重大铁路工程与区域经济、社会和文化发展

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1381

Abstract

Abstract:

Mega-railway projects hold a crucial position in developing and constructing a strong transportation network in China. Existing methods to quantitatively analyze and evaluate externalities of these mega-railway project are currently inadequate， and quantitative based studies on the externalities of mega-railway projects has important theoretical and practical implications for the sustainable development. Three key questions， i.e. what is the impact of the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway on the regional economy， society and culture development？ What is the mechanism of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway effect？ And is there heterogeneity in the impact of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway on different regions？ To answer these questions， a difference-in-differences （DID） model is proposed basing on the quasi-natural experiment of the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Using panel data from the Qinghai-Tibet region from 2003 to 2020， the effect and mechanism of the opening of Qinghai-Tibet Railway on the economic， social， and cultural development of the regions along the route are explored. Parallel trend test， random selection of treatment groups and instrumental variable method are used to verify the reliability of the research conclusions. The DID method can overcome biases in modelling estimation caused by variable endogeneity and omitted variables， making it an effective method for evaluating the externality on the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. Results show that the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway generally increases the GDP per capita of the regions along the railway， reduces the income gap between urban and rural residents， and significantly increases the number of cultural enterprises and the total tourism income. Meanwhile， the effect of Qinghai-Tibet Railway is sustainable. Mechanism studies find that Qinghai-Tibet Railway promotes the economic， social and cultural development along the line by stimulating investment and developing service industry， promoting employment， increasing population mobility and attracting tourists. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the economic， social， and cultural effects of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway have a greater impact on non-central cities along the railway than on central cities. These findings suggest that the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is conducive to structural transformation and shared prosperity in the Qinghai-Tibet region， and its economic， social and cultural effects are continuous. This quantitative analysis framework for the externalities of mega-railway projects provides theoretical support for promoting the high-quality development of similar projects， as well as the sustainable and harmonious regional development.

Key words: Qinghai-Tibet Railway, economic growth, income gap between urban and rural residents, cultural progress, difference-in-differences model （DID）

CLC Number:

F530.3

Huiyu Zhou, Ruimin Li, Meng Xu. Mega Railway Projects and Regional Economic, Social and Cultural Development: A DID Test Based on Qinghai-Tibet Railway[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(8): 90-99.

Figures/Tables 5

References 40

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变量符号	变量名称	经济含义
pgdp	实际人均GDP	地区经济发展水平
urbrurrate	城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均纯收入	城乡居民收入差距
culcom	文化企业数量	文化发展水平
travel	旅游总收入	旅游业发展水平
RE	青藏铁路效应	青藏铁路开通的影响
industry	第二三产业增加值占GDP比重	产业结构
gov	政府财政支出	政府规模
asset	固定资产投资	投资规模
trade	进出口贸易总额	对外开放程度
labor	城镇单位从业人员数	就业水平
road	公路通车里程/土地面积	基础设施建设水平
student	每万人普通中等学校在校学生数	受教育水平
cat	住宿和餐饮企业数量	住宿餐饮业发展水平
site	A级旅游景区数量	旅游资源
visit	国内外游客总数	人口流动

省份	处理组	对照组
青海省	西宁市、海北藏族自治州、玉树藏族自治州、海西蒙古族藏族自治州	海东市、黄南州、海南州、果洛州
西藏自治区	拉萨市、那曲市	昌都市、林芝市

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnpgdp	urbrurrate	lnculcom	lntravel
RE	0.133^* (1.97)	-0.472^* (-1.95)	0.428^** (2.68)	0.542^* (1.91)
控制变量	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是	是
调整后R²	0.981	0.875	0.967	0.950
观测数	216	216	216	216

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	lnasset	lncat	lnlabor	lnvisit	lnsite
RE	0.130^* (1.87)	0.296^* (1.81)	0.538^* (1.83)	0.350^* (1.84)	0.441^* (1.85)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
调整后R²	0.965	0.979	0.905	0.951	0.904
观测数	216	216	216	216	216

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnpgdp	urbrurrate	lnculcom	lntravel
RE	0.170^** (2.56)	-0.549^* (-1.92)	0.735^*** (3.37)	0.680^** (2.48)
RE×center	-0.166 (-1.45)	0.361 (1.42)	-0.729^*** (-3.35)	-0.593^* (-2.13)
控制变量	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是
城市固定效应	是	是	是	是
调整后R²	0.984	0.875	0.978	0.951
观测数	216	216	216	216

Mega Railway Projects and Regional Economic, Social and Cultural Development: A DID Test Based on Qinghai-Tibet Railway

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