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Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2018, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (11): 22-30.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.11.003

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Impacts of Energy Price Fluctuations on Energy-Environment-Economy System in China

GUO Zheng-quan1, ZHANG Xing-ping2, ZHENG Yu-hua3   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
    3. Business School, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 100048, China
  • Received:2017-08-14 Revised:2018-01-26 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2019-01-23

Abstract: Recently China has experienced many changes in energy field including coal and oil price decline, rapid development of renewable energy, levying environmental tax in 2018, and so on. Energy price fluctuation has significant impacts on the economic and environmental system since energy is an important input in production. A computable general equilibrium model is conducted to explore the impacts of energy prices fluctuations on the China's Energy-Economy-Environment system in various scenarios, in which we take into account the fossil energy prices decline,technical progress in clean power, carbon tax policy and the electricity market reform.
The energy sectors are disaggregated in detail based on the 2012 Input-Output table of China. The petroleum and natural gas extraction sector is disaggregated into two subsectors of petroleum extraction sector and natural gas extractionsector by using the bi-proportional scaling method. The electric power sector is disaggregated into two subsectors of thermal electricity sector and clean electricity sector. Moreover, the clean electricity is disaggregated into four subdivisions including nuclear electricity, hydroelectricity, wind power, solar energy and others. Consequently, the energy sectors in the CGE model include 11 subsectors including the coal, coking, crude oil, petroleum, natural gas, gas, thermal electricity, nuclear electricity, hydroelectricity, wind power and solar energy and others.
The empirical results show that the decline of fossil energy price in various policy scenarios has positive effects on actual GDP and social welfare. But it will negatively affect the environmental system, since it will increase energy consumption and carbon emissions, and restrain the clean electricity demand. While the carbon tax policy has the opposite effects, a dynamic adjusted carbon tax policy associated with the fossil energy price fluctuation is an effective policy choice to promote clean power development and mitigate fossil energy consumption and carbon emissions. When the technique efficiency of clean renewable energy is improved significantly, the market-oriented tariff mechanism is conducive to the development of clean renewable power. Otherwise, the electricity price mandated by the government is advantageous. The research results have intensive policy implications.

Key words: computable general equilibrium model, energy price, energy sectors subdivision, carbon tax policy

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