基于GERT的优质农产品质量链风险控制研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1128

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为加快优质农产品质量控制体系发展，提高优质农产品供给能力，本文基于GERT理论将质量链环节、工艺、质量（控制）活动等三个层级有机地嵌合在同一网络分析框架，分析优质农产品质量风险传递网络表征，通过贝叶斯更新网络参数的方式从“人机料法环”多个方面研究风险控制路径，进而以质量风险和风险控制成本最小为优化目标，构建农产品质量链风险传递与风险控制模型。在此基础上，以垂直一体化苹果生产企业为例，厘清了质量风险增殖传递机制，并结合风险控制成本提出优质农产品最优成本-风险控制策略。研究表明，由于各环节工艺和质量活动不同，其质量风险增殖量也不尽相同，但源头治理对减少质量风险传递，防止风险增殖仍至关重要；“人机料法环”多方面的风险控制对于降低风险隐患效果显著，但会带来高昂的成本，企业可以根据自身禀赋情况先选择“高”性价比的风险控制策略，再逐步转变为全方位的风险控制；在企业进行风险控制决策时，应当对公司本身的禀赋情况进行评估，因情施策。

关键词: 优质农产品, 质量链, GERT, 贝叶斯, 风险增殖, 风险控制

Abstract:

In order to accelerate the development of quality control system of high-quality agricultural products and improve the supply capacity of high-quality agricultural products， based on the GERT theory， the three levels of quality chain links， processes and quality （control） activities are nested in the same network analysis framework， the network characterization of quality risk transfer of high-quality agricultural products is analyzed， and the parameters of the network are updated by means of Bayesian updating from the “human-machine-data-fa-environment” multiple aspects to study the risk control path. “By updating the network parameters in a Bayesian way， the risk control path is studied from multiple aspects， and then the risk transfer and risk control model of agricultural product quality chain is constructed with the optimization goal of minimizing the quality risk and risk control cost. On this basis， the vertically integrated apple production enterprise is taken as an example to clarify the quality risk proliferation transfer mechanism， and the optimal cost-risk control strategy for high-quality agricultural products is proposed in combination with the risk control cost. It is shown that， due to the different processes and quality activities in each link， the amount of quality risk proliferation is not the same， but the source management is still crucial to reduce the transmission of quality risk and prevent the proliferation of risk； “human-machine-material-method-environment” multi-faceted risk control is effective in reducing the risk of hidden danger， but it will bring about high costs， and the enterprise can choose the first one according to its own endowment situation， and then choose the first one according to its own endowment situation. Enterprises can choose “high” cost-effective risk control strategies according to their own endowment， and then gradually change to all-round risk control； when enterprises make decisions on risk control， they should assess their own endowment， and apply measures according to their circumstances.

Key words: quality agricultural products, quality chain, GERT, Bayesian, risk multiplication, risk control

中图分类号:

F203

李光泗, 张少博. 基于GERT的优质农产品质量链风险控制研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2025, 33(9): 236-247.

Guangsi Li, Shaobo Zhang. Research on Risk Control of Quality Chain of Quality Agricultural Products Based on GERT[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(9): 236-247.

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