基于贝叶斯网络的航空安全中不安全信息分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.12.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对航空安全中收集到的不安全信息，本文将安全检查发现的问题进行了分类，建立了民航安全检查的故障树模型，同时利用故障树模型进行了最小割集、结构重要度的定性分析。然后利用贝叶斯网络的学习能力结合故障树模型最终构建了民航安全检查贝叶斯网络模型，基于某航空公司安全检查发现问题的数据并利用贝叶斯网络的双向推理计算得到各影响因素对不安全事件的影响程度和不安全事件发生时各影响因素的重要程度。基于民航安全检查贝叶斯网络模型分析，本文得出个体原因、设施不完善、信息沟通因素最易导致工作流程管理中发现问题；管理流程、知识技能不足最易导致人员管理中发现问题；个体原因、培训、设备故障最易导致设备管理中发现问题。

关键词: 安全管理, 安全检查, 贝叶斯网络, 故障树, 影响因素

Abstract: In view of the unsafe events information collected in aviation safety, the data of the unsafe events found in the safety inspection is studied for the study. The problems found in the safety inspection are classified based on two classification principles, one of which is the factors related to data, and the other of which is related to human. The factors related to the human include training, supervision, staff deployment, information communication, knowledge, skills and several other aspects. The problem is divided into three categories:problems in the management of workflow, problems in the personnel management and problems in the equipment management. What's more, 10 basic reasons are summerized and the fault tree model of the civil aviation safety inspection is built. Besides, the fault tree model is used in the qualitative analysis of the minimum cut and structural importance. Then the NPC algorithm is used to infer the structure of the Bayesian network and study the parameters of the Bayesian network with the help of the EM algorithm. Combining the Bayesian network learning ability with the fault tree model, the Bayesian network model is presented for civil aviation safety inspection. Finally, based on the practical data collected from the airline security check, the impact of various factors is analyzed by use of the Bayesian network and come out with some conclusions. Individual factors, imperfect facilities and information communication are most likely to cause problems in the management of workflow. Management process and the deficiency of related knowledge and skills are most likely to cause problems in personnel management. Individual factors, training and equipment breakdowns are most likely to cause problems in device management. The research of this paper aims to provide an analytical method for the analysis and evaluation of aviation maintenance safety information. The Bayesian network model is constructed to solve the problem of civil aviation safety inspection in reality, which has pretty practical application value.

Key words: safety management, safety inspection, Bayesian network (BN), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), influence factors

中图分类号:

F562

许保光, 王蓓蓓, 池宏, 邵雪焱, 高敏刚. 基于贝叶斯网络的航空安全中不安全信息分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(12): 118-129.

XU Bao-guang, WANG Bei-bei, CHI Hong, SHAO Xue-yan, GAO Min-gang. Insecurity Information Analysis in Civil Aviation Safety Based on Bayesian Network[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(12): 118-129.

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