基于随机Petri网的突发事件信息演化模型

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.012

中国管理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 113-121.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.03.012

基于随机Petri网的突发事件信息演化模型

王治莹^1,2, 李勇建², 王伟康¹

1. 安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院, 安徽马鞍山 243032;
2. 南开大学商学院, 天津 300071

收稿日期:2018-03-07 修回日期:2018-10-30 出版日期:2020-03-20 发布日期:2020-04-08
通讯作者: 王治莹(1987-),男(汉族),山东济南人,安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:突发事件应急管理,E-mail:zywang87@163.com. E-mail:zywang87@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71704001，71725004，71601002，71572125）；安徽省自然科学基金资助项目（1808085QG224，1708085MG168）

Evolving Model of Information Towards Emergencies Based on Stochastic Petri Net

WANG Zhi-ying^1,2, LI Yong-jian², WANG Wei-kang¹

1. School of Management Science&Engineering, Anhui University of Technology, Ma'anshan 243032, China;
2. Business School, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China

Received:2018-03-07 Revised:2018-10-30 Online:2020-03-20 Published:2020-04-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 突发事件爆发后通常会引发事件信息的演化现象，而信息演化可能导致的负面舆情危机严重影响社会生活秩序，如何准确把握突发事件信息的演化规律是社会发展新形势下公共事务风险治理的重要内容。首先采用案例分析和结构化描述方法提取突发事件信息演化现象的内外部属性，并提出其演化系统。进而，构建该系统的随机Petri网模型及其同构的马尔可夫链。最后，通过情景仿真研究系统的均衡状态变动规律及其调控问题。研究过程中，提出突发事件信息演化现象的结构化描述、演化系统及不同演化状态，得出系统均衡状态变动规律及其调控机制。在此基础上，指出未来应考虑带有碰撞和耦合机制的多种信息演化规律及其调控问题。

关键词: 突发事件, 信息演化, 随机Petri网, 马尔可夫链

Abstract: The evolvement of information towards emergencies (ITE) is usually triggered by emergences, and the negative public opinion crisis caused probably by the evolvement of ITE has a serious impact on the order in social life. Thus how to accurately grasp the evolving law of ITE is an important part of risk governance for public affairs under new situations of social development. However, few of the existing studies consider the problems of structured description and equilibrium changing law for the evolvement of ITE, and pay attention to modelling the evolvement process of ITE and its regulation mechanism from the perspective of system. Therefore, the internal and external attributes of the evolvement of ITE are first extracted by case analysis and structured description method. Then, an evolving system is designed according to the time sequence relationships of attributes. Further, a stochastic Petri net model of the system and its isomorphic Markov chain are constructed respectively. Finally, taking the evolvement of ITE in 2009 source blockage incident of Limin radiation factory in Qi county of Henan province as an example, some experiments of scenario simulation are carried out to study the system equilibrium changes and its regulation. The studies propose the structured description, evolving system and different evolving states of the evolvement of ITE, and obtain the changing law of system equilibrium and its regulation mechanism. The results not only can provide normative guidance for the equilibrium study of complex information evolving process, but also can help to identify the impact of regulation measures on the probability of information evolves to some negative states (negative public opinion, rumors and secondary events, etc.). On such basis, the problems of evolving law and its regulation for multiple ITE with collision and coupling mechanism are suggested to be taken into account in future studies.

Key words: emergencies, information evolvement, stochastic Petri net, Markov chain

中图分类号:

王治莹, 李勇建, 王伟康. 基于随机Petri网的突发事件信息演化模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(3): 113-121.

WANG Zhi-ying, LI Yong-jian, WANG Wei-kang. Evolving Model of Information Towards Emergencies Based on Stochastic Petri Net[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(3): 113-121.

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基于随机Petri网的突发事件信息演化模型

Evolving Model of Information Towards Emergencies Based on Stochastic Petri Net

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