基于投入-产出模型的灾后经济非均衡与路径恢复研究

Abstract

Abstract: The existing input-output model can't adequately describe the imbalance of economy after disaster. Introducing the labor market(L=lx)into the open IO model(x=Ax+f)and reestablishing the closed model(x=M·x), it can better describe the imbalance of economic circular flow by the relationship of labor, final demand and total output after the disaster, and set the beginning of reconstruction. Based on the work of predecessors, the calculation method of F matrix in the closed IO model is improved in this paper; the imbalance of economy after the disaster is simulated by introducing the loss coefficient, and the possible recovery paths is searched by the scenario analysis. Then the output loss of Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 is computed by the IO table of Sichuan in 2007, and the validity of this model is verified by simulating the possible recovery paths. The results shows that this model can help government to find recovery "bottleneck" promptly after the disaster and make scientific decision of reconstruction.

Key words: input-output model, imbalance of economy, path recovery, Wenchuan earthquake

CLC Number:

F223

ZHU Jing. Imbalance of Economy after Disaster Based on Input-output Model and Path Recovery[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(4): 121-128.

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Imbalance of Economy after Disaster Based on Input-output Model and Path Recovery

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