and irreversible investment of IT outsourcing, an analytical framework with real options theory is developed to address issues of outsourcing timing. The results show that for low-skill process the probability of outsourcing is decreasing in volatility of demand and waiting time of outsourcing is increasing in volatility of demand for both the cost-plus contract and fixed-price contract, for high-skill process the probability of outsourcing is decreasing in volatility of demand and waiting time of outsourcing is increasing in volatility of demand for fixed-price contract, however, the results are opposite for cost-plus contract. High fixed cost of insourcing, low fixed cost of outsourcing and switching cost favor outsourcing under both contracts. For low-skill process high variable cost favors outsourcing with both cost-plus contract and fixed-price contract, for high-skill process high variable cost favors outsourcing when adopting the fixed-price contract but favors insourcing when adopting the cost-plus contract. The cost advantage of the service provider is beneficial for outsourcing when adopting cost-plus contract, but has no effect on the outsourcing timing when adopting the fixed-price contract.

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    Credit-insurance Covered Financing of the Retailer-dominated Supply Chain: A Newsvendor Model
    Xiaojun Shi,Jiakun Xing
    2024, 32 (8):  194-203.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2714
    Abstract ( 118 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (987KB) ( 170 )   Save

    The significance of credit insurance magnifies with the intensifying of de-globalization and the attendant instability of the supply chain. Meanwhile, the rise of the platform economy renders retailer-dominated supply chains a new norm. In combination, the coordination role of insurance along a retailer-dominated supply chain is explored with optional external bank credit or internal trade-credit financing. A model builds on a newsvendor Stackelberg game incorporating insurance participation between the supplier and the vendor, expanding the trade-credit literature under market demand uncertainty. The main results in this study indicate that the coordination role of credit insurance is evident in trade-credit financing internal to the supply chain while insignificant in bank credit which is mainly exogenous to the supply chain. Specifically, when the budget-constrained vendor is financed by trade credit, credit insurance can reduce the supplier’s wholesale price and increase the retailer’s order volume, better supply chain coordination, and improve profits for both suppliers and retailers. Resultantly, credit insurance can improve the supply chain’s efficiency to the level of Stackelberg equilibrium but below the chain coordination equilibrium. When the credit insurance protection is greater than the premium expenditure in extremity, the in-dominance retailer is likely to share the insurance cost or even bears all the insurance costs. Regarding policy implications, our results suggest customized and cost-sharing credit insurance to stabilize the supply chain in the post-COVID-19 era.

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    Product Pricing and Rollover Strategy Based on the Waiting Time for Heterogeneous Strategic Consumers
    Kangkang Lin,Xinmin Liu,Lei Wang
    2024, 32 (8):  204-213.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2121
    Abstract ( 136 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (684KB) ( 187 )   Save

    The rapid development of technology and the diversification of consumer demand have inspired manufacturers to speed up the pace of technological innovation, and the phenomenon of product rollover is more frequent. Due to the existence of strategic consumers, there is a delay effect and competition effect between two successive-generation products, which makes the product pricing and rollover strategy of manufacturers more complicated, ignoring strategic consumers will lead to loss of profits in the supply chain.Considering a stationary flow of heterogeneous strategic consumers that arrive over time, a monopoly firm’s rollover strategy and optimal pricing are studied. In this paper, the strategic consumers’ utility function is constructed to distinguish the purchase range of new and old products, and a multi-stage dynamic game model and the revenue rate function are built to determine the evolution trajectory of the equilibrium pricing under the two rollover strategies. The impact of strategic consumers’ waiting cost coefficient, old product’s discount pricing on key selling points and profit through simulation is explored.The research indicates that the dual rollover strategy can improve market share, and single rollover strategy is more advantageous in profit. The dual rollover strategy exacerbates competition between the old and new products, which causes the equilibrium price is lower than that of single rollover strategy. The revenue rate shows periodic characteristics in the whole sales period, and the single rollover strategy can achieve higher revenue rate. Strategic consumers’ wait time cost and the old product’s discount pricing not only affect the profits of the monopoly firm, but also have important impact on the sales section of the two rollover strategies. Moreover, under the dual rollover strategy, when the price of the old product reaches the threshold in the second stage, the strategic consumers will not choose to wait for the old product.Based on the above analyses, it is proposed that manufacturers need to strengthen brand building and advertising, improve the innovation level of new products, and further promote strategic consumers to buy in advance. Especially in the dual rollover mode, manufacturers need to take into account the profit and the inventory of new and old products, so as to set a reasonable price. It is expected that this research can provide some meaningful reference for manufacturers to alleviate strategic consumer behavior.

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    Research on Supply Chain Financial Decision Based on the Analysis of Central Government Project Subsidy under the Background of Rural Revitalization Subsidy
    Nan Xie,Haitao He,Yanju Zhou,Zongrun Wang
    2024, 32 (8):  214-229.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2540
    Abstract ( 168 )   HTML ( 14 )   PDF (1346KB) ( 267 )   Save

    Rural revitalization is the only way to realize common prosperity. In recent years, the central government has taken a series of measures to implement the rural revitalization strategy. However, some local governments are trapped in the impulsive performance of political achievements, and there are still many short-term behaviors, which have hidden fiscal, financial and social risks. A four-stage Stackelberg game model among township enterprises, e-commerce platforms and local governments is constructed under the same conditions of central government project subsidies. It is found that the increasing the central government's project subsidy rate and consumer revitalization preference payment coefficient result in lower the external impact of local governments on township enterprises,thereby reducing the cost of township enterprises and promoting township and village enterprises produce rural revitalization products to achieve consumption upgrades and product upgrades. At the same time, it is found that the loan interest rates set by e-commerce platforms should be regulated. Because the e-commerce platform has the motivation to increase the loan interest rate to obtain additional income, which in turn forces the township and village enterprises to “recharge with inferior products” in the production of products, resulting in the failure of the central government's project subsidy transmission mechanism, and even negative effects. Overall, this study shows that the guiding mechanism of the central government's project subsidy on the external behavior of the local government, and its influence on the product production, channel sales and loan mode selection of township enterprises. Further evidence shows that the necessity of supervising the loan interest rate of e-commerce platforms from the perspective of supply chain finance. And it is concluded that the central government's project subsidy measures are still an important measure of the rural revitalization strategy, and a long-term strategy for the country to achieve enterprise transformation, product innovation, and effective improvement of social welfare.

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    Water Saving Service Outsourcing for High Water Consumption Enterprises under Demand Uncertainty
    Xiaona Li,Weimin Ma
    2024, 32 (8):  230-240.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1130
    Abstract ( 112 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (893KB) ( 147 )   Save

    Water saving service outsourcing has become an important means to construct water-saving enterprises for high water consumption manufacturers which cannot apply required water economizing equipment, technologies and management skills. Manufacturers with water-saving demands often select a specialized water saving service (WSS) provider through procurement bidding to carry out projects for water conservation transformation in production process. Then the industry standard will be reached under the service providers' investment in improving efficiency of water saving and emission reduction. In reality, especially for emerging industries, there broadly exist information asymmetry and market uncertainty. When the actual requirement of customer exceeds the announced outsourcing capabilities, the remaining ones need to be obtained through a second purchase (short-term) contract.In this paper,the reverse auction of client firm’s water-saving service procurement contract and the capacity investment of water-saving service companies in a supply chain composed of a high water consumption enterprise and two competing water-saving service providers is considered. And the optimal outsourcing strategy of water user and the decisions on bidding price and investment in water saving capacity of service providers are studied respectively based on a four-stage dynamic game model, in which the unit operation costs of water saving service companies are their private information. Besides, the costs and the market demands are all regarded as independent uncertain variables. After that, the optimal solutions of game participants are derived by backward recursion method. That is, the announced outsourcing capacity of the client, the quoted prices of service providers in the bidding competition and vendors' capacity investment decisions are calculated.Owing to the complicated forms of the solutions, numerical studies are given to examine the impacts of various parameters, such as the client firm’s demand distribution, the vendors' cost distributions, the third-party service price and the second purchase price on the optimal decisions of the players. Based on the discussions, it is obtained that the announced outsourcing capacity by water client is positively related to the average actual demand, the coefficient of variation of operation cost and the second purchase price, and negatively related to the standard deviation of demand, service price and average cost; The bidding prices of service suppliers are positively related to the average actual demand, service price, average cost and second purchase price, and negatively related to the standard deviation of cost and the coefficient of variation of actual demand; The investment of water saving capacity of the winning vendor is positively related to the average demand and the second purchase price, and negatively related to the standard deviation of the demand. In addition, whether winning the bid or not, the capacity investment of the vendor is positively related to the service price and negatively related to the operation cost.

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    Value Co-creation, Distributor Network Structure Embedding and Cooperation Performance
    Yong He,Guijun Zhuang,Chao Feng
    2024, 32 (8):  241-249.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1812
    Abstract ( 118 )   HTML ( 0 )   PDF (1017KB) ( 150 )   Save

    The important impact of value co creation among enterprises has been unanimously recognized by theorists and practitioners, but the existing research mainly focuses on the direct impact effect of value co creation, and lacks the boundary conditions to explore the impact effect of value co creation from the perspective of enterprise network. Based on value co creation theory and social network theory, the impact of channel value co-creation on cooperation performance and the regulatory role of distributor network density and network centrality is discussed. Taking the cooperative relationship between manufacturers and distributors as the research situation, 288 valid questionnaires investigated and obtained from domestic manufacturers are analyzed. The results show that: first, the value co creation of manufacturers and distributors will improve the cooperation performance of both sides; Second, the distributor network density will enhance the positive impact of value co creation on cooperation performance, while the distributor network centrality has no significant regulatory effect on the relationship between value co creation and cooperation performance. The research results reveal the impact of value co creation among enterprises on cooperation performance under the channel situation, enrich the theoretical research on the relationship between value co creation and social network, and help enterprise managers better understand the impact of the embedded characteristics of network structure on the effect of value co creation among enterprises, so as to develop value co creation among enterprises in a more scientific way and build a close cooperative relationship.

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    Research on the Influence of Carbon Trading on Carbon Emission Reduction Effect and Coordination Mechanism under Carbon Quotas
    Biao Li,Xiqiang Xia,Qiuyue Li
    2024, 32 (8):  250-260.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0576
    Abstract ( 196 )   HTML ( 13 )   PDF (852KB) ( 283 )   Save

    In the face of escalating global concerns about climate change, industries ubiquitously confront the daunting task of mitigating their carbon footprints. The manufacturing sector, a pivotal arena for the attainment of the “dual carbon” objectives, is experiencing an exigent demand for holistic emission curtailment throughout its supply chain. This investigation elucidates the ramifications of carbon quota trading in refining carbon mitigation methodologies and their synergistic frameworks. Leveraging insights from carbon quota trading, models are formulated under a decentralized decision-making paradigm, wherein component vendors and manufacturers undertake emission reductions either in isolation or collaboratively. A centralized emission reduction decision-making model is also proposed. The carbon reduction magnitudes, product price structures, sales trajectories, and supply chain advantages are juxtaposed across these divergent emission curtailment models. Predicated on the intensity of emission abatement and value generation, the quintessential model for emission reduction within the ambit of carbon quota trading is indentified.Drawing on the example of a tire manufacturing supply chain, Company A (an upstream component purveyor) delivers essential rubber additives and adjuncts requisite for Company B's (a downstream tire producer) manufacturing processes. Collectively, this firm' strategic initiatives within the supply chain facilitate pronounced carbon reduction in products. The findings underscore that galvanizing supply chain stakeholders to coalesce via profit-sharing and cost-allocation agreements not only averts losses stemming from game-theoretic dynamics but also accentuates the scale of emission abatement and amplifies supply chain yields. Such insights proffer invaluable strategic direction for government entities striving to expedite emission reduction trajectories in the manufacturing domain, concurrently furnishing a theoretical scaffold for supply chain businesses aspiring for win-win synergies.The primary findings of the research are as follows (1) Within the carbon quota trading framework, a centralized decision-making approach engenders a more pronounced product emission diminution than its decentralized counterpart. Notably, the concurrent emission abatement strategy within the decentralized model manifests the most substantial product emission curtailment. (2) Emission abatement endeavors spearheaded by both upstream and downstream entities in the supply chain augment product turnover and enhance the cumulative supply chain yield. Products' turnover and supply chain yields under a centralized framework conspicuously eclipse those under decentralized decision-making. (3) Pertaining to carbon quota trading, supply chain entities can actualize an optimal coordination blueprint intrinsic to the centralized model by mutually committing to emission reductions and initiating profit-sharing and cost-allocation compacts.

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    Quadripartite Evolutionary Game of Public Participation in Interactive Transboundary Pollution Control Compensation
    Zhi Yang
    2024, 32 (8):  261-273.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1416
    Abstract ( 100 )   HTML ( 2 )   PDF (1125KB) ( 203 )   Save

    Focus on cross regional environmental governance under the two-way interaction of pollution, the division of pollution responsibility is solved through public participation, and the interactive transboundary pollution control compensation mechanism based on “public supervision” and “public compensation” is explored. The quadripartite evolutionary game model of the neighboring two provinces, the central government and the public is constructed, the decision-response logic of multiple entities and the optimal formula for strategic equilibrium are discussed, and the policy optimization path is simulated and analyzed based on the 2018 regional data. The study indicates that: (1) The act of the public “whistleblowing” for rights protection has been prompted by central policy guidance and neighboring areas' pollution discharge. The improvement of environmental governance in neighboring areas is facilitated by active public participation. As diversified governance deepens, the implementation of incentive mechanisms will be transformed into the implementation of compensation mechanisms by the central government. (2) However, only when severe excess penalties, compliance incentives and whistle-blowing incentives are greater than the limit threshold, can the optimal strategy set of compliance emissions in adjacent areas, central compensation mechanisms and public whistle-blowing be promoted. (3) 'Differentiated punishment' is a necessary means to avoid the prisoners' dilemma in neighboring areas, but the implementation effect is limited to the unilateral standard, which is broken by the 'incentive mechanism', and improved to the discharge of both sides. The result of targeted investment in pollution control costs in adjacent areas and internalizing externalities of pollution is driven by compensation mechanisms, which can effectively relieve the central government's funding pressure and restrictions on the degree of green development in the two provinces under the incentive strategy. The compensation mechanism has been optimized under key measures such as reducing additional administrative costs for the central government and increasing whistleblowing rewards for the general public. This study can be used as a reference to address the issue of interactive transboundary pollution control in regions and river basins.

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    Does Business Environment Break the Political Resource Curse? —— An Analysis Based on the Political Affiliation and Firm Productivity
    Zhenyang Li,Xuejie Bai
    2024, 32 (8):  274-284.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2011
    Abstract ( 130 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (638KB) ( 157 )   Save

    In the new stage of development, the improvement of firm’s total factor productivity plays a key role in the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry. In the context of China’s economic transition system, some firms will obtain production factors by establishing political affiliation with the government. Is there a political resource curse for firm’s productivity improvement? Can the business environment have an effect of political affiliation on firm’s productivity? A deep understanding of the above mechanism is important for China to promote the high-quality economic development.Using the panel data of Chinese industrial firms, fixed-effects model and threshold regression model, the relationship between political affiliation and firm’s total factor productivity is analyzed. Then whether business environment can break the political resource curse and promote the improvement of firm’s total factor productivity is studied. The results show that the political affiliation has a restraining effect on the firm’s total factor productivity and business environment can alleviate the adverse effect of the political affiliation on the improvement of firm’s total factor productivity. Thus the business environment can break the political resource curse. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the political affiliation has a restraining effect on the improvement of firm’s total factor productivity for state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises as well as for low-technology, medium-technology and high-technology manufacturing industry. What’s more, the positive moderating effect of business environment is better reflected in private enterprises, high-technology manufacturing industries and enterprises in eastern region of China.Thus the conclusion provides a meaningful reference for government to continuously optimize the business environment, eliminate institutional obstacles and promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.

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    Water Allocation Problem with Bi-level Robust Nonconvex Programming Model: A Case in Heihe River Basin
    Liming Yao,Zhongwen Xu,Haojun Lu,Xudong Chen
    2024, 32 (8):  285-296.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2733
    Abstract ( 111 )   HTML ( 3 )   PDF (836KB) ( 197 )   Save

    The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 puts forward to improve water use efficiency while implementing integrated water resources management from a multi-scale perspective. However, how to design effective water resource allocation scheme in the situation of (semi) drought consider the game behavior of decision-makers is a severe problem in China. Firstly, climate change, economic development, population growth and other factors lead to a significant increase in the uncertainty in water supply and demand, of which its statistical distribution are difficult to be determined directly. Secondly, when adding hydrological environment uncertainty, Stackelberg game and non-convex objective function into a water resource allocation model, it would be difficult to solve. Therefore, to allocate initial water rights and water use rights in (semi-) arid environment, a new bi-level robust optimization model is proposed in this paper, moreover, the global optimal solution method based on robust optimization, convex optimization theory and piecewise linear method is needed and deigned.In this study, a bi-level multi-followers robust programming model is proposed for water allocation problems under uncertainty, wherein hierarchical optimization, polyhedral uncertainty sets, and a non-convex objective function coexist. The proposed deciding framework can suitably address resources allocation problems under uncertainty with multiple kinds of decision-makers. It is believed that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature. To some extent, prior studies have applied heuristics to solve analogous decision-making problems that include more than one hierarchy. These studies often obtained local solutions. However, the quality of the allocation strategy directly affects social progress and economic development. This predicament requires a global solution, which our work addresses. To be specific, in our three-stage global approach, the first stage supports uncertain characterization and robust equivalent transformations. In the second stage, a single-level model is generated through the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker and big M methods. The last stage focuses on obtaining a global solution by applying the convexification and piecewise linear technique. In this way, the authors obtain a robust counterpart problem for solving the uncertainty embodied in the proposed model. In addition, convexification and piecewise techniques are uniquely used to get a global solution.Finally, a case study of Heihe River basin is given to verify the validity of the model and solution method. Based on the above results, it is suggested that adjusting strategies should be optimized for different regions based on resource endowments and development targets. In real-world practice, it is believed our findings have important implications for the mitigation of resources use conflicts among multiple participants in resources (semi)-scarce areas.

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    Research on Coordinated Dispatching of Emergency Materials in the Initial Stage of Outburst Epidemic with the Coupling of Regional Mutual Rescue and External Rescue
    Lin Zhou,Peng Huang,Ying Dai,Han Song
    2024, 32 (8):  297-307.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.2293
    Abstract ( 112 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (965KB) ( 167 )   Save

    Outburst and unconventional epidemic represented by COVID-19 will quickly spread to the surrounding areas after outbreaking, and these areas formed the epidemic core areas, each area has a high shortage of emergency supplies. Since it takes a relatively long time to collect, transport and distribute emergency materials from external areas to the epidemic core area, if each epidemic core area is only “responsible for its own epidemic prevention” before the arrival of external rescue materials, and the mobility of the population will have a related impact on the epidemic situation in each epidemic area, thus aggravating the spread of the epidemic situation. Compared with “responsible for its own epidemic prevention”, “mutual help” among epidemic core areas is more conducive to the prevention and control of the early stage of the epidemic. Therefore, it focuses on the problem of coordination scheduling of emergency materials based on the combination of “mutual help” among the epidemic core areas and external areas rescue in this study.An improved SVEIR model is first designed to finely describe the epidemic spread process according to the analysis of the law of epidemic’s spreading. On this basis, a collaborative optimization model of emergency materials is constructed considering the coupling scenario of epidemic dynamic evolution, government response decision and material scheduling. And then, an adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm is designed to solve the model with the analysis of the characteristics of the problem. A case study of COVID-19 in 11 cities of Hubei province is finally presented to promote the model validation analysis.Stimulation result shows that the “mutual rescue” among the epidemic core areas is coupling with external areas rescue, and the proposed collaborative rescue model is helpful to significantly improve the effect of epidemic prevention and control. Meanwhile, based on the sensitivity analysis of key parameters, some research findings are obtained: (1) The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the speed of government response; (2) The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the virus transmission, the stronger of the virus transmission, the more obvious the “mutual rescue” of epidemic core areas; (3) The effect of epidemic prevention is positively correlated with the distribution efficiency of core epidemic areas, the higher the distribution efficiency, the better the epidemic prevention effect; (4) The appropriate movement of personnel is helpful to promote the overall prevention and control of the epidemic. There is a theoretical optimal patient population flow between core epidemic areas to achieve the optimal effect of epidemic prevention. The above findings provide useful suggestions and decision support for the prevention and control of public health emergencies.

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    Multi-stage Dynamic Evolution of Over-treatment Behavior under Drug-proportion Regulation
    Xiangyan Sun,Xinchi Qu
    2024, 32 (8):  308-321.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.1780
    Abstract ( 100 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (1838KB) ( 156 )   Save

    Over-treatment is one of the key issues in China's medical reform. Following the abolition of medication bonus measures to prevent doctors from overusing medications, problems such as over-examination and over-treatment have become increasingly serious.A multi-stage dynamic evolution game model of doctor-patient behavior is constructed under the control of drug ratio, and the evolution of the behavior strategy of the three participants of doctors and patients is discussed by replicating the Jacobi matrix and numerical experiment simulation of the dynamic system.The results are as follows.(1)The assessment and incentive of doctors' non-drug expenses by the hospital is an important reason for the problems of excessive examination and over-treatment of doctors.The poor channels for patient complaints have contributed to the problem of over-examination and over-treatment by doctors. (2)In the two-way game between doctors and patients without hospital participation, drug proportion control is not always conducive to curb excessive medical problems, but in the three-way game between doctors and patients with hospital participation and patients having channels to review medical plans, drug proportion control is always conducive to curb excessive medical problems. (3)When the reference value of drug proportion is small, the hospital should take incentive measures for doctors who exceed the standard drug proportion control documents, and when the reference value of drug proportion is large, the hospital should take punitive measures against doctors who use drugs beyond the standard. (4)Mild patients and patients with low treatment cost will be treated differently by doctors. Doctors tend to provide excessive medical schemes for patients with low treatment cost, but tend to provide reasonable medical schemes for mild patients, and patients with low treatment cost can only be forced to accept it. Therefore, The hospital should use the limited review cost to focus on the review of medical plans for patients with low treatment cost but serious diseases. (5)The high complaint cost of patients reduces the willingness of patients to accept the medical scheme provided by doctors, and is not conducive to the promotion and popularization of the first diagnosis at the grass-roots level. Therefore, the hospital should actively review the medical scheme provided by doctors, and establish a transfer payment mechanism for excessive medical punishment to compensate patients for their losses, so as to realize mutual trust between doctors and patients.

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    Spatiotemporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Attention to Doctor-patient Disputes in China
    Jusheng Liu,Zhiping Qiu,Changrui Yu
    2024, 32 (8):  322-334.  doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1866
    Abstract ( 116 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (677KB) ( 112 )   Save

    In recent years, the occurrence of disputes between doctors and patients has aroused great public concern, which not only wastes public attention but also hurts the promotion of the "Health China" strategy. Although the media and the public have reported and paid some attention to the issue of doctor-patient disputes, it is difficult to directly reflect the actual level of attention paid to doctor-patient disputes. Therefore, what are the characteristics of attention to doctor-patient disputes in China? What are the factors driving the evolution of attention to doctor-patient disputes? To explore the question of increasing attention to doctor-patient disputes and regional differences in China, a variety of methods is used to present an empirical study on spatiotemporal differences and influencing factors of attention to doctor-patient disputes in China.Based on the Baidu Index of doctor-patient disputes from 2011 to 2019, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and spatial Moran index are used to analyze the regional differences, distribution dynamics, and spatial agglomeration characteristics. It also uses OLS estimation of the panel data model and Oaxaca Blinder decomposition to explore the driving factors and sources of regional differences in doctor-patient dispute attention.The results indicate that the degree of attention to doctor-patient disputes has increased as a whole, showing a decreasing and more obvious unbalanced pattern from east to west. The inter-provincial difference is the main source of attention and imbalance, among which the East-West difference is the largest and the Northeast-Central difference is the smallest. Attention has significant spatial correlation characteristics, and it forms a high-high attention “club” in the Yangtze River Delta, Fujian, Shandong, and Henan. Cultural literacy, the burden of patients, social governance level, informatization, the regional economic level, and the number of media reports have a significant positive impact on attention, while geographical distance has a negative inhibitory effect. The above results are still robust after excluding extreme samples and spatial econometric analysis. Besides, the level of social governance and the burden on patients are the main sources of regional and high-low level differences in attention.The value of this study is to provide policy implications for the correct guidance and management of the spread of public opinion on doctor-patient disputes. It also can help people to understand the regional differences and evolution of attention to doctor-patient disputes in China.

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