Abstract: Issue of planning distribution density during the new product commercialization process for manufactures is discussed in this paper to diagnose the evolution of distribution density and therefore optimize the profit of new products. Based upon control theory, distribution density is set as a control variable, and sales as a state variable. Then, the optimization issue of new product distribution density is solved based on dynamic programming method. Further the optimization procedure for sales data of two electronic apparatus is applied to get the optimization trajectory. The type of sales data is time series which records distribution density, sales, and sales cost. The numerical result indicates that the optimization trajectory of new product distribution density can substantially improve the profit of new products and the shape of the optimization result is contingent on the parameters of the optimization procedure. As the impact coefficient of distribution density on sales increases, the optimization trajectory of distribution density will eventually converge to a straight line. Thus, if the assumptions of this paper are valid, the deduced optimization trajectory can uncover the dynamic regularities of distribution density and be a quantitative decision criterion of distribution density planning for manufactures.

Key words: new product, distribution density, dynamic optimization, optimized trajectory