我国提高能源效率的目标设计

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, the main forces of China’s energy efficiency evolution are analyzed based on both the static and dynamic panel data models, and the potential of energy saving in the 12^th five-year period is forecasted based on the regression model selected by in-sample and out-of-sample model selection criteria. The results demonstrate that per capita income, industry structure, urbanization level, governmental expenditure for research, technology progress, energy price and capital adjustment speed all have great impacts on China’s energy efficiency. The further results of scenario simulations show that the potential of energy saving in the 12^th five-year period is about to reach roughly 14%, but seems hard to surpass 17%.

Key words: energy efficiency, energy intensity, target design

CLC Number:

F062.1

CAI Sheng-hua, DU Li-min, BI Qing-hua. Improvement Target of Energy Efficiency and Its Design[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (3): 152-160.

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Improvement Target of Energy Efficiency and Its Design

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