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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2016, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 31-40.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.03.005

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Scenario Analysis of Complete Energy Intensity of Manufacturing Industry in China Based on Input and Output and Non-linear Optimization

LI Gen1, LIU Jia-guo2, ZHAO Jin-lou3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Jiangsu University Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China;
    2. College of Transport Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;
    3. School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
  • Received:2014-07-29 Revised:2015-07-13 Online:2016-03-20 Published:2016-03-18

Abstract: Presently, environmental pollution is still one of the most prominent problems in China, to lower complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is an important approach to reduce consumption and pollution. Based on input and output and non-linear optimization theory, non-linear optimization model of complete energy intensity is constructcd on the basis of minimum target of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry and decision variables of 18 industries' final demands. It introduces import and export coefficients for constraint condition specially, then forecasts and adjusts correlation coefficients of the model based on existing data from input-output table and so on. On the basis of it, three schemes and two scenarios are designed and particle swarm optimization is applied to resolve model. Results show that minimum value range of complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry is from 0.7823 to 0.9048 ton of coal equivalent/ten thousand yuan in 2015. Compared with 2010, the decline rate range is from 8.9% to 21.31%. Under scenario 2 of high scheme, it can realize the goal that complete energy intensity of manufacturing industry decreases by 20%. To achieve this goal, China is supposed to promote the development of manufacturing industry in low and medium energy consumption, reduce complete energy consumption of manufacturing industry in high energy consumption, heighten the consumption and import coefficients and lower the investment and export coefficients reasonably. This paper is beneficial to government departments to formulate scientific and systematic policy of energy conservation and emission reduction and conducive to deepening energy economic and management theory.

Key words: manufacturing industry, complete energy intensity, non-linear optimization model, final demand

CLC Number: