主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 144-152.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.01.012

• Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Grey System Modeling Technology for Early Prediction and Warning of Human Diseases

ZENG Bo1, LIU Si-feng2, BAI Yun3, ZHOU Meng3   

  1. 1. College of business planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China;
    2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;
    3. National Research Base of Intelligent Manufacturing Service, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China
  • Received:2017-12-05 Revised:2018-06-11 Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-01-19

Abstract: Traditional health tests are often executed by horizontal comparisons and static analyses of a single physical examination result. The health condition and physical state are judged only based on the values of physical examination indicators, without the involvement of individual difference. Hence the potential disease cannot be discovered timely. Since the data of physical examination indicators from an individual are featured by small sample size, uncertain information, data isomerism and complicated influence factors, traditional mathematical models based on big data cannot be applied for such systems with a small data size. To this end, a novel grey system model, HIGM(1,1) for short, is established to forecast the development tendency of main human health indicators and then accomplish the dynamical modeling and tendency analysis of such human health indicators. Consequently, the changing tendency of physical indicators and potential disease can be obtained. The new HIGM(1,1) model is employed to forecast the index of serum creatinine which can reflect body kidney functions. The results show that the simulation and prediction errors of serum creatinine are less than those of the classical GM(1,1) model. The study findings have the important significance on promoting physical examination effect and intensifying physical examination meaning between grey theory and practical problems.

Key words: healthy check-up, grey system model, physical index prediction, health early warning

CLC Number: