Abstract: Risk decision-making is an important research field of management, psychology and economics. By reviewing and analyzing the classical risk decision-making theories, multiple reference points, risk perception and multi-criteria decision-making are poposed as the theoretical basis. Then, the reference points in decision-making are categorized as expected reference point and disgusting reference point, and risk is defined as the negative deviation between the future state of decision incidents and the expectation reference point. In the light of the above, a risk decision-making theory based on value maximization and risk minimization, together with risk evaluation method and an integrated decision model based on expectation value and risk, is developed in this paper. Finally, the decision theory is tested on classical decision-making paradoxes and some decision-making examples. And the testing results prove the proposed risk decision-making theory is strongly explanatory to risk decision-making.

Key words: decision-making, reference point, value, risk