突发事件公众准备意愿的影响因素——基于实证数据的分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.12.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 突发事件是"低概率、高损失"的极端事件。突发事件风险客观存在，公众的应对准备意愿及行为对减缓突发事件风险及降低突发事件损失有着重要影响。但实际上，公众普遍表现出较弱的准备意愿，很少主动采取准备措施及行为。为了解释公众为避免突发事件损失而事先采取应对准备的行为差异，本文基于实证调查数据，将保护动机理论（PMT）应用于公众准备意愿的预测研究，建立突发事件公众认知与准备意愿理论模型，运用多元回归分析及结构方程模型方法，验证公众风险认知、应对认知与准备意愿之间的路径关系。其中风险认知包括可能性和严重性认知两个变量，应对认知包括应对效能、自我效能和应对成本认知三个变量。实证数据通过问卷调查的方式获取，调查对象涉及湖北省武汉市七大行政区域共405位城区居民。数据分析结果表明，公众的准备意愿受到风险认知及应对认知的共同影响，相比于风险认知，应对认知对准备意愿有更大的解释效力；年龄、教育程度、收入等三类人口统计学特征对准备意愿有一定的解释效力。研究结论显示，为了促使公众形成准备意愿，风险沟通不仅应考虑突发事件风险发生的可能性及后果的严重性，更需要关注应对效能、自我效能以及应对成本等对公众准备意愿有着显著影响的因素。

关键词: 突发事件, 公众, 准备意愿, 保护动机理论, 风险认知, 应对认知

Abstract: Emergency events are low-probability and high-consequence events. Since emergency events risk exists objectively, public preparedness intentions and behavior have an important impact on risk mitigation and damage reduction. It has been widely observed that people often fail to act, or do very little, to lessen their risk of emergency events damage. In order to explain the variance in public's precautionary action to avoid emergency events damage, a model of emergency events public perception and preparedness intention is develeped. This article aims to predict public preparedness intentions by testing a path model, including risk perception and coping appraisal based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). Causal relations are tested by means of hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). Risk perception is composed of the variables "probability" and "severity", and coping appraisal is comprised of the three variables "response efficacy", "self-efficacy", and "response cost". Data are collected through questionnaire surveys in seven administrative areas in Wuhan of Hubei province (n=405). Overall, the results indicate that both risk perception and coping appraisal influence public preparedness intentions. And the coping appraisal is better than the risk perception at predicting preparedness intentions. In addition, the data show the explanatory power of three demographic variables, including age, education, and income. To motivate the public to take their share in emergency events risk preparedness intentions and behavior, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of probability and its potential consequences, but also the response efficacy, self-efficacy and response costs, which are statistically significant factors influence public preparedness intentions.

Key words: emergency events, public, preparedness intention, protection motivation theory, risk perception, coping appraisal

中图分类号:

C931

黄履珺, 佘廉. 突发事件公众准备意愿的影响因素——基于实证数据的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2018, 26(12): 146-157.

HUANG Lv-jun, SHE Lian. Factors that Influence Emergency Events Public Preparedness Intention——Based on Empirical Research[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2018, 26(12): 146-157.

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