基于系统动力学的生态文明建设政策模拟与仿真研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.08.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生态文明建设涉及生态环境保护、资源集约节约、环境治理改善等诸多问题，是一个复杂的动态过程。为探究不同政策对该过程的影响，本文从经济、人口、教育、科技、环境治理等要素出发，构建生态文明建设系统的动力学模型，设计3类共11种仿真情景，模拟不同政策及组合政策作用下中国生态文明的建设情况。结果表明：（1）延续当前发展模式中国生态文明建设水平将进一步提高，资源节约领域的进步最为显著；（2）单一政策情景下科技政策对于生态文明建设的整体推动作用最大，生育政策对于生态文明建设的促进作用优于基准情景，但弱于教育政策与环境治理政策的作用效果；（3）组合政策情景下，科技与环境治理政策组合对于生态保护领域的推动作用最大，教育与科技政策组合能够实现最高的资源利用效率，提高生态文明建设水平的政策组合选择还应结合环境治理领域长短期目标的实现进行，前一组合能够较快实现目标，而后一组合能够实现更稳定的进步；（4）科技政策在单一政策情景与组合政策情景中均成为重要的政策因子，印证了科技创新在生态文明建设中的重要作用。

关键词: 生态文明建设, 支撑政策, 政策模拟, 多情景仿真, 系统动力学

Abstract: Ecological civilization construction in China is a complex dynamic process, regarded as crucial as the construction of economy, politics, culture and society, evolving issues including ecological and environmental protection, resource conservation and environmental governance. Existing studies on ecological civilization construction can be divided into two groups: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The former ones focus more on the concept, connotation and realization path, while the latter ones on performance evaluation. Also, ecological civilization construction includes multiple factors such as economy, science and technology (S&T), education, policy, and environmental governance, changes of which will affect other factors and further the entire system.However, interdisciplinary studies are rarely conducted in this field, especially from the perspective of system science.Besides, fewer of the quantitative havenoticed the path and impact of different policies on ecological civilization construction.Therefore, investigating policy simulations of ecological civilization construction in China based on a systematic approach is of great significance.
For this purpose, a dynamic model of the ecological civilization construction system in China is built in this study based on systematic analysis of this process. Simulation period isfrom 2005 to 2030, during which period 2005-2017 is taken as the simulation interval and period 2018-2030 the simulation forecast interval. Four types of policy driving factors (i.e., birth, education, S&T, environmental governance) are set. 11 types of simulation policy scenarios in 3 categories are further constructedfor investigating the effects of differentpolicies and policy combinations on ecological civilization construction.Results show that: (1) Under current development mode,level of ecological civilization construction in China will continue to be enhanced,with the greatestprogress in the field of resource conservation. (2) Under single policy scenarios,S&T policywill promote the development of ecological civilizationto the greatest extent. The promotion effectiveness of birth policy is higher than the benchmark scenario, but weaker than that of education policy and environmental governance policy. (3) Under the combination policy scenarios,the combination of S&T and environmental governance policypromotesecological protectionmost powerfully. The combination of education and S&T policy can achieve the highest resource utilization efficiency.Yet choosing policy combination to improve the level of ecological civilization construction should also be combined with the long and short term of environmental governance.The former combination can help achieve the goal faster, while the latter combination promises a more stable progress. (4)S&T has become an important policy factor in both single policy scenarios and combined policy scenarios,indicating its significant role in ecological civilization construction.This study provides a reference for policy formulation and implementation as well as decision-making for promoting the efficiency and performance of China's ecological civilization construction.

Key words: ecological civilization construction, supporting policies, policy simulation, multi-scenario simulation, system dynamics

中图分类号:

刘开迪, 杨多贵, 王光辉, 周志田. 基于系统动力学的生态文明建设政策模拟与仿真研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(8): 209-220.

LIU Kai-di, YANG Duo-gui, WANG Guang-hui, ZHOU Zhi-tian. Policy Modeling and Simulation on Ecological Civilization Construction in China Based on System Dynamics[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(8): 209-220.

参考文献

[1] 习近平对生态文明建设作出重要指示李克强作出批示[EB/OL]. (2016-12-02)[2018-10-31]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016-12/02/c_1120042543.htm.
[2] 中共中央国务院关于加快推进生态文明建设的意见[N]. 人民日报, 2015-05-06(01).
[3] 杨春平. 生态文明建设是一个复杂的系统工程[EB/OL]. (2015-06-03)[2018-10-15]. http://www.gov.cn/2015-06/03/content_2872678.htm.
[4] 胡锦涛在中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL]. (2012-11-17)[2018-10-31].http://www.xinhuanet.com/18cpcnc/2012-11/17/c_113711665.htm.
[5] 人民日报评论员. 深刻认识加强生态文明建设的重大意义[N]. 人民日报, 2018-05-20(01).
[6] Morrison R S. Ecological democracy[M]. Boston:South End Press, 1995.
[7] 何小钢, 张耀辉. 技术进步、节能减排与发展方式转型——基于中国工业36个行业的实证考察[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2012, 29(3):19-33.
[8] 赵领娣, 郝青. 人力资本和科技进步对能源效率的影响效应——基于区域面板数据[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2013, 15(1):19-25+33.
[9] 成艾华. 技术进步、结构调整与中国工业减排——基于环境效应分解模型的分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(3):41-47.
[10] Messner D. A social contract for low carbon and sustainable development:Reflections on non-linear dynamics of social realignments and technological innovations in transformation processes[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, 98:260-270.
[11] Witjes S, Lozano R. Towards a more circular economy:Proposing a framework linking sustainable public procurement and sustainable business models[J]. Resources Conservation and Recycling, 2016, 112:37-44.
[12] Rees W E. Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J]. Environment and Urbanization, 1992, 4(2):121-130.
[13] Singh R K, Murty H R, Gupta S K, et al. An overview of sustainability assessment methodologies[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2009, 9(2):189-212.
[14] 成金华, 陈军, 易杏花. 矿区生态文明评价指标体系研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2013, 23(2):1-10.
[15] Orsato R J, Garcia A, Mendes-Da-Silva W, et al. Sustainability indexes:Why join in? A study of the ‘Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE)’ in Brazil[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 96:161-170.
[16] Dias J G. Environmental sustainability measurement in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index:An empirical analysis of its reliability[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2017, 73:589-596.
[17] Dialga I. A sustainability index of mining countries[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 179:278-291.
[18] 柴琪宸, 郭亚军, 宫诚举, 等. 中国省域生态文明建设协调发展程度的综合评价[J].中国管理科学, 2017, 25(7):184-190.
[19] Meadows D H, Meadows D L, Randers J, et al. The limits to growth[M]. New York:Universe Books, 1972.
[20] 张子珩, 濮励杰, 周秀慧. 乌海市可持续发展的系统动力学模型仿真[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2010, 24(12):55-60.
[21] 孙才志, 陈玉娟. 辽宁沿海经济带水资源承载力研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2011, 27(3):63-68+77.
[22] 李健, 孙康宁. 基于系统动力学的京津冀工业绿色发展路径研究[J]. 软科学, 2018, 32(11):113-119.
[23] 佟贺丰, 杨阳, 王静宜, 等. 中国绿色经济发展展望——基于系统动力学模型的情景分析[J].中国软科学,2015, (6):20-34.
[24] 周雄勇, 许志端, 郗永勤. 中国节能减排系统动力学模型及政策优化仿真[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2018, 38(6):1422-1444.
[25] 肖仁俊, 董志, 李秀婷, 等. 新疆能源可持续发展的系统动力学模型与分析[J]. 管理评论, 2014, 26(8):31-41.
[26] 李文超, 田立新, 贺丹. 经济-能源-环境可持续发展的系统动力学研究——以中国为例[J]. 系统科学学报, 2014, 22(3):54-57.
[27] Xiao Liangang, Zhao Rongqin. China's new era of ecological civilization[J]. Science, 2017, 358:1008-1009.
[28] 中共中央国务院关于加快推进生态文明建设的意见[EB/OL]. (2015-05-05)[2018-10-31].http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2015-05/05/c_1115187518.htm.
[29] 国家标准化委员会.国家标准委关于印发《生态文明建设标准体系发展行动指南(2018-2020年)》的通知[EB/OL]. (2018-06-07)[2018-10-31].http://www.sac.gov.cn/sgybzyb/gzdt/bmxw/201806/t20180607_342464.htm.
[30] United Nations. The aging of populations and its economic and social implications[R]. Working Paper, United Nations, 1956.