Abstract: On the base of analyzing customer life cycle,the chart describing customer state evolution is set up.With the help of state-space model,state shift probability is introduced in order to reckon up the expectation of current customer value.The expectation of underlying customer value could be worked out after shifting to probability and putting in decisive variables.By this,we can get not only the expectation of customer value in any year but also the customer life-time value(customer equity),which will benefit to quantify the gain and loss of customer estate investment in an enterprise.

Key words: customer value, customer equity, state shift, state-space model