基于认知风险度量的ISC牛鞭效应分析

Abstract

Abstract: In the paradigm of behavioral finance,hereis described the overconfidence mentality of integrated supply chain(ISC) participant by DHS(Daniel-Hirshleifer-Subrahmanyam)model.Then,it forms the ISC demand equilibrium model with the overconfidence mentality,which reveals operation mechanism of ISC bullwhip effect with loss probability and prospect loss based on perceived risk measurement.Considering bounded rational of ISC practices,it's proposed a new method for ISC bullwhip effect measurement with the behavioral finance paradigm.

Key words: integrated supply chain, bullwhip effect, perceived risk, overconfidence

CLC Number:

F252

JIANG Ji-jiao, YANG Nai-ding. Bullwhip Effect Analysis of ISC Based on Perceived Risk Measurement[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2006, (2): 124-128.

References

[1] Tan K C.A framework of supply chain management literature[J].European Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2001,7 (1):39-48.
[2] Dejonckheere J,Disney S M,Lambrecht M R,Towill D R.Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect:A control theoretic approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,147 (3):567-590.
[3] Lee H L,Padmanabhan V,Whang S.Information distortion in a supply chain:The bullwhip effect[J].Management Science,1997,43(4):546-558.
[4] Forrester J W.Industrial Dynamics[M].Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1961.
[5] Sterman J D.Modeling management behavior:Misperceptiona of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment[J].Management Science,1989,35 (3):321-339.
[6] Sterman J D.Teaching Takes Off,Fight simulators for management education[J].OR/MS(The Institute for Operations and the Management Science)Today,1992,19(5):40-44.
[7] Krane S D,Braun S N.Production smoothing evidence from physical product data[J].Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(3):558-581.
[8] 罗卫,张子刚,欧阳胆德.基于DE-APIOBPCS策略的牛鞭效应和库存方差[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(2):88-94.
[9] Fuller J B,O' Conor J,Rawlinson R.Tailored logistics:The next advantage[J].Harvard Business Review,1993,(5):87-98.
[10] McCullen P,Towill D.Diagnosis and reduction of bullwhip in supply chain[J].Supply Chain Management:An International Journal,2002,7(3):164-179.
[11] 李刚,汪寿阳,于刚,阎洪.牛鞭效应与生产平滑模型有效性问题[J].管理科学学报,2004,7(1):1-18.
[12] Akerlof G A.The market for"lemons":Qualitative uncertainty and the market mechanism[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1970,84(3):488-500.
[13] Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect theory:An analysis of decision making under risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47 (2):263-291.
[14] Shefrin H,Statman M.Behavioral portfolio theory[J].Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,2000,35(2):127-151.
[15] Shiller R J.Stock prices and social dynamics[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1984,2(3):457-498.
[16] De Long J B,Shleifer A,Summers L,Waldmann R J.The survival of noise traders in financial markets[J].Journal of Business,1991,64 (1):1-20.
[17] Daniel K,Hirshleifer D,Subrahmanyam A.Investor psychology and security market under-and overreactions[J].Journal of Finance,1998,53 (6):1839-1886.
[18] 杨春鹏,吴冲锋,陈敏.行为金融:认知风险与认知期望收益[J].中国管理科学,2005,3(3):15-19.
[19] 杨春鹏.基于行为金融的证券投资"认知风险"度量研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2004,(5):79-84.
[20] Barberis N,Shleifer A,Vishny R.A model of investor sentiment[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1998,49 (3):307-343.

Bullwhip Effect Analysis of ISC Based on Perceived Risk Measurement

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10

[1]	LI Bai-zhou, YIN Shi, ZENG Jing-wei, LUO Xiao-fang. Cooperative Innovation Mechanism and Dynamic Evolution of Integrated Supply Chain Based on SEM and B-Z Reaction——The Perspective of the Relationship Quality of Integrated Supply Chain [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(2): 166-177.
[2]	ZHANG Xiao-ling, LU Qiang. Impact of Customer Response to Stock-out on Bullwhip Effect:Under Supply Chain Disruption [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(7): 54-62.
[3]	ZHANG Xiao-ling, LU Qiang. Impact of Customer Response to Stock-out on Bullwhip Effect:Under Supply Chain Disruption [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(7): 54-62.
[4]	WU Xiao-ling, LIU Xiao-feng, ZHOU Jing, LU Meng-ying. Design and Selection of Optimal Compensation Contract for PPP Project Based on Private Overconfidence [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(11): 29-39.
[5]	XIAO Di, YUAN Jing-xia, LU Qi-hui. Supply Chain Inventory Strategy Considering Quality Control under Decision-maker Overconfidence Perspective [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2014, 22(10): 59-65.
[6]	LI Chong, LIU Si-feng, FANG Zhi-geng, BAI Yang. Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain Networks with Lead Time Delays and Its Inventory Control Strategy [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, (2): 107-113.
[7]	WANG Dao-ping, ZHANG Xue-long, ZHAO Xiang-zhong. Robustness Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain with Grey Stochastic Dynamics [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, (1): 57-62.
[8]	CHEN Qi-an, GAO Guo-ting, CHEN Hui. Pricing Model of Chinese Stock Market Based on Individual Investors’ Overconfidence [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(4): 38-46.
[9]	HAN Wen-min, YUAN Li-li, YE Tao-feng. Research on the Lead Time Bullwhip Effect Measurement Based on Stochastic Petri Nets [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2011, 19(2): 116-124.
[10]	WANG Chun-feng, ZHANG Ya-na, FANG Zhen-ming. Research on the Overconfidence and the Driving Factors of the Trading Volume [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(4): 43-48.
[11]	CHEN Qi-an, FANG Cai-xia, XIAO Ying-hong. Study on Model of Dividend Payout Policy Based on Senior Manager’s Overconfidence in the Listed Company [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(3): 174-184.
[12]	WANG Shu-ping, KUANG Xiong, WU Zhen-Xin. A Mathematical Model of the Overconfidence Psychology in the Futures Market [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(1): 39-45.
[13]	WANG Wei-jun, TANG Xiao-wo, NI De-bin. Retail’s Decision and the Bullwhip Effect on Delayed Demand Information [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2008, 16(4): 84-89.
[14]	LIAO Cheng-lin, SONG Bo, LI Yi. Analysis on the Existence of the Bullwhip Effect in Virtual Enterprises with Non-Stable Demand [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2006, (1): 43-49.
[15]	HAO Ying, LIU Xing, LIN Chao-nan. An Empirical Research on the General Manager Overconfidence and Investment Decision for the Listed Companies [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2005, (5): 142-148.