Abstract: Accurate prediction of domestic waste clearing and transporting volume is an important basis for environmental protection departments to formulate policies and measures for the disposal of domestic garbage. Firstly, the combination optimization of the independent variable driving term, the accumulation order and the background value coefficient is carried out on the basis of the multi-variable grey forecasting model with new structure, and a novel multi-variable grey system model suitable for prediction of domestic waste clearing and transporting volume is derived and constructed. Secondly, domestic waste clearing and transporting volume in Jiangsu Province is modelled by this new model, the results show that its comprehensive error is only 0.996%, and the accuracy of the model is superior to other multi-variable grey forecasting models (1.933%, 4.894%). Finally, this model is applied to predict domestic waste clearing and transporting volume in Jiangsu Province, the results show that its clearing and transporting volume will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 7% in the next 10 years and reach 32.2159 million tons in 2028. Therefore, the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. A reference basis is provided for environmental protection departments to formulate relevant policies and measures, and an effective modeling method is also provided for the prediction of domestic waste clearing and transporting volume.

Key words: domestic waste clearing and transporting volume; multi-variable grey forecasting model; parameters’ combination optimization; countermeasure and suggestion