关键词: 消费者估值, 风险厌恶, 折价预售, 定金膨胀, 期权订购

Abstract:

The joint strategy of flexible ordering and pre-sale can reduce the risk of inventory overstock and product out of stock caused by uncertain demand. However， how to formulate pre-sale strategies to attract more consumers to pre order products and formulate more flexible ordering strategies is an important issue for retailers to optimize their operations. Two pre-sale modes are considered， namely， retailer discount and “deposit inflation”， and the risk aversion of strategic consumers' pre-sale behavior is considered， consumer valuation and utility function are constructed， and the optimal pre-sale price of discount pre-sale and the optimal final payment price under “deposit inflation” pre-sale are discussed； The wholesale ordering and option combination ordering strategies of retailers under two pre-sale modes are studied， and the corresponding optimal total ordering quantity is obtained. Through comparison and numerical calculation， the influence of different influencing factors on the ordering and pre-sale decision choice is analyzed， and the critical threshold under different strategies is obtained. The research shows that under the same pre-sale mode， retailers' option ordering is better than wholesale ordering， and the optimal expected profit of retailers' option combination ordering is greater than that of wholesale ordering. Option portfolio ordering is more flexible； Consumer valuation， wholesale price and deposit inflation rate affect retailers' pre-sale decisions， and the higher the degree of consumer risk aversion， the wider the application scope of “deposit inflation” pre-sale， and the more favorable the retailers choose “deposit inflation” pre-sale mode. The joint strategy of option portfolio ordering and “deposit inflation” pre-sale can effectively reduce the operational risk of retail enterprises caused by demand fluctuations.

Key words: consumer valuation, risk aversion, deposit inflation, discount pre-sale, option order