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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 125-133.

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Long-term Fluctuation Effect of Electricity Consumption in Energy-Intensive Industries

LIU Rui-yu1, YE Zi-wan1,2   

  1. 1. Economics and Management School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    2. Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China
  • Received:2011-07-03 Revised:2013-03-10 Online:2014-06-20 Published:2014-06-26

Abstract: To analyze the interaction and continuing impact of impulse response between factors and electricity consumption, electricity consumption of energy-intensive industries is studied from combination of macroeconomic and microcosmic level, and SVAR model is applied to analyze dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and micro-macro variables based on times series data from 1985 to 2009. Through GIRF, the two-way dynamic effects generated by the shock of macro and micro variables and electricity consumption are also explained.Further,through the application of VD technology, the contribution rate of electricity consumption is estimated as structural impact from variables fluctuations. The results of this paper indicate that firstly,long-term fluctuation effect exists between China's energy-intensive electricity consumption and GDP, industrial output value and investment.Secondly, external variables, the investment structure, the level of urbanization, are not highly related to electricity consumption, which has obvious long-term effect on GDP. At last, as rigid variable of inner energy-intensive industry sector, the impact on electricity consumption by investment is weaker than output, though there is a certain continuity. The contributions of microeconomic variables are relatively prominent to the changes of electricity consumption.

Key words: energy-intensive industry, electricity consumption, SVAR, GIRF, long-term fluctuation effect

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