基于图模型的反事实推理在决策后评估中的应用

Abstract

Abstract: Ex-post decision evaluation plays an important role in measuring the effects of decisions.In this paper, counterfactual reasoning method is used to implement pairwise decision evaluation.First the normative decision analysis process with post-decision evaluation is proposed, and then the steps of doing counterfactual reasoning with causal influence diagrams are illustrated.Two measures are defined, one is self-satisfaction ratio and the other is relative satisfaction ratio.The values of the measures that acquired through counterfactual reasoning are the results of the assessment.Finally, an example is given to illustrate the evaluation process, which shows the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: influence diagram, decision analysis, evaluation, counterfactual reasoning, causal model

CLC Number:

C934

HU Xiao-xuan, YANG Shan-lin, HUA Juan. Graph-based Counterfactual Reasoning for Ex-post Decision Evaluation[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, 20(6): 160-166.

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Graph-based Counterfactual Reasoning for Ex-post Decision Evaluation

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