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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2011, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 68-75.

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R&D Project Multi-Stage Evaluation Model Based on Real Option Under the Circumstance of Risks

GU Xiao-yan1, HE Feng2, CAI Chen3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;
    2. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China;
    3. Institute of Policy & Management, Chinese A cademy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2010-11-10 Revised:2011-06-13 Online:2011-08-30 Published:2011-08-30

Abstract: R&D project investment decision is the key of R&D management in modern enterprises,and the reasonable and correct R&D project evaluation has great strategic and practical significance.In this paper,on the real option perspective,taking into account the flexibility of R&D project investment,combining the character of stages of R&D project,analyzing comprehensively market risk,technology risk and emergency risk during the lifetime,the multi-stage R&D project evaluation model is established under the circumstance of risks.Finally,through an example conducting horizontal comparison and sensitivity analysis,the correctness and reasonability of model are verified.

Key words: R&D project, real option, risk, stage, evaluation model

CLC Number: