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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2009, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (5): 183-192.

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Review of Researches on Stochastic CGE Model

FAN Jin1,2, YAN Bin-jian1,2, HIROSHI Sakamoto3   

  1. 1. Research Centre for Jiangsu Applied Economics, Jiangsu Administration Institute, Nanjing 210004, China;
    2.College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agriculture University, Nanjing 210095, China;
    3. The International Centre for the Study of East Asian Development, Kitakyushu 8030814, Japan
  • Received:2009-02-15 Revised:2009-08-31 Online:2009-10-31 Published:2009-10-31

Abstract: CGE model is an efficient instrument for policy analysis, and has been widely applied in the research fields in trade, finance, income distribution, energy and environmentl However, it has been heavily affected in efficiency for its strict assumptions on the structure of equilibrium, the form of functions and the specification of parametersl And even,"a miss is as good as a mile". Therefore, researchers attempt to introduce some stochastic factors to overcome the barriers. By reviewing the existing studies on stochastic CGE model, this paper draws on the following conclusions:(1) Stochastic CGE can solve the problems which CGE model comes across; (2) The existing stochastic CGE model mainly concentrated on the studies of the free parameters, equations and data;(3) Different people should distinguish primary and secondary. The theoretic researchers should improve and unify the existed content and methods, and extend the stochastic content further. The empirical researchers should enhance robust test of the model, and improve its credibility. The decision-makers should recognize and apply the simulated conclusions scientifically.

Key words: stochastic CGE model, parameter, policy analysis, review

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