我国质量提升率测算及其对经济增长的贡献率研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1180

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于经济增长理论，提取质量要素构建“技术进步-资本增长-质量提升”的多指标多原因结构方程模型，并利用蒙特卡洛-贝叶斯插补法测算1998-2017年的质量提升率及其对经济增长的贡献率。研究发现：第一，创新会拉动质量提升，质量提升会提高产品异质性进而形成高质量贸易关系，显著促进对外贸易额增长。但会增加能源消耗，亟待转变能源结构；第二，质量提升率均值5.11%，呈现阶梯式上升态势，良好的国际贸易环境有利于要素流通、要素质量提升，从而获取更高水平的要素收入。国家宏观调控措施在保障要素供给质量、提高配置效率和均衡供需结构方面发挥重要作用；第三，质量提升率对经济增长的贡献率最大值16.82%、均值8.84%，低于技术进步和资本增长的贡献率，但趋势上存在交互影响和互补作用，质量提升已经成为高质量发展的重要显性表达。

关键词: 结构方程模型；贝叶斯估计；贝叶斯插补法；质量提升率；经济增长贡献率

Abstract: In the context of economic globalization, factor mobility promotes the extension of factor connotations. Factor quality has become a major factor influencing factor income growth, and the difference in factor quality effects between primary and higher factors is becoming more pronounced. Although the contribution of factor quality to economic growth is objective, there are limitations and underestimation in the measurement of factor quality improvement rate. Stripping factor quality from the evaluation of factor quantity supply and measuring the factor quality improvement rate are difficult issues. However, it is an important guide for balancing the factor structure and improving the efficiency of factor supply.

Key words: structural equation model; Bayesian estimation; Bayesian imputation method; quality improvement rate; contribution rate of economic grow

中图分类号:

F224.0

周涵婷, 宋明顺, 程龙生, 郑素丽, 蒋晶. 我国质量提升率测算及其对经济增长的贡献率研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021, 29(12): 203-214.

ZHOU Han-ting, SONG Ming-shun, CHENG Long-sheng, ZHENG Su-li, JIANG Jin. Calculating the Rate of Quality Improvement and its Contribution Rate of Economic Growth in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(12): 203-214.

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