我国工业增加值季节波动非线性研究——基于SEATV-STAR模型

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.04.002

Abstract

Abstract: Most of the macroeconomic time series have seasonal fluctuations and if the seasonal fluctuations are truly nonlinear, then the methods of seasonal adjusted or traditional season models using linear methods to deal with seasonal fluctuations are may be improper. Based on SEATV-STAR model, "from the special to general" testing strategies ware applied to investigate the seasonal fluctuation of China's industrial added value and the results are as follows: seasonal fluctuation of industrial added value has the properties of structural time-varying and nonlinear change, while the periodic fluctuation is linear. The factors such as technological progress and economic system transition are the main influence factors to cause seasonal fluctuation's continuous structural change. Besides, cyclical fluctuation of industrial added value results in seasonal fluctuation's asymmetric change. In the peak periods of industrial added value, seasonal amplitude reduce while quarter 1th&2nd's growth speed improve significantly.

Key words: SEATV-STAR model, smooth transition, structural time-varying, seasonal fluctuation change

CLC Number:

F402.4

WEI Li-li, XIANG Shu-jian. Research on the Nonlinearity of Seasonal Fluctuations of China's Industrial Added Value——Based on SEATV-STAR model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(4): 10-18.

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Research on the Nonlinearity of Seasonal Fluctuations of China's Industrial Added Value——Based on SEATV-STAR model

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