效益分享型合同节水管理项目的投资风险分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1799

Abstract

Abstract:

Water Saving Management Contract （WSMC） is an innovative water-saving investment model， and Water Service Company （WSCO） as the major player bears a relatively high investment risk. In this regard， the investment risk of benefit-sharing WSMC project is analyzed from WSCO's perspective. Firstly， the net present value （NPV） is used to assess the economic value of the project. The geometric Brownian motion is used to deal with the uncertainty of water-saving benefits and investment over the lifetime， considering the fluctuation of the maintenance cost， water-saving， and water price. On this basis， the water-saving investment and benefits of water users and WSCO are simulated separately by combining contract parameters including contract period and benefit allocation proportion， and the probability that the NPV of WSCO is less than zero is set as an evaluation index to establish the investment risk assessment model. Subsequently， contract period decision models are constructed through benefit-risk equilibrium， with the objectives of maximizing water-saving benefits for water users and minimizing project investment risk， respectively， and the optimal contract periods under these two scenarios are determined. Finally， the applicability of the risk assessment model is verified with an actual pilot project， and the results shows that the project investment risk is 53.63%； Compared with the 6-year contract period without considering the benefit-risk equilibrium， the optimal contract periods for the two scenarios are 7 and 10 years after optimization， and the investment risk is reduced by 10.65% and 24.73%， correspondingly； Further， the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the expected annual water savings have a significant impact on the investment risk. Some information can be provided for WSCO to make investment decisions and design the contract period of WSMC project.

Key words: water saving management contract, risk assessment, contract period

CLC Number:

C930

Xiao-sheng WANG,Xiao-jie AN,Hai-ying GUO. Analysis of Investment Risk of Benefit-sharing Water Saving Management Contract Project[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(9): 196-204.

Figures/Tables 14

参数	符号	数据
运营维护成本	年增长系数 $δ$	1.005
	初值 $H 0$	0.073
	波动率 $σ H$	0.05
水价	初值 $P 0$	3.765元/m3
	漂移率 $μ P$	0.0523
	波动率 $σ P$	0.0856
节水量	初值 $μ P$	0.1763
节水量	波动率 $σ K$	0.01
期望收益率	北京国泰WSCO收益率 $r W$	22%
期望收益率	河北工程大学收益率 $r U$	10%

合同期 $t$	河北工程大学 $α (t)$	北京国泰WSCO $1 - α (t)$
1	0	100
2	0	100
3	0	100
4	20	80
5	30	70
6	50	50

实际	$N P V ? W 实际 5$	-29.61
模拟	$E [N P V W 5]$	-30.57

序号	$E U$ （万元）	$E W$ （万元）	用水户利益最大化	WSMC项目投资风险最小化
1	2800	75	10	13
2	2950	55	9	11
3	2850	50	9	13
4	3000	40	8	10
5	2900	25	8	12
6	3050	25	8	9
7	3100	10	7	8
8	2950	0	7	11
9	3000	-25	6	10
10	3050	-50	6	9

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年份	节水收益
2015年	424
2016年	424
2017年	424
2018年	339.20
2019年	296.80

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Analysis of Investment Risk of Benefit-sharing Water Saving Management Contract Project

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